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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast.... 

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10 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said:

Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast.... 

Agreed.  You can already see some hints of it.  Most of the indexes we track seem to be moving favorably in the LR:  AO, NAO, EPO all appear to descend toward the end of their projections, while the PNA looks to head up.  The MJO is making its way around the horn (or depending on the model, taking a shortcut through the COD) toward the more favorable phases.  The CFS continues to look pretty good for Feb, and I'm hearing pretty good things about the latest run of the Weeklies.  Plus, there is at least some ongoing assault on the Strat PV.  While a unicorn in and of itself, it certainly doesn't hurt to have that happening concurrently.

In the meantime, the upper level flow isn't conducive to extreme torching or very cold outbreaks.  But, it looks like we keep some very cold air on our side of the globe, which is good.  If it's nearby, it's a lot easier to get transported into the area vs. having to build up in the source region.  We may even have an event during this period to track, for at least some portion of the area (western zones are favored, IMO).  Interesting winter for sure.

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1 hour ago, GreensboroWx said:

Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast.... 

 

I love the cold and snow but Im looking forward to a small break.  This has been a rather exhausting winter in terms of how much time and energy spent tracking storms...and it's only mid January.  Not that I'm complaining :snowing:

 

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

CLT is on pace for the fourth coldest january ever. 

Incredible stretch of cold. 

 

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4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

WxUSAF

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By the way, a shutdown is a great sign for a rocking end of winter. 13-14 and 95-96 become top analogs. Better prep those shovels and snowblowers.

 

What's good for Mid Atlantic, is 99% of the time, not good for us. Don't remember 13/14 that well for us, but 95/96 was done for us after mid Jan

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14 was the 7th coldest January for Charlotte in 136 years.  

Also the last good snow I got.  It started snowing about an hour before I headed home.  A 30 min drive home and this is what the roads looked like just before my neighborhood. Had it not sleeted the last few hours it would have been an amazing storm.  

So if we can repeat that February this will be one of my best winters ever here. 

6AC373D3-7E56-492F-9210-CA62B2ADE541.jpeg

4B28474F-39E3-41AC-9A57-A7315935D41D.jpeg

Poor Burrel snow hole. :(

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JB all over the hammer coming down FEB. He's making a great case. HAve to agree with him. RDU will have BN Nov,Dec,Jan in the bag. Can they score the royal flush and get Feb BN and score 1 more storm? Winter would go down as one of the all time greats for coming as close as you can wall to wall cold and above seasonal avg snowfall. Trick is first few days of Feb not going insane AN. You only have 28 days, but their avg daily highs start creeping up so it's easier to get much BN temps. 

Loving riding around and seeing white everywhere. Anyone wishing for a short thaw is crazy. Your gonna get 6+ months of all the thawing you want 90 over 70 DP style before long.

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So we all agree that we're moving into a warm period. But even during warm periods, in the middle of winter, we can get a quick hitting event if the stars are aligned. Below is the day 10 CMC. It would just take a little more push or strength from the high to turn this into a small ice event. **again not saying this 10 day event will occur but we can't go to sleep during these next two weeks.

 

pppp.png

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7 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So we all agree that we're moving into a warm period. But even during warm periods, in the middle of winter, we can get a quick hitting event if the stars are aligned. Below is the day 10 CMC. It would just take a little more push or strength from the high to turn this into a small ice event. **again not saying this 10 day event will occur but we can't go to sleep during these next two weeks.

 

pppp.png

Meh, bet the SE trend streak, I guess!? I just hear the echoing of people saying a week or so ago, that the next 15 days can't produce, looks like doo doo, deleting accounts , so on so forth, just had one of the biggest board wide events in years. So if they can be off that much about the suckiness, then the greatness people are waiting for, could bust just as hard!?

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

What's good for Mid Atlantic, is 99% of the time, not good for us. Don't remember 13/14 that well for us, but 95/96 was done for us after mid Jan

You gotta  be thinking about wrong year, Feb 96 was awesome. Several small snows, ice storm, and some mega cold. That was the last time I recorded below zero reading IMBY  (-1 in Dacusville) . Interestingly,  we also had a short livrd warm front that set all time Feb  high of 82 at GSP  same month, but that was an anomaly. 

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