Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[qg_omega]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No surprise. Just normal temps 

Above

[CoastalWx]

It's gonna be a long winter.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS is def cold, but a little slower bringing it here

[Hazey]

A couple of snow chances too with s/w's sliding underneath the area.

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, weathafella said:

How is 2015-16 in the ratter category?

Probably a combo of near normal snow here (much worse N and W) with the extremely warm temps. It certainly felt like a ratter despite snow not being terrible locally. We just got lucky.

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably a combo of near normal snow here (much worse N and W) with the extremely warm temps. It certainly felt like a ratter despite snow not being terrible locally. We just got lucky.

First week of April was pretty wintry. 

[MJO812]

Watch for s storm mid month 

[Hoth]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably a combo of near normal snow here (much worse N and W) with the extremely warm temps. It certainly felt like a ratter despite snow not being terrible locally. We just got lucky.

Having it so closely juxtaposed with '14-'15 certainly didn't help either. A 70" season would've felt like a ratter.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Watch for s storm mid month 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Watch for s storm mid month 

Watch for a  storm on your head.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

As per Fisher

So what are our warmest autumns on record? 2011, 1931, 2015, 1946, 2007, 2001, 2016, 1953, 1999, and 1961 (in order of warmest). You’ll also notice that if this year holds on, we’ll have 4 of the Top 10 in this decade alone. If you’ve had a feeling that we’ve had a lot of warmth post-summer lately, you’re right!

If you look at the Boston snowfall totals in the winter that followed all these autumns, the numbers are pretty paltry. Some of our least snowy winters on record, in fact. For instance, 2011-12 was the year without a winter…a mere 9.3″ of snow in Boston. Didn’t even have to put a lawn chair out to save a parking spot. Just 18.4″ fell in 1931-32, and 19.4″ in 1946-47. Last year had average snowfall (47.6″) but it didn’t feel like it considering it was the 4th warmest winter on record. 2001-02 came in with only 15.1″.

An exception to the list was 2007-08, which was a hearty winter with solid snowfall. Boston received 51.2″ and interior New England did very well. We also had a very warm October in 1995, which was proceeded by our snowiest winter on record (until the 2014-15 season

Yeah, I was asking the general viewership this question a few weeks ago, how a, b, c  autumn heat --> x, y, z winter proficiency.  

In my own sloth laziness, I had hoped that eventually a better human being than I might actually have put the information together like they did above. And the above was frankly more in line with my suspicion - even though most came back (understandably) with claims that October does not mean anything ..  In their defense, the study does include autumn, which is far bigger than any one month in the autumn... so, it is what it is   Will did provide a list for Worcester that suggested even skill, tho. 

So if they are not great for our local web-denizens that root value and nostalgia in visions of cryospheric dystopia (as though it were actual utopia) ... I still do not believe even given that statistical-based portend above one can/should summarily draft their expectations accordingly. Not without qualifying the nature of why conditions may have broke warm any given year.  Can't stress this enough and it matters. 

Negative EPO's in the autumn not leading a more proficient delivery of cold air S of the 45th parallel is a lot different than a flow construct that doesn't favor cold delivery at all. The former autumn, I think that was similar to 2014 ??  check that of course...but, we all know what happened in February that year.  Even if that's a poor example, it was warm as Hades on Jesus' birthday that previous December for some ungodly reason.  I also remember commenting to Mets outside this social media that there were cold "spikes" that autumn, that seemed to last 24 to 30 hours, that just didn't time with storm systems - the season was 'playing with fire' and sure enough, the cold started timing much, much better weee. 

That whole tongue-in-cheekism is true though.  That's why I don't give a ratz azz that we're warmer than normal to date, so long as the the EPO was negative this long... Not only that, the CPC indices are now showing early signs of changing modes, too.  If the AO really falls precipitously like that and the EPO does in fact stay negative, that really does change the ball-game entirely.  A -EPO means that a -AO (or falling one) has very little chance of dumping the cold load off into Eurasia -

[WxBlue]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What clowns. That's a cold **** next weekend. I don't see anything wrong in the extended. 

Me either. I really don't get people complaining about how November will torch and how winter is doomed.

If anything, models are consistent in having several systems that could bring minor snow or flurries to NNE outside peaks.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I was asking the general viewership this question a few weeks ago, how a, b, c  autumn heat --> x, y, z winter proficiency.  

