March med-long range disco 3

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

How much snow is that?

1.2-1.4" QPF so probably 12-16".  

[BristowWx]

It would be nice to knock 1993 off the list.  Better than 6.6 seems plausible I think.  Making top ten list would be cool

[cae]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who is excited for the weeklies?!!

This actually made me laugh out loud. 

 

 

 

So how do they look?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Per the folks above, it is actually off the list now. I'm at top 3 or bust right now. 4-8 doesn't do much for me in the context of this winter. I'm on an island, I know. 

No I agree with you.  A solid 8 inches is a nice event.  4 is meh but this year will take anything.  But call me crazy I don't see a measured 8 inches downtown DC.  4 perhaps.  

[CAPE]

12" or bust. This is it. There wont be another event. 12 would get me very close to climo here.

Make it 13 then.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, cae said:

This actually made me laugh out loud. 

 

 

 

So how do they look?

I posted a bit in banter. Cold every week straight through lol. Figures. Of course we get that now.  

If you mean snow wise it gets increasingly difficult after this week and nothing sticks out as cold enough but who knows. Maybe we get one more crazy shot at a wet snow paste job somewhere. Doubt it. Probably just cold dreary spring weather. 

[Eskimo Joe]

This could work out if it mostly falls at night...air mass is fresh and the system is certainly dynamic.  It's been ages since we had a wicked paste bomb.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This could work out if it mostly falls at night...air mass is fresh and the system is certainly dynamic.  It's been ages since we had a wicked paste bomb.

I'm really liking the timing of this so far.  A thump between 2-8z or so would be just about ideal.  

Still don't prefer the more Miller-B higher latitude transfer shown on the GFS/GEFS. But it seems to be trending more toward a Euro/GGEM-like solution with each iteration, so we'll see.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This could work out if it mostly falls at night...air mass is fresh and the system is certainly dynamic.  It's been ages since we had a wicked paste bomb.

The antecedent airmass is one of the high points with the setup. It's damn cold for March and would still be considered good in DJF. Leads to some confidence that even a tucked track would still be at least part snow in the cities. It would be a big bummer to end up all rain. As long as there's a storm we should all get some snow except maybe east of the bay. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The antecedent airmass is one of the high points with the setup. It's damn cold for March and would still be considered good in DJF. Leads to some confidence that even a tucked track would still be at least part snow in the cities. It would be a big bummer to end up all rain. As long as there's a storm we should all get some snow except maybe east of the bay. 

Seems to me that if we get a primary west of the mnts we will end up in a cad situation.  Doubt we get all rain.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm really liking the timing of this so far.  A thump between 2-8z or so would be just about ideal.  

Still don't prefer the more Miller-B higher latitude transfer shown on the GFS/GEFS. But it seems to be trending more toward a Euro/GGEM-like solution with each iteration, so we'll see.  

That southern storm not clearing out is our insurance policy against missing to the NE like other miller b's. This isn't a classic miller b at all. There's a bunch of energy hanging around to the south. I cant really think of a single analog. Maybe Matt or Gym or PSU can think of one. 

[Sparky]

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I like that solution better.  Little more off shore.  It's getting too close for my comfort. 

That's a borderline whiff.  I would be worried if it were that far off the coast.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The antecedent airmass is one of the high points with the setup. It's damn cold for March and would still be considered good in DJF. Leads to some confidence that even a tucked track would still be at least part snow in the cities. It would be a big bummer to end up all rain. As long as there's a storm we should all get some snow except maybe east of the bay. 

Thanks Bob.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks Bob.

Lol- I was thinking the southern delmarva. You're further north than my latitude.  You get crushed no problem.  

We good now?

[DC2Winston]

Gun to head...how much snow (if any) inside DC beltway from Tuesday-maybe storm?

[Fozz]

Just now, CARDC79 said:

Gun to head...how much snow (if any) inside DC beltway from Tuesday-maybe storm?

