Saltydog

I can grab the census maps for income distribution if you prefer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_(U.S._region)

Relax. They're going to get more inland than the OBX. The real mess starts Sunday as we see what we're really playing with here.

I would imagine this is what gets you in trouble. North Carolina's coastal plain is flood prone, and while it seems it is well put together, it is what you would call the 'black belt'. The area between Raleigh, and the OBX is full of low income people who live in trailers, and have homes in flood prone areas as the area east of Goldsboro is filled with tributaries to the major rivers, and connect to the sounds.

-- Modifying this statement -- It's all about speed. How much room Maria has to go inland, and how the she handles the steering currents, because that system will just about meet her at the North Carolina Coast. Right now Maria is a meandering storm, with little in terms of steering. Light steering currents are beneficial to both North Carolina, Virginia, and the D.C. Baltimore metro's, because the slower she approaches the N.C. Coast the faster she's out of there. If she was able to make a beeline for the coast (which nothing in the models, sat presentation, or even my gut tells me is available) and make landfall before the system was into North Carolina, she could conceivably move out of North Carolina similar to hurricane Floyd. That exit would increase the chances of heavy rain going into the river basins, erosion on the beaches, and would bring heavy rains through southern Virginia into your area. While this is possible we won't have an idea until tomorrow. Right now the models are realizing Jose is irrelevant, and correcting. Going into Sunday we'll know exactly what both the highest impact could be, and most likely impact.

This is what is kicking Maria out:

It likely will get much closer into tomorrow afternoon. If I was a local met in N.C. I would have begun reminding my viewers of the risks involved this morning.

Tomorrow nights guidance will mostly likely be the most important. What we're all watching for is the system coming out of the plains. The GFS has thus far handled Maria quite well, so I believe the euro will follow in its nature. Per Don's post. This is the problem with only selecting a few hurricanes with previous tracks from origination (picture 1). While it is beneficial to select on tracks, you need to do a deeper dive into the data per storm. September 19, 1955 would be the closest storm in terms of pattern, synoptic environment, and quick kick (picture 2.) The most interesting factor in this pattern isn't the previous climatology, but the players involved (picture 3). Jose has now retrograded to the point where WV is having a hard time tracking him, and I suspect the ULL (small area of convection near Florida) is trying to go neutral. Jose is dying, he's on his way out, and it's obvious the high is rebuilding. However, the system coming from the plains is the kicker. You can see it advancing from Minnesota, to Western Texas. That ULL to the east of Florida, South Carolina, And Georgia is creating a weakness which is what is moving Maria closer to the N.C. Coast. The question now isn't Jose. Jose is now out of the picture for all intents and purposes, the question is: will Maria somehow finding a steering current fast enough to advance her into the N.C. Coast. While I personally think landfall around Kitty Hawk isn't out of the question, I'm not completely sold. However, ~20% on the landfalling scenario isn't accurate. The GFS has modeled Maria rather well, and reacts better/faster than the euro in these situations (12 v. 6 hours essentially). Anyone speaking of the euro until 0315 is dealing with old information. In order for me to give your 20% credit I would need the actual breakdown of hurricanes you selected, and why. If you would like to play with your own hurricane tracks please go here: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ I do enjoy everyones opinions, but please, lets use the sat imagery at the present time versus clinging to every run. I believe we can give models confidence starting at the 12z runs tomorrow. Be well,

As I read through this I wanted to share a resource so everyone has access to the same information as Don. Nothing he's doing in his analysis is special he just selects 100 nm v. the normal 65 it gives you. You can type in Long/Lat and give his analysis at will. Be well. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/