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Ginx snewx

Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Your local climo has definitely improved from your old neighborhood! Ground and car tops whitened but definitely < 1" here. Elevation and further inland obviously critical in this setup.

I had to pick up something after work from the vet-VCA in Brookline Village-then drove over to Whole Foods on Washington St.   Definite difference even with the front ender.  West Roxbury had a lot more too it seemed.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Up to 12.6"...latest core was 2.2"/0.24"

The last hurrah here may get us to 13".

Congrats dendrite.  Figure out a way to get a dozen long stems if you know what's good for you...

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Hard to blame anyone for being too bullish, it really looked like models were trending towards a robust CCB this morning. If this was 3/1 instead of 4/1 it would be a much different story I think.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow!  Oh'  what could have been with this one.

considering that at around 10pm last night there was a little over 0.5inches in the rain gauge, this thing really was a qpf bomb for my area...just no cold air

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 I'll check when I get home but I think this puts me at  somewhere between 73 -75"  for the  season.  not bad considering January and half of February were a disaster.

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14"   32.3F  Light  snow.  ( This measurement is just taking the yardstick into the undisturbed snow.  I did not clear at all from start to now.  If I had cleared every 6 hours I'm sure my total would be higher as this is heavy snow that probably has compacted some)

Looking close to the end.  This ended up being my largest snowfall in a few years.  Started yesterday late morning as very light snow and 33F.  During the day it stayed very light and didn't accumulate on surfaces except existing snowcover.  As it got dark and snowfall increased temps slowly feel to 29 to 30F and stayed there for most of the duration.  Slowly has warmed today and with bright skies has made it up to just above freezing.  Very little snow stuck to the trees up at my elevation and there was a bit of blowing and drifting.  Before the storm our average old snowcover was down to about 6" on average.  Some bare spots but deeper snow in the woods.

Looks like a lot of rain this week.  With a rapidly melting pack tomorrow and Monday and then a lot of rain the rivers should really rise up here...

This should be it for winter unless Tuesday's storm trends colder and we can get some more snow at higher elevations of Central and NNE.

Total seasonal snowfall is at 105" ish give or take 5".

 

Prius snow.jpg

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I'll check when I get home but I think this puts me at  somewhere between 73 -75"  for the  season.  not bad considering January and half of February were a disaster.

Counting this sleet slop I'm at 65" for the season. I usually get a foot or so less than you so your total seems about right.

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37 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

BL temps were certainly an issue. Even in areas that stayed all snow, much was lost on the warmer surfaces. 

I warned about this several days ago, but caveats need to be taken seriously when you have these early mid level occulusions and quick vertical stackers. I don't like em--they are not "clean" in the warm and cold sectors, and contain broad circulations that are often contaminated with warm air intrusions. Where is the CCB ?-- well it's there--sort of. The problem is, it cut itself off --cut off  as in cut off from the cold air--more than a day ago and hence the lack of cold air funneling into the mid levels and ultimately down to the surface. And worse still, positive feedback never really gets going--where are those UL height falls on the back side of this? Trick question...The worst thing you can do --forecasting wise--with a storm like this is perceive it as your stereotypical nor'easter. 

Also there were many people warning about the inaccuracy of snow maps in an event like this. Eventually that rationale was thrown out --eye candy trumped objectivity---and we couldnt go one model run without having to look at one. Those maps certainly lured us in, like a subtle trap.

I have to give you credit on this one J.   You warned alot of people about the problems this could have...and I think your ideas were more right than wrong with this system.   Nice Job imo.

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1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Not that anyone was expecting anything remotely close to that once-in-a-lifetime event, but it was an apt thread title Ginx:

Millennial kid of April 97... tons of social media hype... none of the meat and substance of the original:

Beacon_Hill_April_1997.jpg.a31a73cdc425485adb2388fc742cd68f.jpg

Beacon Hill, April 1, 1997

Not your Daddy's fool

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Snowing parachutes here but my goodness, this was one hell of a moisture-laden beast. When this baby finally pulls away, we'll probably  end up with at least 2.50" of water, possibly more. Drought canceled

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it was more about the mid levels...at least where I am.

Yeah we hashed this out a few times. It wasn't really a boundary layer issue verbatim. It's all tied in. For you it was a mid level issue. When you loose the power of latent cooling by cooking the DGZ, you will get temps to creep slowly up. Yesterday I got to 31.8 during daytime with east winds. As soon as I lost the snow, temp creeped slowly up. Where you are temps were plenty sufficient from what I saw on aircraft soundings. Even now, it's snowing good on s shore and we wetbulbed to 32 with snow on roads. When you skunk the DGZ you are screwed this time of year.

