Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Ahh yes... woke up to a nice, cold morning to see a beautiful modeled winter storm over my location on the GFS. Probably one of those once-a-year blockbusters that doesn't pan out. Let me check few things...

-checked the date and the location-

Toto, we're not in North Carolina on a typical January day anymore. I know it's at least 8 days away, but this is really exciting for me considering models rarely show something over a foot in the South. Unfortunately, 500 mb pattern is still rather fluid run-to-run over last couple days. Likely the big snow will go away for 12z GFS, but at least the cold appears to be consistent so it wouldn't be wise to dismiss wintry threat entirely for this period. It's still fun to look at and get excited for the upcoming winter season.

Haha...yeah you'll get your share of modeled fantasy storms here in New England...you'll probably get sick of them by January. Hopefully we get some good hits though early this winter. November is kind of tough...we will frequently get our first accumulating snow in November, but usually its something ugly like 1-3"...I typically look at Thanksgiving as more of a benchmark when real storms become more realistic (talking outside of the NNE mountains and N Maine). That said, we did get the epic Octobomb in 2011 and then the very next year we got a 6-8" event on November 6-7...so we've done warning events early a couple times in recent years.

 

But that aside, there is always something special about the first accumulating snow...even if its just a coating. I always get giddy looking at the flakes fall for the first time in the season.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

But that aside, there is always something special about the first accumulating snow...even if its just a coating. I always get giddy looking at the flakes fall for the first time in the season.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Frigid EPO-driven winters are my favorite.  How durable is that -EPO though?  I recall the 2014-15 episode being driven by that magic warm pool in the NPAC, which seems to Ben lacking this year (so far at least).

    let's not get ahead...  "I" (at least) am not really concerned with the winter in this thread or any of the facets leading to a D 8 feature for monitoring. 

But, so long as you're asking... The "durability" (interesting word choice) as it relates to the longer terms variability/tendencies therein, of that particular mass-field index? 

-- The NAO is quite stochastic, showing intra-weekly (at times) variations that bring the index above and below 0 standard deviations, which makes it somewhat problematic for just about any time interval..  particularly the longer that time range is considered. For example, seasonally the NAO index almost cannot be predicated with much skill. There is, however, a very broad perspective that is based upon multi-decade behavior, where given scopes on the order of a centuries, a 20 to 30 year periodicity emerges that suggests that the NAO will be in a negative(positive) phase bias.  Right now we are (based on that alone) supposed to be in a negative phase; but like all longer termed averages...they are a serrated affair of ups and down and noisy separations from neutrality...which is to say, you can (and will) have positive winters during negative graphical arguments and vice versa.  ... 

-- I took you down that course work to use that as a buffer for the EPO, in that the EPO is not nearly as stochastic as the NAO.  There are a lot of reasons why the NAO experiences greater variability, but the main reason why the EPO tends to move slower when in modality is because of the ginormous controlling presence of the Pacific ocean leading it's mass-field in the traditional/base-line circulation rules of the planet.  Namely, the fact that weather moves from west to east at mid latitudes of the northern Hemisphere... such that having a big proxy like the oceanic expanse of the Pacific means that the physical factors causing the EPO to rise tend to be anchored in longer termed/great momentum circumstances in both the atmosphere and atmospheric-oceanic coupled relationship. 

That's a lot of long words ... but, bigger objects take longer to motivate - that's all.. The Pacific basin's influence on the atmosphere is truly vast ...planetary in scope and scale really. And, that is both fluid mechanical, and thermodynamically ... (and the two are 2ndarily also subjective of one-another)... So, the EPO is maintained by much of that, so it stands to reason the EPO is more robust than the NAO.  

But that doesn't mean a 10 day stint of -EPO in late October through early November will parlay into a whole winter, either. Just that in terms of longer 'durability' when you get -EPOs it should hypothetically express in that phase state for a longer period of time. 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think SSTs being a driver is oversold.  There's a correlation.  But there would warmer than normal SSTs with a ridge overhead all winter in the Bering and the Gulf of Alaska anyway.  

Violently agree. It was shown that the ridging in that region from 2013-2014 into later 2015 was likely aided by the continuous tropical forcing in the WPAC. Those cold NPAC waters that are a few degrees above normal simply are not going to force a hemispheric rosby wave pattern change.  People use the warm pool way too much, it's a product of the environment, not the other way around. JMHO. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

“What about those outside of EMA” ?

Berg, now that you're moving East quite a bit(not being on the Western Fringe boarder anymore), you should get in on more of the goods in a modeled set-up such as what the 6z shows lol.  

