• Member Statistics

    16,058
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    david121212
    Newest Member
    david121212
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, winterymix said:

Jose is functioning somewhat like a cut off low.   It is a hybrid with slight residual tropical characteristics.  The baroclinic zone

associated with the Gulf Stream provides enough latent heat to keep a system going.   Jose has several levels greater vorticity

than a weak depression or open wave.   Jose is a picture of equilibrium, slowly weakening with very weak steering currents.

As Jose weakens, it will become less stacked much like a decaying mature cut off low where the various upper levels loose register with

the SLP.

 

Jose is still warm core as of present. Will continue to weaken. 

 

3.phase1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tibet said:

Have we actually gotten reliable damage reports out of the south-east of PR? I keep seeing San Juan... but they likely didn't get the worst of the storm.

The most experienced hurricane chasers in our hemisphere were on the ground there and their reports and footage suggests CAT 3 damage from my vantage point. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the first detailed report I have seen from Dominica.

https://pressroom.oecs.org/hurricane-maria-situation-report-1

(note there is an embedded NHC link which the report must have meant to freeze at Dominica's encounter but it shows the current advisory, ignore that part ... the pictures are about what I had envisaged and one can only imagine what may have occurred in isolated communities closer to the eyewall track).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Puerto Rico really impacted the storm. Interaction signature :) 


rb-animated.gif

law of balances states that you can estimate the impact A had on B by seeing what B did to A?

Hurricanes rarely recover a pinhole eye after interaction with terrain.  If they do recover like Hugo, or Wilma, they have a much larger eye.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Subjective look at the latest goes 16 suggests, it's looking very Annu   like Isabel.

 

qXWWvkT.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

The most experienced hurricane chasers in our hemisphere were on the ground there and their reports and footage suggests CAT 3 damage from my vantage point. 

They are staying in the major hotels in the best-built part of the country. They have not ventured out very far from their base at this point. You need to stop downplaying this until we get a more widespread assessment of the damage. I hope you are correct but my gut tells me you are not. Let's wait and see before you end up like Shepard Smith.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Maria track.....are the GGEM and NAVGEM really horrible with tropical systems? I've read here countless times that we should never even bother looking at those models in terms of tropics. I only mention it because both clearly weaken Jose quicker, re-establish a ridge, and thus going to take Maria in the East Coast it appears. Should they be completely discarded or should we use them for hints irt Jose weakening so rapidly (not exact Maria track verbatim)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Re: Maria track.....are the GGEM and NAVGEM really horrible with tropical systems? I've read here countless times that we should never even bother looking at those models in terms of tropics. I only mention it because both clearly weaken Jose quicker, re-establish a ridge, and thus going to take Maria in the East Coast it appears. Should they be completely discarded or should we use them for hints irt Jose weakening so rapidly (not exact Maria track verbatim)?

Gefs are also west of 12z and closer to the coast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't see the data set from the NHC website... but looks like roughly 120-125kt FL winds in the NW quadrant of Maria per latest recon pass, southeast quad about the same at flight level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Re: Maria track.....are the GGEM and NAVGEM really horrible with tropical systems? I've read here countless times that we should never even bother looking at those models in terms of tropics. I only mention it because both clearly weaken Jose quicker, re-establish a ridge, and thus going to take Maria in the East Coast it appears. Should they be completely discarded or should we use them for hints irt Jose weakening so rapidly (not exact Maria track verbatim)?

I mean yeah they're pretty awful but the idea that Jose could dissipate more quickly isn't unreasonable. When Jose does dissipate however there isn't a lot of reason to think that the ridge will just suddenly build back in and shove Maria west. The Euro keeps Jose around for days longer than the GFS does and despite that Maria is actually closer to the coast on the Euro than the GFS before getting kicked out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, jburns said:

They are staying in the major hotels in the best-built part of the country. They have not ventured out very far from their base at this point. You need to stop downplaying this until we get a more widespread assessment of the damage. I hope you are correct but my gut tells me you are not. Let's wait and see before you end up like Shepard Smith.

Josh Morgerman is one of the most experienced hurricane observers on planet earth.  He was covering the hurricane for satellite weather provider Weather Nation.  In the footage he provided and in his narrative reports I do not see evidence of well built structures being totally destroyed as was the case in south dade county during Andrew. I stand by my assertion that Puerto Rico was hammered by the affects of a strong category 3 hurricane. I expect the Caribbean metropolis of san juan to weather this hurricane quite well and I don't see a devastating effect on tourism.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Josh Morgerman is one of the most experienced hurricane observers on planet earth.  He was covering the hurricane for satellite weather provider Weather Nation.  In the footage he provided and in his narrative reports I do not see evidence of well built structures being totally destroyed as was the case in south dade county during Andrew. I stand by my assertion that Puerto Rico was hammered by the affects of a strong category 3 hurricane. I expect the Caribbean metropolis of san juan to weather this hurricane quite well and I don't see a devastating effect on tourism.

