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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think that area of sleet is the official changeover. You can see it dying off with snow behind it. Whew! First warning shot missed the bow I think

I think you're good for at least til 2-3am. You are far enough north. These yellowbands are fun, you get about an inch in like 15 minutes.

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

Pingers and Fatties but now temp has gone down from 32 to 30.9 in 15 mins. Actually full transition to heavy sleet west of Dale city

You may flip back to snow. The sleet transition is ragged and I can see pockets of snow to the south of it. Keep the obs going. 

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For those posting HRRR Kuchera or 10:1 maps note that unless you are using Bufkit or otherwise it's going to be most likely wrong! Look at this time cross section. Lots of melting layer where the raw output is snow. Below is th 00z HRRR run.

hrrr_RH-TMP_KDCA.thumb.png.b72ca9a9bb46e91184eae660b974417e.png

 

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Once these yellow deathbands reach you, central and north Marylanders, its going to get very enjoyable. Some of these bands may present 3-4 inch an hour rates. They will be all snow for you, all night long and well into Tuesday. Enjoy em! Let's see, how much snow is about twelve hours at 3-4 inches an hour from deathbands........

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42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looking at the 1z hrrr seems like the model is showing colder air in the mid levels getting drawn down into the deepening low pressure so the sleet line meets a little more resistance in MD. That battleground is going to be pretty wild to watch. A couple more nudges and a million extra snow weenies get some solid totals. 

You can see the feature that showed up on the Euro today (and a couple models yesterday, I think) showing up on the 01z HRRR.  Here are the 22z-01z runs.

EcTSzYf.gif

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