In my own sloth laziness, I had hoped that eventually a better human being than I might actually have put the information together like they did above. And the above was frankly more in line with my suspicion - even though most came back (understandably) with claims that October does not mean anything ..  In their defense, the study does include autumn, which is far bigger than any one month in the autumn... so, it is what it is   Will did provide a list for Worcester that suggested even skill, tho. 

So if they are not great for our local web-denizens that root value and nostalgia in visions of cryospheric dystopia (as though it were actual utopia) ... I still do not believe even given that statistical-based portend above one can/should summarily draft their expectations accordingly. Not without qualifying the nature of why conditions may have broke warm any given year.  Can't stress this enough and it matters. 

Negative EPO's in the autumn not leading a more proficient delivery of cold air S of the 45th parallel is a lot different than a flow construct that doesn't favor cold delivery at all. The former autumn, I think that was similar to 2014 ??  check that of course...but, we all know what happened in February that year.  Even if that's a poor example, it was warm as Hades on Jesus' birthday that previous December for some ungodly reason.  I also remember commenting to Mets outside this social media that there were cold "spikes" that autumn, that seemed to last 24 to 30 hours, that just didn't time with storm systems - the season was 'playing with fire' and sure enough, the cold started timing much, much better weee. 

That whole tongue-in-cheekism is true though.  That's why I don't give a ratz azz that we're warmer than normal to date, so long as the the EPO was negative this long... Not only that, the CPC indices are now showing early signs of changing modes, too.  If the AO really falls precipitously like that and the EPO does in fact stay negative, that really does change the ball-game entirely.  A -EPO means that a -AO (or falling one) has very little chance of dumping the cold load off into Eurasia -

Yeah you asked me about warmest octobers on record and they showed no skillful prediction of winter snowfall. Warmest autumns on record do show some skill but still caution is warranted....which should always be the case when we take a sample size of some small number such as "10 warmest autumns". 

[Typhoon Tip]

well ...anywho, that was all more winter-scope thought processing...

As to the models and dailies:

Seems we shouldn't give up entirely on the Friday ordeal. That's sort of come back into the guidance suite regardless of creed. It's probably not a snow... okay. However, it's real close actually. That strikes me (as is now in the various depictions) as one of these deals were radar looks like snow even though it may be patchy and light ... through mid 40s type BL. Maybe cat's paws at elevation. 

After that, as most are likely aware there is a signal in the D8 range that has presentation in the ensembles and operational runs alike. Timing and details notwithstanding..This one (I feel) has a better shot at bringing some wet snow to the region. There is even one after that in the deep la-la range (as though D8 were not? haha) .. but, given to the hints of changes in the geopotenial medium overall, I suspect we are heading into some sort of patter change mid-month that is both not really well presented in the operational versions, but also making extended fantasy even more chancy - if that's possible. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably a combo of near normal snow here (much worse N and W) with the extremely warm temps. It certainly felt like a ratter despite snow not being terrible locally. We just got lucky.

I did feel worse.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Me either. I really don't get people complaining about how November will torch and how winter is doomed.

If anything, models are consistent in having several systems that could bring minor snow or flurries to NNE outside peaks.

I said the same thing a day or two ago.

November looks fine.......that is why a really warm day or two early on doesn't bother me.

[LoveSN+]

Anyone buying what the 12z NAM is selling on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning?

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Anyone buying what the 12z NAM is selling on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning?

The NAM has a tendency to "lag" precipitation west of flat waves ...almost ANA like (that's a kind of thing ...just Google it)

Having said that ...it gets a little goose in confidence by the fact that it was there in the last three cycles - more or less... This is the more robust version I have seen.  It's prooobably over done given to the above. 

Contrasting, the NAM is a horrible tool for assessing synoptic evolution beyond ... oh 30 hours, so unless there is some pretty clear support from the other modeling sources. heh

[ma blizzard]

10 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Anyone buying what the 12z NAM is selling on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning?

probably not but we can hope right? Thats like 3"-5" imby  

[weathafella]

I looked at the euro and noticed it advertising a cold snap.  I then looked at the ensemble support.  I then looked at the 6Z GFS and GEFS and they trended colder.    I then looked at the posts in this thread and thought what the blue fuk?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I looked at the euro and noticed it advertising a cold snap.  I then looked at the ensemble support.  I then looked at the GFS and GEFS and it trended colder.    I then looked at the posts in this thread and thought what the blue fuk?

Lol DIT is still hungover

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol DIT is still hungover

Needs to be sent back up into the treehouse.