 

Fun just seeing that depiction on the First day of November...and we know it'll be gone on the next run of the GFS...but it's interesting nonetheless.  Happy that September and October are behind us now...moving on towards winter is the important part....

[WxBlue]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Haha...yeah you'll get your share of modeled fantasy storms here in New England...you'll probably get sick of them by January. Hopefully we get some good hits though early this winter. November is kind of tough...we will frequently get our first accumulating snow in November, but usually its something ugly like 1-3"...I typically look at Thanksgiving as more of a benchmark when real storms become more realistic (talking outside of the NNE mountains and N Maine). That said, we did get the epic Octobomb in 2011 and then the very next year we got a 6-8" event on November 6-7...so we've done warning events early a couple times in recent years.

 

But that aside, there is always something special about the first accumulating snow...even if its just a coating. I always get giddy looking at the flakes fall for the first time in the season.

Ugly 3" is 50% of RDU's annual snow average haha. Embarrassing. I studied the climatology of New England a bit few months back and decided to set December 1st as when to start expecting bigger storms so I'm not too far from your benchmark. To me, anything nice before January was a bonus back in NC and I think that might continue here as far as my expectations goes. 

I wouldn't complain if we get a nice coating at the most from this upcoming pattern. Like you said, there's something magical about watching the flakes fall through the night sky for the first time of the season

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

Ugly 3" is 50% of RDU's annual snow average haha. Embarrassing. I studied the climatology of New England a bit few months back and decided to set December 1st as when to start expecting bigger storms so I'm not too far from your benchmark. To me, anything nice before January was a bonus back in NC and I think that might continue here as far as my expectations goes. 

I wouldn't complain if we get a nice coating at the most from this upcoming pattern. Like you said, there's something magical about watching the flakes fall through the night sky for the first time of the season

Yeah huge difference in average Nov snow and avg Dec snow...you're typically prob gonna average somewhere in the 3" range for November there but it will jump to around 15" in December.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Berg, now that you're moving East quite a bit(not being on the Western Fringe boarder anymore), you should get in on more of the goods in a modeled set-up such as what the 6z shows lol.  

 

Fun just seeing that depiction on the First day of November...and we know it'll be gone on the next run of the GFS...but it's interesting nonetheless.  Happy that September and October are behind us now...moving on towards winter is the important part....

ha, 20 miles east as wierd as it sounds makes a big difference sometimes with Miller Bs. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

ha, 20 miles east as wierd as it sounds makes a big difference sometimes with Miller Bs. 

To the east my brother...to the east. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

ha, 20 miles east as wierd as it sounds makes a big difference sometimes with Miller Bs. 

You aint kidding...and I'm 20 miles east of Southbury.  Watch, this year they'll all be western tuck deals lol...

[OSUmetstud]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Violently agree. It was shown that the ridging in that region from 2013-2014 into later 2015 was likely aided by the continuous tropical forcing in the WPAC. Those cold NPAC waters that are a few degrees above normal simply are not going to force a hemispheric rosby wave pattern change.  People use the warm pool way too much, it's a product of the environment, not the other way around. JMHO. 

Right.  

Weirdly enough. I was just checking October Ninas compared to this season and the closest match was the cold-neutral October 2013.  And rolling it forward into mid November.  It seemed like a good portion of Nina falls had AK troughing.  

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You aint kidding...and I'm 20 miles east of Southbury.  Watch, this year they'll all be western tuck deals lol...

Probably, I am the jinx. I left for NC Jan 25 2013 and one week later, boom. Come back to CT Oct 2013 and missed every single big system to my east, south, and west.  Don’t get me wrong I’ve had quite the number 10-14” but nowadays, thats a clipper snowfall amount. Something has to give eventually for a 2 footer. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Right.  

Weirdly enough. I was just checking October Ninas compared to this season and the closest match was the cold-neutral October 2013.  And rolling it forward into mid November.  It seemed like a good portion of Nina falls had AK troughing.  

 

 

AK troughing or ridging?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To the east my brother...to the east. 

Maybe a SWFE type December.   Northwest is best.

[OSUmetstud]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

AK troughing or ridging?

Troughing in the fall.  This one hasn't.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe a SWFE type December.   Northwest is best.

You will reach 80” this snow season. He will reach for the bottle. 

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You will reach 80” this snow season. He will reach for the bottle. 

Scooter's area does fine in most SWFEs...the latitude matters more than longitude...and often, if anything, being east can help out in a SWFE with those highs draining all the cold air from potato country right down the coastal plain of Maine into eastern NH/MA. It's how we always make fun of Kevin for being "dumbfounded" when he is getting scalped and PVD over to PYM is getting ripped with +SN.

