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Ginx snewx

Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's going to take more than a couple of storms to balance out the sample size of storm defecations that the NAM had. 

I am curious to see (in a year or so) how the upgraded NAM does vs the others

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Another flag that jbenedet and others discussed, the maritime influence skunking the boundary layer here and further north, so no decent cold pool to advect from up north... And now that dynamics are fizzling for dynamical cooling, we're actually going back to rain. The upshot: not even a 15 minute window of spectacular spring snow. We'll see how much further northwest these echoes can make it but not looking great.

 

hey its cold at 925, beware the marine layer in all seasons its a biatch

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Just now, danstorm said:

It's been happening more and more - it's not blind anymore... NAM killed it down here on March 14 and last Jan it led the way too

Eh. It's like every winter to me. It always scores a coup or two but it's often within a sea of incompetency. I'll give it credit that it was decent in two high profile events (last January and March 14th this year) but it's had some really horrible ones too. I mean, that's why we still check it and don't completely ignore it like the nogaps or cras model...since it does occasionally provide some usefulness. But I still weight it pretty low overall...I usually really want the RGEM to confirm it. 

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Still coming down in the CPV. BTV has made it to 100" for the season. I am not at home to measure but I am sure it is north of 7"

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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The marine layer is only an issue when you don't have the latent heat of melting helping to cool the column. If we did not have the warm tongue, you would have no issues as it's still cold a couple of thousand feet up. You'd [probably cool down to 32-33 and heavy paste. But with the sleet and rain, you lose that physical process.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

hey its cold at 925, beware the marine layer in all seasons its a biatch

I don't think the marine layer was really a big issue. It was midlevel temps. 

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Still coming down in the CPV. BTV has made it to 100" for the season. I am not at home to measure but I am sure it is north of 7"

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

You can stop whining now.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's going to take more than a couple of storms to balance out the sample size of storm defecations that the NAM had. 

Also wonder if that sampling has seasonal biases... NAM probably would score really well if we looked only at April snowstorms lol

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

pics? I am at work

Yeah. I tried, but it does not translate well with the camera phone. Not too exciting.  Coming down at a nice clip but will have nothing to show for it in the end.

20170401_105034.jpg

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think the marine layer was really a big issue. It was midlevel temps. 

except it rained a lot too so the whole column was tainted by warmth on the CP 10-15 miles inland. those flags were huge.

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Big difference in east slope and west slope with the SE-ly upslope flow.

West Slopes got little to nothing.

Find the Spine based on the Precip Reports.

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2.gif.801e67c8c777f566d1765d0190950780.gif

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

except it rained a lot too so the whole column was tainted by warmth on the CP 10-15 miles inland. those flags were huge.

It's gonna rain even if 950 is below 0C if you are like +2 at 850. If the 950 layer is cold enough or deep enough you refreeze into pellets but if it's like -2 or -3 then it might not. But if 850 is cold enough then you easily latently cool to freezing or just below because of the ice crystals trying to melt in the lowest layer and you get heavy snow. There's a reason everyone was snowing last night before the midlevels got too warm...even with kind of meh dynamics.  

Thats what makes it about the midlevels. The midlevels warming a lot overnight also hurt the depth of the SGZ so that the CCB has been a bit less efficient this morning. 

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Truthfully when I got up to pee at 7 and saw it wasn't snowing I was relieved to get the extra sleep.  Got out of bed at 10 am and it was snow-ripping pretty good now.   People forget the most important variable in this event-the fact that it's April and there isn't much margin of error in SNE.

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Seems like the snow is mostly done here. The initial NWS range of 6-8" worked out here locally, but there were definitely a lot of busts in places. We picked up a quick 2-3" this morning after changeover which saved things here. The ice on the trees has basically locked in the snow, even with the wind it's not blowing off much.

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