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Out at winter hill...

 

Not bad. Decent icing on the trees and just over 4" of very very dense snow:

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Non accumulating nonsense. Just under 3" of rain.  Lot of street flooding and ringers/streams are running high.

Reservoirs around here are pretty full.   Drought seems to be all set

 

This event takes me over 90" for the season

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Ray one suggestion as a regular lurker: ease up on the bluster. There were lots of posts Thursday and Friday along the lines of the "conservative call, but I prefer the correct call" reply to SR Airglow, "a good mechanic looks over and under the hood", mocking some TV mets anticipating they would sink with their conservative forecasts. It can be annoying, and even amusing when it's wrong. The conservative calls Thursday were well-reasoned and proved to be correct. Your calls were also well-reasoned, and you saw I was up late last night thinking it was possible after that doozy 0z RGEM.

And it was extremely close. Had 800-825 layer cooled by 9z as some models had it last night (rather than 14z-15z in reality), Boston / northwest could easily be in a 4-8 / 6-12 range.

Don't take this the wrong way. You're obviously very skilled and experienced, and I know most here could not pull off the seasonal forecasts that you make (certainly I could not). But the one consistent "golden nugget" season after season is that this is often an extremely hard science that is better approached with humility. Our currency here is who is first to be correct, so there's a lure to be confident when your forecast is earlier or counter to consensus. But even the pro's fail and they move on. I am only a hobbyist, but to echo Will, it's the nature of this business. Harv's 2-4" for Boston / 4-8" for you was too high. NWS currently still has 4-6" for Boston / 6-8" for you and like many of us flinched with the 0z suite and put up 6-8" / 8-12". TWC at one point I think had 12-18" or something stupid for eastern MA. And they are all paid infinitely more than you or I to make an accurate forecast. I think even Hillbilly Weather guy was wrong.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Out at winter hill...

 

Not bad. Decent icing on the trees and just over 4" of very very dense snow:

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Nice. Not far off from 2011 minus the icing?

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23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Heavy snow on 495 between Mansfield and Taunton. Highway got covered in like 90 seconds

Cotton balls falling at home with a coating 

I was wondering that to myself based on some of the high-res guidance last night... wouldn't it be ironic if parts of southeast MA ended up with significantly more than Boston metro / north shore as the CCB compacted southeast.

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8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I was wondering that to myself based on some of the high-res guidance last night... wouldn't it be ironic if parts of southeast MA ended up with significantly more than Boston metro / north shore as the CCB compacted southeast.

It's been snowing pretty hard for a while now.... but it's basically white rain outside of a coating.... under normal circumstances.... probably would have 3-4" at this point 

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24 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ray one suggestion as a regular lurker: ease up on the bluster. There were lots of posts Thursday and Friday along the lines of the "conservative call, but I prefer the correct call" reply to SR Airglow, "a good mechanic looks over and under the hood", mocking some TV mets anticipating they would sink with their conservative forecasts. It can be annoying, and even amusing when it's wrong. The conservative calls Thursday were well-reasoned and proved to be correct. Your calls were also well-reasoned, and you saw I was up late last night thinking it was possible after that doozy 0z RGEM.

And it was extremely close. Had 800-825 layer cooled by 9z as some models had it last night (rather than 14z-15z in reality), Boston / northwest could easily be in a 4-8 / 6-12 range.

Don't take this the wrong way. You're obviously very skilled and experienced, and I know most here could not pull off the seasonal forecasts that you make (certainly I could not). But the one consistent "golden nugget" season after season is that this is often an extremely hard science that is better approached with humility. Our currency here is who is first to be correct, so there's a lure to be confident when your forecast is earlier or counter to consensus. But even the pro's fail and they move on. I am only a hobbyist, but to echo Will, it's the nature of this business. Harv's 2-4" for Boston / 4-8" for you was too high. NWS currently still has 4-6" for Boston / 6-8" for you and like many of us flinched with the 0z suite and put up 6-8" / 8-12". TWC at one point I think had 12-18" or something stupid for eastern MA. And they are all paid infinitely more than you or I to make an accurate forecast. I think even Hillbilly Weather guy was wrong.

Point taken......I like to forecast with gusto.

I understand the risk if it blows up, but if you aren't confident in what you're doing, then why do it.

I was wrong....feel free to critique.

One thing about me is that despite certainly being cocky and arrogant at times, I will always openly admit when I'm wrong, and give credit where is due...as i did publicly with DT on FB.

On a side note...this event remind me greatly of the halloween 2011 system here...with a bit more sleet.

 

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