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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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The damage videos show widespread roof-off/collapsed buildings across the entire width of the island. It's hard to find examples of Atlantic storms that have caused this type of high-end wind damage upon as large a population.
The only good example I can think of at the moment that compares is Hurricane Gilbert's wind swath across the entire Jamaican landmass. Maria may end up worse, but I dare say the overall building codes in Puerto Rico were better with respect to both landfalls, though obviously still a lot of substandard construction exists in places. Ironically, a lot of the poorer areas of construction standards are in areas nearto San Juan. A lot of the structures I am seeing in SE PR look like well-built middle-to-upper class homes. Still there are pockets of immense structural damage in the aeriel footage posted earlier. And we should not forget areas on the NW side of PR with respect to wind damage. I have yet to see any aerial footage there and they were in the southwest and southern quadrant for quite a while.

 

I should note this discussion with respect to a large population over a large area of a single landmass. Obviously, this is a different discussion entirely when incorporating the combined area/landmasses of the islands in the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands in regards to Irma's impacts. And the damage in Dominica by Maria looks as bad as the damage inflicted by Irma on Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin, etc.

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15 minutes ago, 87storms said:

looks like it'll require being on the left side of that cone from the beginning otherwise it will need to take a pretty hard left turn.

I wouldn't necessarily follow that median line period. I'm just saying it's interesting. The NHC doesn't know. 

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Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she will be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose, in addition to an increase in shear.

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14 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she will be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose, in addition to an increase in shear.

Could still end up a decent rainmaker even without a direct hit

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24 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she'll be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose.

The cooler waters are only much further north from the Chesapeake & Delaware Bays on north and east.  Down along the SE coast, it is still mighty toasty (latest update I could find which was from 9/21/17) -

 

sst-midatlantic-09212017.jpg

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While recon is not finding winds that support a 110 kts cane, it's also showing a decrease in central pressure. This is probably related to an eyewall restructuring that is happening now. MW imagery now shows a fairly decent eyewall, especially in the north half and IR shows very cold cloud tops surrounding the eye. This is probably the best Maria has looked since leaving Puerto Rico behind. Another thing of note is that shear is shown as just below 20 kts again, as well.

 

20170922_2245_f18.x.91h_1deg.15LMARIA.110kts-959mb-228N-712W_94pc.thumb.jpg.e769e6e0ba4f0895ef41b1a87f3533d6.jpg

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Can this area of intensifying storms effect Maria?

 

 

 

http://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=tpa

Those are storms in association with the upper low developing over the SE and Florida. Can it affect Maria? Absolutely. However, it needs to retrograde SW to have a significant impact on how much longitude Maria can obtain with respect to the SE coast.

 

Ideally, it would be more influential if it was deeper and had a better presence in the 500 mb layer as it retrograded SW. But in any event, it is there in the 300-200 mb layer. It is the flow around that feature that has assisted in some periods of 10-20 kts of south-southwesterly shear over Maria today. But it is that feature and any rebuilding of heights NE of Maria that may draw it in closer to the N. Carolina coast. If that indeed happens.

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely...

Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z...

Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF....

 

 

Whatever you are using is really slow right now. Tropical Tidbits is up to 276. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017092218&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely...

Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z...

Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF....

 

 

Scary honestly, nobody in RDU is even talking about Maria in relation to a possible landfall. Could be a CAT 2 or 3 if it landfalls. This country can't afford another disaster. 

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9 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Scary honestly, nobody in RDU is even talking about Maria in relation to a possible landfall. Could be a CAT 2 or 3 if it landfalls. This country can't afford another disaster. 

Concerning. But it's still early. Trends were definitely significantly west today, but that's also coming from a consensus that was well ots. Really want to see more trends west on the euro/EPS before confidence can increase in regards to a potential LF. We're in that "in-between state" if you will, since we just lost a lot of confidence in the ots track... Now it's low confidence in both outcomes.

Just caution for now...

 

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6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Scary honestly, nobody in RDU is even talking about Maria in relation to a possible landfall. Could be a CAT 2 or 3 if it landfalls. This country can't afford another disaster. 

Verbatim, the closest the eye would get is @ 108 hrs and up to 132 it brushes up the east coast like a nor'easter (but as they say, the trend is your friend so it would be interesting to see if the trend continues, as we saw that with Irma and the westward shifts) -

 

gfs-108hr-ens_mslp_uv850_us_19-09222017.png

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15 minutes ago, SeanBarg said:

CORE OF MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SUCCESSFULLY SAMPLED THE EYEWALL OF MARIA...

Has this been successfully done before?

Here's a tweet about it and some info on the program -

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/22/wheels-up-noaas-p3-aircraft-is-up-in-the-air-and-on-its-way-to-fly-inside-hurricane-maria/

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/maria2017/20170922H1.html

It was used in 2014 in Eduoard - http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/10761/NOAA-releases-unmanned-aircraft-inside-Hurricane-Edouard.aspx

http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/coyote/

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