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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno, that looks basically like coin flipping to me by week 4...

Did you look at 5h? Didn't seem radically wrong to me. Not like it had upper air features flipped. Of course it's not going to be right but generally seems to have the right idea. I am not using it to base my ideas out as I posted my ideas before it came out. Look forward to a different kind of late Nov Dec than we have been having. Feeling moderately confident

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

haha .. .not to be snarky but ... those are all coin flips beyond week 1 - 

yeah, honestly i've never had any faith in those products and feel proven justly for that skepticism too often to change my approach to using them - so I don't.  not that what i do matters, of course..  

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha .. .not to be snarky but ... those are all coin flips beyond week 1 - 

yeah, honestly i've never had any faith in those products and feel proven justly for that skepticism too often to change my approach to using them - so I don't.  not that what i do matters, of course..  

Tip’s life matters.

I don’t take cfs or weeklies seriously. As my little scientific brain has expanded its knowledge, I stick to ens with reagrds to the long range... then pick and chose which one supports cold and snow, obviously. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tip’s life matters.

I don’t take cfs or weeklies seriously. As my little scientific brain has expanded its knowledge, I stick to ens with reagrds to the long range... then pick and chose which one supports cold and snow, obviously. 

Ha ha ha!   ...of course, duhh -

Yeah no ...i'm sure at some point in time those sort of "holistic" approaches to modeling may have some benefit that "looks" better than random - and to be fair, I am not privy to the actual report card level skill of them. They could be better than the 'sh!t against the wall' guesswork I know I saw back whence.  It's just that I've been in and out of social media weather-writing hobby for the better part of a decade at this point, and through the vicissitudes of wind vagaries over the years, the bluster I've heard re the Weeklies has rarely been enough to sail the shores of accuracy as far as I can recall. 

But, I could be wrong with all those long words and clear talent to string sentences that no one can read :axe:    ...just kidding.  simply put, unless someone can prove it using hard numbers, I'm just not sure they are altogether very useful beyond the fun of speculation - which has it's place, sure.. 

I love doing that. I admit to a guilty pleasure of translating Day 9 Euro bombs into choking whiteout snow, finning it's way around tree trunks and stranded motorists..  One just has to keep the purpose of either course separate. 

Funny to be discussing that as I sit her bathed in this early June day ... 

The thing is, by the time technology and discovery's positive feed-back into advancing technology et al finally arrives Meteorological predictive skill to the point where a tool like a 4 week lead can be truly useful, ...we'll probably already be "suffering" the dreaded (and it's coming if Humanity doesn't annihilate its self first) 'atmospheric modulation simulator' - ...a.k.a. AMS ...and there won't be any need for it in the first place. 

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha ha!   ...of course, duhh -

Yeah no ...i'm sure at some point in time those sort of "holistic" approaches to modeling may have some benefit that "looks" better than random - and to be fair, I am not privy to the actual report card level skill of them. They could be better than the 'sh!t against the wall' guesswork I know I saw back whence.  It's just that I've been in and out of social media weather-writing hobby for the better part of a decade at this point, and through the vicissitudes of wind vagaries over the years, the bluster I've heard re the Weeklies has rarely been enough to sail the shores of accuracy as far as I can recall. 

But, I could be wrong with all those long words and clear talent to string sentences that no one can read :axe:    ...just kidding.  simply put, unless someone can prove it using hard numbers, I'm just not sure they are altogether very useful beyond the fun of speculation - which has it's place, sure.. 

I love doing that. I admit to a guilty pleasure of translating Day 9 Euro bombs into choking whiteout snow, finning it's way around tree trunks and stranded motorists..  One just has to keep the purpose of either course separate. 

Funny to be discussing that as I sit her bathed in this early June day ... 

The thing is, by the time technology and discovery's positive feed-back into advancing technology et al finally arrives Meteorological predictive skill to the point where a tool like a 4 week lead can be truly useful, ...we'll probably already be "suffering" the dreaded (and it's coming if Humanity doesn't annihilate its self first) 'atmospheric modulation simulator' - ...a.k.a. AMS ...and there won't be any need for it in the first place. 

Wasss dat? (AMS)?

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

-20C H85 temps here have to be pushing the record for the date.

It is kind of a short lived cold shot so I won't be surprised as the models moderate those temperatures  over the next few days. 

Either way it will be nice to get more seasonable cold and fire up the woodstove for the first time this season.

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