[LoveSN+]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The NAM has a tendency to "lag" precipitation west of flat waves ...almost ANA like (that's a kind of thing ...just Google it)

Having said that ...it gets a little goose in confidence by the fact that it was there in the last three cycles - more or less... This is the more robust version I have seen.  It's prooobably over done given to the above. 

Contrasting, the NAM is a horrible tool for assessing synoptic evolution beyond ... oh 30 hours, so unless there is some pretty clear support from the other modeling sources. heh

Completely understood. It's interesting though, as you noted, that it's trended towards a more phased solution. 

[OSUmetstud]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you asked me about warmest octobers on record and they showed no skillful prediction of winter snowfall. Warmest autumns on record do show some skill but still caution is warranted....which should always be the case when we take a sample size of some small number such as "10 warmest autumns". 

There appears to be some relationship between warm Novembers in the northeast and positive naos and positive epos for January.  But October doesn't look statically significant in either direction.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There appears to be some relationship between warm Novembers in the northeast and positive naos and positive epos for January.  But October doesn't look statically significant in either direction.  

 

Right - and in some respects it makes sound statistical reasoning in that ...well, October and November together is a bigger sample size than just one month.  I mean to point out the obvious ... 10 days of idiosyncratic warmth can taint a month, but a mere 10 days really is noise at that sort of time scale when compared to three. Granted, this last October appeared more systemically anchored ...we didn't have the -EPO long enough in that time span to even really register it's influence on the temperature distributions across the continent and probably still haven't just yet.  I just can't condone any significant indication here once that EPO kicked in... For lack of better words, the warmth "got lucky" because the idiosyncrasy this time was that wave spacing - or appears to be so.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Completely understood. It's interesting though, as you noted, that it's trended towards a more phased solution. 

well .. let's be careful. "phasing" has a conceptual meaning in the parlance of synoptic met and I (personally) didn't say that - I said, 'more robust' ... It's probably just NAM noise.  But again, the last several cycles have had a flat kink in the baroclinic axis post the fropa later tomorrow, with some ANA like lop over activity ... so I guess based on it's own consistency -

I remember back in the mid 2000's ...that was the hay-day for NAM coup d'etats.  The model sucked then, too?  However, every so once in a blue moon, you could count on it absolutely nailing down an event right down to the micro-physics of the thing ...where the global models may not have had a clue.  I haven't seen the NAM pull one of those off in recent memory though. The last truly epic one was either the Dec 2005 fold event and 4 hour blizzard for he western Burbs of Boston, or ...perhaps early in January that year with that big storm; which the NAM captured at 84 hours and didn't deviate once and won.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The only reason why there would be some snow for the interior mid week is because the resident weenie shouted, just a few days ago, it will be a rainy week for ALL. 

[weathafella]

All guidance has a pretty profound pattern change beginning this week.  We move from warm and dry to active with some early season wintry precipitation chances particularly for interior areas.   Not far from normal temperatures with some days well below vs well above for the past several weeks.

[SnowGoose69]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well .. let's be careful. "phasing" has a conceptual meaning in the parlance of synoptic met and I (personally) didn't say that - I said, 'more robust' ... It's probably just NAM noise.  But again, the last several cycles have had a flat kink in the baroclinic axis post the fropa later tomorrow, with some ANA like lop over activity ... so I guess based on it's own consistency -

I remember back in the mid 2000's ...that was the hay-day for NAM coup d'etats.  The model sucked then, too?  However, every so once in a blue moon, you could count on it absolutely nailing down an event right down to the micro-physics of the thing ...where the global models may not have had a clue.  I haven't seen the NAM pull one of those off in recent memory though. The last truly epic one was either the Dec 2005 fold event and 4 hour blizzard for he western Burbs of Boston, or ...perhaps early in January that year with that big storm; which the NAM captured at 84 hours and didn't deviate once and won.

The NAM did nail a few events last winter surprisingly.  It felt like about 5-6 years at least since it had done that 

[ORH_wxman]

That system for early next week (Nov 13-14ish) is gaining a little more interest in the synoptic look. It's dependent on that arctic shot preceding it actually occurring which appears to be gaining some support too. I agree with Tip talking about how the model guidance may be struggling a bit with the whole regime of this -EPO and short wave length issue...the hemispheric pattern "wants" to be colder for us with the EPO look but idiosyncrasies have so far prevented it...however, perhaps a few chickens are coming home to roost next weekend and early next week. We will see...at least it is something that warrants checking in on each model cycle.