You might be correct.  Who wouldn't want to spend a week or two in the tropics without electricity?

 You are not Josh. You saw a bit of footage and made a general assumption. It doesn't work like that.  You are like the three blind men trying to describe an elephant. One grabbed the trunk and said it was like a big snake. The second grabbed a leg and said it was like a tree. The third felt its side and said it was like a wall.  

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs are also west of 12z and closer to the coast

It's a tough slog to get Maria or any hurricane to the Northeast coast.  We are due however since there have been only three landfalling hurricanes to strike the Northeast directly in the last 57 years.  We don't have accurate records, so perhaps this is historically outside the climo norm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When measurements are taken, the hurricane's max wind is at flight level right? Maria was a cat 5 and then a cat 4 for landfall on PR, possibly a cat 3 according to some people here going by damage. What are we going by to determine what cat x damage is? Is it the damage that occurs when flights measure cat x winds or are we going by damage on the ground/actual measured sfc winds similar to the F scale? Seems like with damage on the ground is often slightly lower than max winds measured at flight level, which would make sense. So when the average cane is measured a cat 5 at flight level it will rarely produce these winds at ground level, especially inland once winds come into contact with the friction layer. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jburns said:

You might be correct.  Who wouldn't want to spend a week or two in the tropics without electricity?

 You are not Josh. You saw a bit of footage and made a general assumption. It doesn't work like that.  You are like the three blind men trying to describe an elephant. One grabbed the trunk and said it was like a big snake. The second grabbed a leg and said it was like a tree. The third felt its side and said it was like a wall.  

I have tremendous respect for Josh and all his peers like Mike Theiss.  Without their images and reportage I wouldn't be able to make such a declaration.  I'm not necessarily downplaying Maria.  I'm just saying that in terms of sheer power as far as Puerto rico is concerned it's not comparable to Andrew

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ryanjn said:

When measurements are taken, the hurricane's max wind is at flight level right? Maria was a cat 5 and then a cat 4 for landfall on PR, possibly a cat 3 according to some people here going by damage. What are we going by to determine what cat x damage is? Is it the damage that occurs when flights measure cat x winds or are we going by damage on the ground/actual measured sfc winds similar to the F scale? Seems like with damage on the ground is often slightly lower than max winds measured at flight level, which would make sense. So when the average cane is measured a cat 5 at flight level it will rarely produce these winds at ground level, especially inland once winds come into contact with the friction layer. 

Hurricanes are rated by ground level winds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

I have tremendous respect for Josh and all his peers like Mike Theiss.  Without their images and reportage I wouldn't be able to make such a declaration.  I'm not necessarily downplaying Maria.  I'm just saying that in terms of sheer power as far as Puerto rico is concerned it's not comparable to Andrew

Nobody said it was Andrew...OP asked for info on storm damage outside of SJ. There has been little to no info outside of San Juan. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

I have tremendous respect for Josh and all his peers like Mike Theiss.  Without their images and reportage I wouldn't be able to make such a declaration.  I'm not necessarily downplaying Maria.  I'm just saying that in terms of sheer power as far as Puerto rico is concerned it's not comparable to Andrew

This isn't about Josh. I respect him as well. My problem is you and what you are inferring from severely limited data and then basically using Josh as a reference.  And yes, you are downplaying Maria. I know Andrew impressed you but the type of damage you describe was in one fairly narrow swath through the homestead area.  Andrew was a small cane size wise. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

I have tremendous respect for Josh and all his peers like Mike Theiss.  Without their images and reportage I wouldn't be able to make such a declaration.  I'm not necessarily downplaying Maria.  I'm just saying that in terms of sheer power as far as Puerto rico is concerned it's not comparable to Andrew

Most category 5 storms don't have the wind damage that Andrew did right at the core. I don't know if mesovortices have ever been proven as why Andrew's damage was so severe but it had something extra going on. I think I saw a tweet that Josh put this in his top 5 storms. I don't know the context of that tweet but he's definitely been in way more than 5 category 4-5 storms.

edit to link tweet

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

It's a tough slog to get Maria or any hurricane to the Northeast coast.  We are due however since there have been only three landfalling hurricanes to strike the Northeast directly in the last 57 years.  We don't have accurate records, so perhaps this is historically outside the climo norm.

It's these types of posts are being deleted and why members are getting 5ppd or suspended.  These are not the threads to gossip or "shoot the ****".  This thread is for fact based discussion regarding the actual storm.  Take this BS to the Tropics Banter Thread or back to a local subforum.

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.