 

It's often those early season coastals where Scooter gets porked a lot...like Oct 2011, Nov 6-7, 2012 or Dec 29, 2012.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter's area does fine in most SWFEs...the latitude matters more than longitude...and often, if anything, being east can help out in a SWFE with those highs draining all the cold air from potato country right down the coastal plain of Maine into eastern NH/MA. It's how we always make fun of Kevin for being "dumbfounded" when he is getting scalped and PVD over to PYM is getting ripped with +SN.

 

It's often those early season coastals where Scooter gets porked a lot...like Oct 2011, Nov 6-7, 2012 or Dec 29, 2012.

Yeah in all seriousness, it's not a bad spot for SWFE.  North side of town FTW. If Scooter HP is present..could even have a little CJ action with OES.

Those dates you mentioned are like daggers in my heart.     

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter's area does fine in most SWFEs...the latitude matters more than longitude...and often, if anything, being east can help out in a SWFE with those highs draining all the cold air from potato country right down the coastal plain of Maine into eastern NH/MA. It's how we always make fun of Kevin for being "dumbfounded" when he is getting scalped and PVD over to PYM is getting ripped with +SN.

 

It's often those early season coastals where Scooter gets porked a lot...like Oct 2011, Nov 6-7, 2012 or Dec 29, 2012.

SWFE's are generally more of a guarantee for warning snows here than coastal's.  WNE is due for a few coastal huggers, it's been a while.

 Track a bombing low over James head and MPM and I are happy.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah in all seriousness, it's not a bad spot for SWFE.  North side of town FTW. If Scooter HP is present..could even have a little CJ action with OES.

Those dates you mentioned are like daggers in my heart.     

S. Weymouth FTL

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

SWFE's are generally more of a guarantee for warning snows here than coastal's.  WNE is due for a few coastal huggers, it's been a while.

 Track a bombing low over James head and MPM and I are happy.

I see how it is.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

S. Weymouth FTL

Glad we don't live there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter's area does fine in most SWFEs...the latitude matters more than longitude...and often, if anything, being east can help out in a SWFE with those highs draining all the cold air from potato country right down the coastal plain of Maine into eastern NH/MA. It's how we always make fun of Kevin for being "dumbfounded" when he is getting scalped and PVD over to PYM is getting ripped with +SN.

 

It's often those early season coastals where Scooter gets porked a lot...like Oct 2011, Nov 6-7, 2012 or Dec 29, 2012.

Yea, he does well with swfe. And If the HP is west enough and wedged well, it turns into a coastal and he wins out anyway lol. 

I teased though because I have visions of CC raining a lot and him fighting off the R/S line with a samurai sword. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

SWFE's are generally more of a guarantee for warning snows here than coastal's.  WNE is due for a few coastal huggers, it's been a while.

 Track a bombing low over James head and MPM and I are happy.

Well you got one on March 14th this past winter...maybe there will be a couple more this year. Though I typically would prefer to see neutral or El Nino to get a lot of coastals...but who knows, '95-'96 and '00-'01 had a lot of coastals as weak La Ninas.

[WinterWolf]

Wow is it chilly out there today....right on cue on November 1st it looks and feels like November...cold and grey!!  45 degrees and damp...goes through you.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow is it chilly out there today....right on cue on November 1st it looks and feels like November...cold and grey!!  45 degrees and damp...goes through you.

Stay safe

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, he does well with swfe. And If the HP is west enough and wedged well, it turns into a coastal and he wins out anyway lol. 

I teased though because I have visions of CC raining a lot and him fighting off the R/S line with a samurai sword. 

That can happen. Gosh, 12/26/10 was a classic one. It was rain close to the SE. The funny thing is that you have a great shot at beating me in early season events. The ocean will kill me unless it's frigid aloft. You guys think I do so well thanks to recent bias, but there is heartache for sure. Trust me. I am due to pay the piper.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

SWFE's are generally more of a guarantee for warning snows here than coastal's.  WNE is due for a few coastal huggers, it's been a while.

 Track a bombing low over James head and MPM and I are happy.

We just had a big hugger last March.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just had a big hugger last March.

I think he means where I rain and cry for mama while the rest of the Pony-Os are dancing around in costumes from Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That can happen. Gosh, 12/26/10 was a classic one. It was rain close to the SE. The funny thing is that you have a great shot at beating me in early season events. The ocean will kill me unless it's frigid aloft. You guys think I do so well thanks to recent bias, but there is heartache for sure. Trust me. I am due to pay the piper.

3/5/01.

12-14-92