jbenedet Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Western part of Rockingham and Strafford really haven't been in it like the eastern part of the counties. I probably could've kept coastal Rockingham in, but it was a tough call. Needed to do something with them by 10 AM because they were expiring anyway. Opted for wind advisories with blowing/drifting impacts instead. Fair enouh. I see your point. But the cities are all in the NE sections of those counties--Rochester, somersworth, Dover, Portsmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well and there's the weenie problem. Focusing on the high of the range. Because a forecast of 8" and getting 4" or 12" is the same relative miss (though everyone would take the high bust versus low). Our SOO and I were just having a discussion about snowfall forecasting, and I would be curious to see what some other mets would say, but when forecasting snowfall you should always be at least a little concerned you are too low on amounts. Otherwise, you have a high bias. And that's really not a good thing to have. I feel like we are sometimes going to gangbusters and overthinking things on forecasts that aren't exactly brainteasers. I can't speak for Maine obviously, but I think it was pretty obvious that the BOS area struggle for a bit with snow. I felt like many people were throwing out numbers way to high and still kept at it yesterday when the trend was there. So now, not only do you give the met community a bad name...you now have repercussions such as economic issues and hardships by school/business cancellations..etc. Whatever happened to going with the more likely outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 I follow somebody from Halifax NS on Instagram ... here is a photo she took today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 blizzard conditions at Augusta ME, with 45mph wind gusts. I believe this HZ (haze) is in error and it is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I follow somebody from Halifax NS on Instagram ... here is a photo she took today Incredible snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Euro has turned from Dr No to Dr Yes Fake You Out Siiiiike I Meant No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like we are sometimes going to gangbusters and overthinking things on forecasts that aren't exactly brainteasers. I can't speak for Maine obviously, but I think it was pretty obvious that the BOS area struggle for a bit with snow. I felt like many people were throwing out numbers way to high and still kept at it yesterday when the trend was there. So now, not only do you give the met community a bad name...you now have repercussions such as economic issues and hardships by school/business cancellations..etc. Whatever happened to going with the more likely outcome? It's an interesting way to look at it. Your forecast really should bust equally high and low, otherwise you have a baked in forecaster bias. I certainly know some people who never bust on the high side, because they are always out on the limb already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Lol gagetown at 25.5" now. 17.4" in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Total snowfall as of 1:00 pm: 22.8". Temp: 24°F. North Bath, Maine. Snowfall has let up substantially. Right now light snow and very windy. Heavy snow bands just to my east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I follow somebody from Halifax NS on Instagram ... here is a photo she took today Nuclear winter. 5 minutes ago, Chinook said: blizzard conditions at Augusta ME, with 45mph wind gusts. I believe this HZ (haze) is in error and it is snow Yeah, present wx kicked the bucket this morning because the blowing snow cakes the sensor. AUG is in a perfect spot up on a hill to really get into windy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 16" at 3,000ft 13" at 1,500ft 13" at 750ft. Nice widespread event for all in this part of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Somebody DE is going to see 3', Already 26"+ totals being reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's an interesting way to look at it. Your forecast really should bust equally high and low, otherwise you have a baked in forecaster bias. I certainly know some people who never bust on the high side, because they are always out on the limb already. I think we are good enough to know when to hold, and know when to fold them...but it's not doing us any good to always go with armageddon outcomes in a questionable setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I follow somebody from Halifax NS on Instagram ... here is a photo she took today Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's an interesting way to look at it. Your forecast really should bust equally high and low, otherwise you have a baked in forecaster bias. I certainly know some people who never bust on the high side, because they are always out on the limb already. Reason why the best guys go gunho on rare occassions, because big events are....rare. We've had many big events in recent years so it has become second nature lately for anything in the pipeline to be the next big thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 This is easily some of the best wind I've had in years... almost as good as that Oct 2006 wind event. The continuous cloud of blowing snow coming down Meredith neck is sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Looks like the band is turning into more OES cellular down on Cape Cod, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 From fredricton nb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Weather channel was showing gravity waves over PA from the circulation from this beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Back into mod-hvy snow 90 minutes ago as the westernmost band arrived. Visibility 1/4 mile between gusts but tiny flakes so accum is good not great. Probably 3" or so since 7 AM so approaching 18. The wind arrived late morning, with gusts making the house creak - takes 30+ to do that in winter, 5-10 more in summer thanks to all the leaves. Saw winds 50G58 kt at Matinicus Rock last hour. Scrubbing the granite clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, forkyfork said: oh look, the euro was overdone again. 48 hour forecast vs verification Yeah that 12z Saturday run was the last Euro run that really had a big CCB hitting E SNE for Monday morning....you can see on that map with the 850mb isotherms where it would be going to town. Right down the Maine coast and into E MA. Though the Euro wasn't the only model overdoing it...just about all other guidance. The least bullish model on that feature was probably the NAM...it's done relatively well this season inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 if you have periscope, some good stuff from NS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Had to have just had a 40+ mph gust. One of the more impressive ones I can remember recently. It might not be much but ASH is generally not a windy location so it caught my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 That band is producing KLEW 131856Z AUTO 34013G23KT 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC007 M04/M06 A2951 RMK AO2 CIG 007V010 SLP010 P0000 T10391056 FZRANO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 NWS has been reduced to the old days of hand charts and phoned in obs. AWIPS outage nationwide. The only thing we're sending is our radar data, and the only thing we're receiving is our own radar data (not neighbors). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 the elbow of the Cape on up and is making up some decent ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: NWS has been reduced to the old days of hand charts and phoned in obs. AWIPS outage nationwide. The only thing we're sending is our radar data, and the only thing we're receiving is our own radar data (not neighbors). Use wifi and simwips lol. A tree just came down next to our parking lot grazing an employees car, High gust to 51 which is insane for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Oh mama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: the elbow of the Cape on up and making up some decent ground Good to know...I was thinking about driving out to nausette and watching the ocean...we have breaks of sun here in Plymouth, only got a dusting after it went back to snow. I guess I would be driving into snow bands if I headed out on the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Good lord DE ME - def some 3'+ totals in there when this is wrapped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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