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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What does that have to do with it?

 

Yes, all we heard about was how frigid the antecedent conditions would be, but is was seasonable cold leading into this storm.

It was not arctic.

I'm surprised we are still mostly snow

we must be around a foot now

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I'm thinking 13.5'' is final here. Snow went light quick and never really picked back up. Should've stuck with 12-20'' but fell for the very consistent model signal of 1.75''+ of liquid. When the Euro corroborates NAM QPF it's hard to say no. 

Awesome storm overall though. Don't see a lot of foot+ storms here. And certainly don't see 3+''/hr rates often, especially with average at best growth.

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In a system so intense as this where there is so much going on it's extremely unlikely that any one model will handle the storm great.  There are just too many complexities and too much mesoscale aspects for that to happen.  Have to look at each and every model and try to find what that model has been the most consistent with, know what each model's biases are for similar setups, climo, etc.  IMO, when dealing with these setups which show potential you have to look back at other monster events and see exactly how things transpired.  If looking at the setup and there are numerous flags that is a big eye opener that it may not pan out.  Trends are very important and its silly to use statement's like "oh its the NAM" or "its the GFS" to discount potential outcomes.  

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1 hour ago, Dan said:

Much wetter snow than I expected, probably why the totals are a bit lower.  Some pretty crazy house rattlers out there tho.  Really impressive gusts at times.

 

10.5" here so far.  Biggest single storm total of the season, perviously 9.5"

Hi Dan,

 I just got back in from shoveling outside of my home in Methuen. A reasonable good estimate using a measuring stick is 12-13. Somewhat of an underperformer snowfall wise, but a overperformer sleet wise. A lot more sleet than what any forecaster had this morning for our area. Very heavy snow to say the least. 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re #1 ...it depends on what aspect:  The models handled the advent of a system remarkably well...picking up on a storm way in advance and despite some arguable more or less impacting model cycle depictions, they persisted.  

If we want to get into details and particulars... like timing rain vs snow and amounts --- Oy yoi yoi.. Perhaps some of that ambiguity could have been cleared up by a pure phase.. We got into trouble with this guy because he wasn't really shaking hands between steams too well, and that sort of tilted the system and maybe for warm layers and dry-slots and other migraines.  

Re #2 ...probably should let the system truly wind down before assessing but ... yeah, it appears 1 to 1.5" should do it; perhaps half ?  I'm less than certain about the exact numbers and that's also yet to be determined.. It may be the source region for the southern component having a hefty PWAT source.  QPF is not a very good metric in atmospheric modeling though anyway?  It's actually not uncommon for x-y-z locations to bust high or low regardless of predictability of event. 

Re: #1 model failure: That's true. We were commenting what an incredible consensus there was for a significant coastal as far back as 4-5 days before.

But still, I feel like we've encountered complexities of a partial phase and tilted lows before... I'm surprised how lost guidance was even 12 hours before onset.

The one blockbuster solution we had (all-timer at least for eastern SNE, but really a huge hit for most on this forum) was Euro 12z Friday. It was a slow discombobulated downhill from there.

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