Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea this h5 doesn't say OTS to me. If it develops too late, same thing..though we all know the secondary banding that forms north west of town...Euro handled that better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'd like to cash out, but Philly and even extreme NE MD is basically doubling our total. When I start seeing 2 feet+ just northeast of us, I have to hope for more southern solution plus capture and stall. At the same time, it skipping over us or coming too far west and getting almost or absolutely nothing is still very much in play. It's all a moot point since snow maps this far out aren't reality, but the totals you're looking at probably include tomorrow morning's snow. This was a general 12-20" from Baltimore through NYC. No one's 2 ft plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: If it develops too late, same thing..though we all know the secondary banding that forms north west of town...Euro handled that better... I am just glad EURO is on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS depiction would be a nail biter as we got to gametime. Waiting for 1.5"/hr rates to develop nearly overhead with nothing on radar to our south? I prefer the Euro and GGEM depictions. This one still makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: GFS looks good imby Yeah ill take 18" in march!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS depiction would be a nail biter as we got to gametime. Waiting for 1.5"/hr rates to develop nearly overhead with nothing on radar to our south? I prefer the Euro and GGEM depictions. This one still makes me nervous. Yeah it would be terrifying. I get nervous with storms like last January, which was in the bag. I think everyone is nervous with this one. Insane potential but huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS depiction would be a nail biter as we got to gametime. Waiting for 1.5"/hr rates to develop nearly overhead with nothing on radar to our south? I prefer the Euro and GGEM depictions. This one still makes me nervous. Yes, it does make all of us nervous. The thing this window (Monday night through Tuesday night) has going for it, as someone else pointed out earlier today, is that the 12Z suite was basically "4 different ways to make it snow hard" over the area. Though this GFS run is still messy, the signal's there for heavy precip from at least southern VA northeastward starting in 4.5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We need the 50/50 to be moving out and the blocking to break. That's what allows this to amplify. The 50/50 and blocking is about getting the antecedent conditions needed. But yes it's a delicate balance. Those break too fast and we rain. Too slow and suppression. The Sunday vort was a little too soon. Hopefully the Tuesday one is just right and not 12 hours too late. How soon do you think the models will have any confidence in said delicate balance going one way or the other? Sounds like it may not be until Sunday! (And really, in a winter where absolutely nothing has gone right, "a delicate balance" is the last thing you wanna hear, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS depiction would be a nail biter as we got to gametime. Waiting for 1.5"/hr rates to develop nearly overhead with nothing on radar to our south? I prefer the Euro and GGEM depictions. This one still makes me nervous. GFS is showing its south and east bias with the surface reflection..just like Feb 14...Just like Jan 16...It doesn't seem to pick up on orographics like the euro and that could just be a resolution issue......the euro precip distribution makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like a very quick hitting storm on the GFS, entirely overnight. Starts 8pm Monday, and ends probably around 5am, definitely well before 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Have we had a bomb before with the nao and ao looking like dirt? eta: pna rages west based block. Displaced PV. Low heights building to our northeast in the 50/50 region. What about this is dirt? Now not every good setup leads to a good storm but this setup looks fine to me. It's what first tipped some of us off to this threat a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: west based block. Displaced PV. Low heights building to our northeast in the 50/50 region. What about this is dirt? Now not every good setup leads to a good storm but this setup looks fine to me. It's what first tipped some of us off to this threat a week ago. but that's days before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea this h5 doesn't say OTS to me. Nope. My expectation for this event is snow to rain to snow here. Could even trend worse. This is why I would have preferred to have a stronger sw for this weekend, when the block and the vortex under it is ideal. Would not have been a huge storm, but we all could have a had cold powder. Probably too much confluence/too flat/too fast a flow to support a healthy sw though. This set up has much more potential for a big snowstorm, but its living on the edge, as the h5 pattern breaks down on the NA side leading in. Your area has a good chance of a favorable outcome, but places along I-95 and E its touch and go. Sure is fun to track though, regardless of the ultimate outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS depiction would be a nail biter as we got to gametime. Waiting for 1.5"/hr rates to develop nearly overhead with nothing on radar to our south? I prefer the Euro and GGEM depictions. This one still makes me nervous. You and me both. My worry is high and dry, relatively. I need that thing to develop quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: but that's days before You do realize that many big storms happen when the block is breaking down. This one would fit the bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'd like to see it become less progressive. It doesn't really feel like a blocking storm until it's too late for us. I don't like waiting/hoping for thump. Same here. I'd also prefer to see at least some of it during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'd like to see it become less progressive. It doesn't really feel like a blocking storm until it's too late for us. I don't like waiting/hoping for thump. Me too. Too quick-hitting. Need the low to really get going farther south and then need a faster capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS depiction would be a nail biter as we got to gametime. Waiting for 1.5"/hr rates to develop nearly overhead with nothing on radar to our south? I prefer the Euro and GGEM depictions. This one still makes me nervous. Yup, and we know how this crowd is. "BUST!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: You do realize that many big storms happen when the block is breaking down. This one would fit the bill. True. The breakdown just seems to occur so early ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I think it's the best look we have had all season. I have been skeptical with any system this winter as the amplification and pattern support has been out west all year. It never quite came together for us and I could just see Sunday's system failing before it even entered the medium range. This pattern however looks much more favorable IF it's being modeled correctly. The sharp amplified ridge out west and strong jet energy diving south will likely force some serious energy into that trough with a vigorous low developing. That's certain with what I'm seeing. What concerns me is the timing of the trough, when it goes negative tilt and whether not it can capture at our latitude. Also...how much cold air is still around...if track is hugging the coast, could see warmer air come right in and make a mess of P-types. It has some similarities to Feb 2014 except in March. Hope the brunt falls overnight as sampled. Legitimate threat and kudos to you for pointing this out. I respect your view and opinion. Thanks for the thoughts and compliment. Hopefully the potential becomes ground truth this time or I might have to go into hiding. But I just kept seeing the trend in the h5 and how the see saw between Sunday being squashed in favor of a bigger amplification behind it as the blocking and 50/50 break down and I had the gut feeling there should be a big storm up the east coast there. But that's the easy part. The details which determine our fate have to go our way. Nervously optimistic right now. I enjoy your posts when you pop in. Hope to see more of them the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Man you guys are picky haha jk but i kinda like the quick hitting high rate idea in march when theres marginal temps. Half an inch a hour rates wont cut it this time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: If it develops too late, same thing..though we all know the secondary banding that forms north west of town...Euro handled that better... There is a reason for that as there is enhanced lift there as the moisture banks up against the higher terrain. That little bit of added lift has to have a lot to do with why the banding always sets up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I was away for a bit...came back to read this page and I would swear 18z was a bust...too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, BTRWx said: but that's days before I don't have time right now but maybe someone (or you) will post where those indexes were on storm dates. I'll bet some are similar. The blocking and 50/50 have to break down first or it won't amplify. But I have already admitted the threat here is west and that's because it MAY be coming slightly late in the window. But not every storm is perfect. It's not a bad setup. With any luck at all we will do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I was away for a bit...came back to read this page and I would swear 18z was a bust...too funny Folks are really skittish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Folks are really skittish. No. That is not it... We are just never happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7.5" mean on the GEFS. Steadily increases as you head N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Lord have freaking mercy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking just at the southern stream, the CMC looks significantly different than the GFS by *Saturday* morning. The CMC is really loaded and wet. I'm thinking there's going to more jumping around with the "looks" of the storm tonight on the CMC at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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