Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Do you have those years?  The only Boston ratters going back to 2000 are 2001-02, 2006-07, 2011-12.

As per Fisher

So what are our warmest autumns on record? 2011, 1931, 2015, 1946, 2007, 2001, 2016, 1953, 1999, and 1961 (in order of warmest). You’ll also notice that if this year holds on, we’ll have 4 of the Top 10 in this decade alone. If you’ve had a feeling that we’ve had a lot of warmth post-summer lately, you’re right!

If you look at the Boston snowfall totals in the winter that followed all these autumns, the numbers are pretty paltry. Some of our least snowy winters on record, in fact. For instance, 2011-12 was the year without a winter…a mere 9.3″ of snow in Boston. Didn’t even have to put a lawn chair out to save a parking spot. Just 18.4″ fell in 1931-32, and 19.4″ in 1946-47. Last year had average snowfall (47.6″) but it didn’t feel like it considering it was the 4th warmest winter on record. 2001-02 came in with only 15.1″.

An exception to the list was 2007-08, which was a hearty winter with solid snowfall. Boston received 51.2″ and interior New England did very well. We also had a very warm October in 1995, which was proceeded by our snowiest winter on record (until the 2014-15 season

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

What do you think about the index to which Chuck first alluded back in September in his -NAO thread in the main forum?  I understand that, for better or worse, he's been all over the place with his thoughts lately, but having been a member on these forums for a decade and a half, I've always known him to be a good contributor to our discussions.  Should we place any stock (his?) index?  

Seems like this is better rephrased as "we need November to feature a subdued SE ridge and a complete absence of the AK death vortex, regardless of local temp departures," no?

Maybe this leads to chilly Novie?

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

As per Fisher

So what are our warmest autumns on record? 2011, 1931, 2015, 1946, 2007, 2001, 2016, 1953, 1999, and 1961 (in order of warmest). You’ll also notice that if this year holds on, we’ll have 4 of the Top 10 in this decade alone. If you’ve had a feeling that we’ve had a lot of warmth post-summer lately, you’re right!

If you look at the Boston snowfall totals in the winter that followed all these autumns, the numbers are pretty paltry. Some of our least snowy winters on record, in fact. For instance, 2011-12 was the year without a winter…a mere 9.3″ of snow in Boston. Didn’t even have to put a lawn chair out to save a parking spot. Just 18.4″ fell in 1931-32, and 19.4″ in 1946-47. Last year had average snowfall (47.6″) but it didn’t feel like it considering it was the 4th warmest winter on record. 2001-02 came in with only 15.1″.

An exception to the list was 2007-08, which was a hearty winter with solid snowfall. Boston received 51.2″ and interior New England did very well. We also had a very warm October in 1995, which was proceeded by our snowiest winter on record (until the 2014-15 season

Thanks for posting this Dave!  We must be in the top 10 at least for the September and October couplet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks for posting this Dave!  We must be in the top 10 at least for the September and October couplet.

I think #4 for Boston.  I know October was #2    I will see if I can find it

I hope you are feeling better and get some good news

[HoarfrostHubb]

Also from Fisher

”Perhaps a few people have noticed, but we're having the warmest fall on record. Warmest Oct on record. Warm start to Nov.  Sad! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯”

Although I think Boston was second for October. 1944 was warmer

[LurkerBoy]

24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Also from Fisher

”Perhaps a few people have noticed, but we're having the warmest fall on record. Warmest Oct on record. Warm start to Nov.  Sad! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯”

Although I think Boston was second for October. 1944 was warmer

It’s the warmest fall ever??

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

It’s the warmest fall ever??

I am assuming he is referring to BOS...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

52 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

As per Fisher

So what are our warmest autumns on record? 2011, 1931, 2015, 1946, 2007, 2001, 2016, 1953, 1999, and 1961 (in order of warmest). You’ll also notice that if this year holds on, we’ll have 4 of the Top 10 in this decade alone. If you’ve had a feeling that we’ve had a lot of warmth post-summer lately, you’re right!

If you look at the Boston snowfall totals in the winter that followed all these autumns, the numbers are pretty paltry. Some of our least snowy winters on record, in fact. For instance, 2011-12 was the year without a winter…a mere 9.3″ of snow in Boston. Didn’t even have to put a lawn chair out to save a parking spot. Just 18.4″ fell in 1931-32, and 19.4″ in 1946-47. Last year had average snowfall (47.6″) but it didn’t feel like it considering it was the 4th warmest winter on record. 2001-02 came in with only 15.1″.

An exception to the list was 2007-08, which was a hearty winter with solid snowfall. Boston received 51.2″ and interior New England did very well. We also had a very warm October in 1995, which was proceeded by our snowiest winter on record (until the 2014-15 season

Pretty strong correlation there. Tough to ignore that. We need November to be pretty chilly to dip out of the top 10 id assume.