5-7"

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Lol- I was thinking the southern delmarva. You're further north than my latitude.  You get crushed no problem.  

We good now?

lol

I am always wary of these type setups. It can range from really good to crapola here. This is a tough one because the NA pattern is quite good leading up, but then rapidly breaking down. So it all hinges on the details with the primary, the transfer, degree of phasing, and the proximity of the coastal low to the coast once it deepens. I'm good though. Lots of fun tracking times this winter despite mostly futility. I am in till the end(even tho I am somehow dead).

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Remember a while ago when I said I love the People of the Bay. There you have it  

Seriously though, I think Bob is right about temps. At least we're not fighting a bad antecedent airmass as progged right now. Again, I'm worried right now about 1) this being too progressive and we're waiting on a thump that doesn't happen and 2) a far west track. 

The southern energy being around makes me a bit less rattled, but a super late phase there and poof lol

Valid concerns. Right now I would be more worried about number 2 (not far west, but west). That could very well change in a few hours, however.

[mattie g]

21 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Gun to head...how much snow (if any) inside DC beltway from Tuesday-maybe storm?

2-4"

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Saw this on twitter. 18z CMC? Who cares it's a huge hit for us. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That southern storm not clearing out is our insurance policy against missing to the NE like other miller b's. This isn't a classic miller b at all. There's a bunch of energy hanging around to the south. I cant really think of a single analog. Maybe Matt or Gym or PSU can think of one. 

Hmmm perhaps. I'm still getting vibes from a couple storms which shall not be named with the GFS/GEFS solution. But until I look at the NARR more closely to compare, I can't get any more definitive than vibes.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Saw this on twitter. 18z CMC? Who cares it's a huge hit for us. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Since when did it come out 4x a day?  I love watching the progression of its depiction...classic look for us.

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Saw this on twitter. 18z CMC? Who cares it's a huge hit for us. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

That looks fantastic. Love those Canadians. Get deformed for days.

[theproftw]

And it forecasts hourly, woah. I'll gladly take that. 

[cae]

9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Saw this on twitter. 18z CMC? Who cares it's a huge hit for us. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

The first 48 hours are the 18z RGEM.  The rest is from the 12z GGEM.

That's a good site to bookmark.  It's usually one of the first to show the latest RGEM run.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

4 minutes ago, cae said:

The first 48 hours are the 18z RGEM.  The rest is from the 12z GGEM.

That's a good site to bookmark.  It's usually one of the first to show the latest RGEM run.

Damn. Thought someone had fed my model addiction. Oh well. It looks even better on that site.

[Amped]

So with the NAVGEM the only model without a sub 1000mb low near the Carolina coast is the GFS?

[Bob Chill]

Weeklies have a storm signal March 26th. No kidding either. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That southern storm not clearing out is our insurance policy against missing to the NE like other miller b's. This isn't a classic miller b at all. There's a bunch of energy hanging around to the south. I cant really think of a single analog. Maybe Matt or Gym or PSU can think of one. 

Not many great examples. December 69 had some similarities with how the northern stream dove in and phases with a weaker stj system.  Feb 72 was even more extreme and this has a much better antecedent setup. Feb 78 evolved somewhat similar but with even less stj system and a further east dig of the vort. But the h5 cut off earlier to compensate. Some similarities there but this has more stj moisture. January 22 87 had a close evolution with northern stream diving into a developing southeastern system.

Off the top of my head one of the best analogs, and not one you will like, might be december 1992. This has a better airmass in place but that storm developed the same way and is a cautionary tale of how this could go wrong if it cuts off too far west and early.  The threat is if the trough digs in too far west and amped it could pull the coastal in west instead of the coastal pulling the energy to the coast then we end up with some triple point low over the Chesapeake bay and watch interior PA and upstate NY get crushed. I doubt it goes that extreme but that's the risk I think. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies have a storm signal March 26th. No kidding either. 

Yea saw that but figured I might get something thrown at me if I went into that. Lol plus odds favor wet over white by then without some luck. But it's there.