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Major Hurricane Irma

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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I just hope people in Florida pay extremely close attention to NOAA/NHC and not a sea of wishcasters and weenies on social media. How the timing evolves and plays out in the modeling and possible future shifts back and forth until we get within the NHC's better forecast skill is going to be hyper critical. The masses throughout the Florida peninsula are going to need to have patience. This is complicated to hell and back this far out, besides getting within the 72 hr range.

 

Yeah agree.  I hate to think what could happen if a large number of people are on the roads when/if Irma rides up Florida.  I booked a hotel in Orlando in case the track shifts West to the Gulf, but the 18z GFS run makes Orlando not look too fun, so I would just stay in Tampa if that track continues to hold.  It's just going to be an incredibly difficult situation for Miami Dade with that mass of humanity and exposure.

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2 minutes ago, ENC2017 said:

I'm located in ENC and have been trying to just educate myself on Irma and how to properly track the storm. I follow tropicaltidbits, the forums here, & storm2k.org so far to try to learn as much as possible. By no means am I trying to be a meteorologist, just looking for genuine information. Anything anyone can tell me about the latest models & what the possibilities are here? Local reporting likes to water down every weather event, so just seeking any help. Thanks everyone! 

Go back about 4 or 5 pages and start reading.  You'll get a lot of information.

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Interesting - hmmm definitely a slight westerly shift in the GEFS at 18Z from 12Z with many more members in the Gulf even with the slightly northerly track early on.  Still way up in the air.  BTW, I'm in Melbourne, FL (mainland side) and have a hotel booked in Tampa just in case.  I figure I'd try give myself options on either coast just to be safe and to beat the rush from folks in S FL the next few days.  If it rides the spine I guess I'll just stay here :(

 

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Completely green on this forum so please forgive a question I have not seen yet. Granted, the path through SFL is not confirmed. But what would storm surge look like in the Keys? And what factors most strongly predict storm surge--pressure, wind direction, wind speed, timing of tides? 

 

Lived in middle Keys during Wilma, and the storm surge was the biggest factor for damage, over wind and rain. The island that Marathon is on was completely awash. Thank Dog it happened during daylight hours. 

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2 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

Are the HMON and HWRF models still "uncoupled" from the ocean? HMON has a 869 mb tropical low just south of the keys.

HWRF is coupled, HMON is not in the Atlantic basin.

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Latest HWRF is just an absolute monster north of Cuba. 924 mb with >160 kt winds at 850 mb.

Hurricane force winds everywhere between northern Cuba and Keys.

hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_43.thumb.png.8c1a6eae77f73fc9a6b16ee49d868404.png

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There is a banter thread. Please use it for general questions and comments not directly related to Irma. If your post disappears it was most likely banter.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

HWRF is coupled, HMON is not in the Atlantic basin.

Added info regarding HWRF

 

  •  Non-hydrostatic, limited-area, finite-difference model
  •  Employs three “nested grids” (the inner two grid follow the TC)
  •  Highest resolution is 3 km grid spacing 
  •  Incorporates a complex “bogus vortex” based on observations
  •  Includes the “3-D assimilation” of environmental observations
  •  Coupled to the ocean
     

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Here's the 18Z HWRF at hour 120. As you can see it's pretty large and intense. On the sim IR product you can see it start to interact with the trough.

uOUHdIM.png

hilBob9.png

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8 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Maybe someone already mentioned this, but the 8pm AST update has the winds at 140 mph now.

Don't think they did (I didn't notice) and I was going to mention the Air Force recon found 135kt flight level and 111kt on a dropsonde. I was thinking that 130 was pretty conservative with those observations so not surprised at all they bumped it up.

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2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Don't think they did (I didn't notice) and I was going to mention the Air Force recon found 135kt flight level and 111kt on a dropsonde. I was thinking that 130 was pretty conservative with those observations so not surprised at all they bumped it up.

Surprised nobody posted this, 132kt at 953mb. 

IMG_1606.JPG

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida.  The hype train has already started.  

Well the governor declared a state of emergency in preparation for Irma. It was probably already hyped a bit after Harvey, but that type of warning will put most people in motion if they weren't already. 

 

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Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity?  She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity?  She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum.

Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity?  She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum.

Given the current satellite presentation and recon obs, id be very surprised... as long as there isn't another ERC, which basing off of the recon radar data that doesn't appear imminent. Only 15mph to go to Cat 5 strength. 

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All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. 

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Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida.  The hype train has already started.  


This isn't the typical snide internet way of asking this question, but what's your source? (Got friends in PBC, sincerely asking--mainstream news, social media, etc?)

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Just now, thess said:

 


This isn't the typical snide internet way of asking this question, but what's your source? (Got friends in PBC, sincerely asking--mainstream news, social media, etc?)

 

A lot of reports/pictures on social media. 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. 

Outer bands are just getting in range of Martinique radar now.

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Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida.  The hype train has already started.  


No water at Wal Mart, generators going fast at Lowes, & lines of people filling gas cans all the way up here in the W FL Panhandle (Pensacola area)!!!


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10 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Given the current satellite presentation and recon obs, id be very surprised... as long as there isn't another ERC, which basing off of the recon radar data that doesn't appear imminent. Only 15mph to go to Cat 5 strength. 

Actually,  it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph).  

 

Edit: But, to your main point, it wouldn't surprise me either.   

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