 

That is a pretty telling number though 9 out of10 blew 

[CoastalWx]

I don't have time to fire up the composites, but my guess is that many of those years had the dreaded AK death-tex. Last year was more like death by SE ridging, but we had good snow despite the torch. We have nothing like the AK death-tex going forward. If the Novie pattern continued, I don't think I would have a bad feeling for December. Clearly we cannot determine this yet, but I would like to see how the patterns were at 500mb for those years. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Meh, all you need to do is look back to 2015.  Next to nothing as we got towards the last week of January, than all hell broke loose and we ended up with ~120".

For sure.... around here it’s almost impossible to predict snowfall with real accuracy.

A blowtorch winter with 2 good timed events can get us right up to average 

[CoastalWx]

How is last year, 2007, and 1961 a ratter? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

How is last year, 2007, and 1961 a ratter? 

2015/16 I think he means

2006/07

1960/61

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2015/16 I think he means

2006/07

1960/61

 

No I think he meant met autumns of those years. He did reference 07-08 snowfall which agrees with his autumn 2007 idea. That fall was very warm. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s never that easy of a correlation. Just as a cool and wet fall doesn’t reveal much for an ensuing winter. How it’s cold and wet would tell more. 

If Oct/Nov was cold and wet, peeps would be nervous that it’s being wasted. Can’t win. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No I think he meant met autumns of those years. He did reference 07-08 snowfall which agrees with his autumn 2007 idea. That fall was very warm. 

Yeah...I don’t know.  I don’t have all of the yearly Boston numbers.  

I don’t know that he means all of them are ratters. But ratters, as well as just generally below avg years are in there, other than that one?

maybe?

just guessing here.  That info was from his Oct 10 article.  I know Ginx was on his case about it

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s never that easy of a correlation. Just as a cool and wet fall doesn’t reveal much for an ensuing winter. How it’s cold and wet would tell more. 

If Oct/Nov was cold and wet, peeps would be nervous that it’s being wasted. Can’t win. 

The best was Dave Epstein and his idea of a dry September and winter. That was in 2014.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s never that easy of a correlation. Just as a cool and wet fall doesn’t reveal much for an ensuing winter. How it’s cold and wet would tell more. 

If Oct/Nov was cold and wet, peeps would be nervous that it’s being wasted. Can’t win. 

Nope.  Not a guaranteed correlation.  

You are right (as has been mentioned by you and others many times) it is the pattern that determines what is causing the warmth that needs to be looked at, not the warmth itself

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...I don’t know.  I don’t have all of the yearly Boston numbers.  

I don’t know that he means all of them are ratters. But ratters, as well as just generally below avg years are in there, other than that one?

maybe?

just guessing here.  That info was from his Oct 10 article.  I know Ginx was on his case about it

I think it's a good idea to break down the H5 patterns of those years. I know last year and 07-08 off the top of my head...but my guess is that the disgusting years had the terrible black hole in AK. It's going to be a warm autumn no matter what. You aren't beating those departures from Sept and especially Oct. But if we turn the corner in Novie and keep it heading into December, it nullifies that correlation. That's what I am looking for.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The best was Dave Epstein and his idea of a dry September and winter. That was in 2014.

Was that the birth of “dry begets dry?”

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Was that the birth of “dry begets dry?”

 

Probably. That was when the drought talk really heated up by you know who.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fisher does post the H5 for the Dec to Jan periods following warmest autumns in his writeup

 

[CoastalWx]

This is what you do not want. 

 

[CoastalWx]

This is what can work. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Clearly in the "can work" image there isn't a huge margin of error..esp in SNE. You want to hope for better poleward ridging or some sort of -NAO.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The question is, can we avoid being in the 90% H5 if November is ****

[Ginx snewx]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't have time to fire up the composites, but my guess is that many of those years had the dreaded AK death-tex. Last year was more like death by SE ridging, but we had good snow despite the torch. We have nothing like the AK death-tex going forward. If the Novie pattern continued, I don't think I would have a bad feeling for December. Clearly we cannot determine this yet, but I would like to see how the patterns were at 500mb for those years. 

We are only talking a degree or 2 separating 2010 2000 2002 1995 falls too. What is more interesting is the majority of cold falls were meh winters.  Happy mediums are best and warm Sept Oct with cold second half of Nov are mostly a win

[LurkerBoy]

NEw GFS still no cool down?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The best was Dave Epstein and his idea of a dry September and winter. That was in 2014.

Canidate for “the biggest loser”.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Canidate for “the biggest loser”.

I am making up my own "box" to correlate winters. It will be called The Pacific Defecation Oscillation. A +PDO consists of below normal heights encompassing the Bering Sea through the waters west of British Columbia. That will correlate to a sh*tty winter here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nope.  Not a guaranteed correlation.  

You are right (as has been mentioned by you and others many times) it is the pattern that determines what is causing the warmth that needs to be looked at, not the warmth itself

Both “sides” can turn out right this year though. It could be a torch (ratters win) and a rogue couple weeks gives most of us above snowfall (snow weenies win). lol.

We can say that extreme weather has increased in GW, the flip from torch to deep winter, and vis versa, can happen moreso then typical climate data suggests. We can crunch all the numbers and look at all the factors include all the texhnology, but it’s still an unperfect scientific guess to start.....then ice the cake with GW.