• Member Statistics

    15,888
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Binworkin
    Newest Member
    Binworkin
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Recommended Posts

From RAH :

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM Monday... A Cold Air Damming (CAD) event along with an east coast storm system appears likely by late week into next weekend. The polar and subtropical jets are forecast to generally phase late week along the eastern United States. This allows the potential for a storm to develop along the SE Coast as the parent mid/upper level shortwave trough deepens, with a negative tilt trough noted in some models. The most recent suite of guidance is coming into better agreement in the phasing of the jets, allowing a stronger east coast system to take shape off the SC/NC coast late Friday or Friday night, yet still having timing issues on the low deepening off the SC/NC coast. Since there continues to be spread of track and timing differences, we will continue a rather low confidence forecast for timing of rain. Although it appears likely a system will affect the region with a chilly rain sometime Friday into Saturday or Sunday. With a chilly parent surface high pressure expected to build down the eastern seaboard ahead of the developing storm late week, the system will have a winter look and feel to it! Expect CAD to occur with rain, drizzle, and fog and a chilly NE wind - which will likely keep daytime highs in the 40s for some areas in the CAD region Friday or Saturday, or both days. These readings would be 15- 25 degrees colder than normal (if this occurs) - a stark contrast to the hot early part of October.

Man, straight from AC to heat this year. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Models are underestimating the strength of the wedge!

No way rates will overcome... Too damn early for that, now if this was 6 weeks down the pipe... Different story

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the GSP AFD......Well that escalated quickly considering where we were just 10 days ago.  Of course it is late October so not all that unusual for the mountains.  Sure would have been nice to have this Miller A in January.  What a classic set up.

There may be just enough cold air at the highest
elevations to mix with or turn to snow at times, especially at the
beginning and end of the event. Little or no accumulations are
expected through Saturday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance?

From RAH...

The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track 
of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area 
get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more 
drizzly in nature.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Solak said:

How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance?

From RAH...

The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track 
of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area 
get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more 
drizzly in nature.

Maybe they’re finally remembering that we always get dry slotted and just getting it out of the way early, instead of finally getting to it as the sun is coming out during the storm.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess WRAL is expecting it, too. Quite a bit less than what  WPC shows.

p120i.gif

Rain is in the forecast starting on Friday and lasting into Sunday. Here's a look at the rainfall potential from Friday morning through Sunday evening. It would be a good idea to keep the umbrellas handy through the weekend. @WRALWeather

No automatic alt text available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Look at that FV3 close the gap and run neck and neck with the big dogs.Ukie actually slipped past the Euro and is king for a day.

 

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

FV3 came in 3rd...impressive

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS  / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal.  (or it seems that way)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal.  (or it seems that way)

The most important thing for me is Halloween is dry. Right now my grid forecast is 74/59 with sunny to partly cloudy. That sounds great to me... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The most important thing for me is Halloween is dry. Right now my grid forecast is 74/59 with sunny to partly cloudy. That sounds great to me... 

I agree with that.  It won't ruin my kids' festivities.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

near DT Greenville, Halloween forecast is 73/58 (30% chance of rain after midnight) - to me, this is perfect - should be in the mid-60's ToT time

several years ago (last year?), I had requests for bottled water instead of candy - never experienced such a warm/humid Halloween

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS  / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1


Nipping at the euro’s heels.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Another good rain event coming Thursday! Models showing around 1” for the Upstate 

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

I'll take above average in Nov. instead of Jan. Although I'm sure I'll take it then too though. Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

Nino Novembers are usually above normal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

Good timing.  Rubber bands and sloshing bath water type of stuff. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.