Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: After another day of watching Irma, I still think that the Florida-South Carolina area remains at the highest risk of U.S. landfall from Irma (though the larger area at some risk of landfall extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Outer Banks of North Carolina; outside that area the risk seems low). I note the 18z GFS, but it seems to be an outlier both among its ensembles and the other guidance. I mostly agree, but still think Florida will be spared the direct hit. Once the models can fully grasp the strength of the trough along the east coast, IRMA will head north. GA, SC , NC I feel currently have the best chance of getting a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said: Isn't that last nights? Yeah strange. That was not the image I copied over. I posted the link instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Strange. Lots of spread on the 00z tropical model guidance. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_00z.png Looks like a good size east shift on some of the models.00z global will be.... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It looks like Antigua may end up on the good side of the eye...especially if it further jogs north. Barbuda needs a serious north movement and St. Kitts isnt looking good either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Forgive me for not knowing all the abbreviations, but is the rightmost cluster GFS and relatives or are they independent models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Looks like a good size east shift on some of the models.00z global will be.... interesting. I think that was to be expected since 18Z GFS was east but then refuted by its ensembles. I believe those early models are based off 18Z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Looks like a good size east shift on some of the models.00z global will be.... interesting. Not sure I buy the east solutions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks like Antigua may end up on the good side of the eye...especially if it further jogs north. Barbuda needs a serious north movement and St. Kitts isnt looking good either Is there a 'good side of the eye' in a Cat5 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Just posting this for posterity. As an aviation enthusiast, this breaks my heart. Poor Maho Beach 2017/09/06 00:24TNCM 060012Z 0600/0624 04014KT P6SM VCSH SCT018 FM060300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT015 BKN060 OVC080 FM060500 33055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050 FM060700 300140G160KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030 FM061100 26090G120KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030 FM061700 20055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050 I've written some doozy TAFs, but this takes the cake. I think I'd be forecasting a lower vis, but I doubt it terribly matters. Not like there's going to be a way to verify it with a sensor when it's been blown away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure I buy the east solutions though. I do if the trough hangs back more Maybe we are going back to the solutions from last weekend where the mid Atlantic was hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: Forgive me for not knowing all the abbreviations, but is the rightmost cluster GFS and relatives or are they independent models? They are the beta advection model variations (TABx) and COAMPS (Cxxx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, jayson said: Is there a 'good side of the eye' in a Cat5 storm? Especially when cat 5 winds have been measured in every quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 San Juan FCST seems way overdone unless this ends up much further south. 05014KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN080 FM060600 07020G30KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN080 FM061300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT030 BKN060 FM061600 33045G65KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050 FM062300 27060G80KT 6SM -SHRA SCT015 BKN030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 34 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: That central deep covection is now a perfectly smooth donut - on the outer edge too - wow - never seen something like that, even with past annular hurricanes: Absolutely stunning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recon. had a 913.1 mb extrapolated surface pressure a short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 For now the concentric structure on radar appears to be stable. You would figure at some point it would lead to an ERC, no clue on time time frame for that though. might not be soon enough for Barbuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Recon. had a 913.1 mb extrapolated surface pressure a short time ago. Aren't extrap pressure usually a few mb lower than dropsonde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Aren't extrap pressure usually a few mb lower than dropsonde? Usually, that's the case. I'll look for the dropsonde once I get home, as it's easier to do on the computer than the phone. 917 mb with the dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Poor St Martin, that island is one of my favorite to visit. I'm sure the airport will be closed for quite some time. As far as PR is concerned, I believe they escape the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 More than half the 00z hurricane models have Irma maintaining Cat 5 or high end cat 4 status thorough day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 47 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: That central deep covection is now a perfectly smooth donut - on the outer edge too - wow - never seen something like that, even with past annular hurricanes: Perfection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I am wondering if Antigua misses the southern eyewall too. It looks like a direct strike to Barbuda as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planoclima Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: More than half the 00z hurricane models have Irma maintaining Cat 5 or high end cat 4 status thorough day 5. Could be a record breaking storm in many aspects...hopefully not in casualties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, csnavywx said: I've written some doozy TAFs, but this takes the cake. I think I'd be forecasting a lower vis, but I doubt it terribly matters. Not like there's going to be a way to verify it with a sensor when it's been blown away. Yeah I was wondering about both the high visibility and the -shra. Like really? They probably know the airport is shutting down and just saying f it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Closer look of the 00z hurricane models... majority of them are east of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks like Antigua may end up on the good side of the eye...especially if it further jogs north. Barbuda needs a serious north movement and St. Kitts isnt looking good either Been watching St Kitts all day (family hunkered down)... and thinking the slight northern component has spared them the worst... do you disagree? Bleary eyes here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am wondering if Antigua misses the southern eyewall too. It looks like a direct strike to Barbuda as of now. The good news being that Barbuda is flat as a board and only lightly populated (especially by comparison to the dense populations of some of the other islands) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/905224461028380673 what do you guys think 190 mph at 11 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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