psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's going to be pretty tight for your area. You won't have to go far to your north to really see a stark difference. I'm a firm believer that 700'+ elevation areas will probably see at least 2". Below that is where questions will arise. What about 1050 feet about one mile south of PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What did you get from that one. 8" here. One of my favorite storms. i was still living in Cockeysville -- maybe a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What about 1050 feet about one mile south of PA? You'rre looking pretty good. When I lived in PA, the commute home from DC changed quickly in Carroll County. Driving up MD 27 from Westminster to Manchester would see a ~500 ft elevation chance and a quick flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Think the heavy band at 39 would be snow if you were it in. 850s check out and surface temps aren't awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You'rre looking pretty good. When I lived in PA, the commute home from DC changed quickly in Carroll County. Driving up MD 27 from Westminster to Manchester would see a ~500 ft elevation chance and a quick flip to snow. Im 99% sure he was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What about 1050 feet about one mile south of PA? I think you'll do just fine haha. Branch bender up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 ptype maps show rain unless your in fred/NW carroll on this frame but seems an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z vs 18z 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You'rre looking pretty good. When I lived in PA, the commute home from DC changed quickly in Carroll County. Driving up MD 27 from Westminster to Manchester would see a ~500 ft elevation chance and a quick flip to snow. Yea I see a huge difference just to my south commuting to Baltimore. Even just to Westminster sometimes. There was an April snow several years ago where I had 4" and Westminster nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 -___- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think the heavy band at 39 would be snow if you were it in. 850s check out and surface temps aren't awful. I'm thinking not for MBY given the 40 F contour cuts through DC. It's down to 35 by 12z but by then the precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Notable differences on the 18Z NAM - Not nearly as much into SW PA - Colder a bit further south. Better for quite a few. Not sure it is real or how much actually accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Its pretty ugly for anyone south of 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area? I cant remember it ever. I will have to go through my records when I get home tonight. The torch is concerning for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I'm thinking not for MBY given the 40 F contour cuts through DC. It's down to 35 by 12z but by then the precip is gone. Yeah, wasn't really including myself either. Meant the big 30dbz+ arc that the NAM seems to show. Still think its a positive run in the sense that the snow totals seem to be moving ever so slightly south and it was ever so slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The nam quite clearly moved the percip shield further south, but temps are still not up to par with what the Euro showed. Either way, I think its a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area? All the time. We are the masters of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RUMG11 said: The nam quite clearly moved the percip shield further south, but temps are still not up to par with what the Euro showed. Either way, I think its a step in the right direction. Yup. .7 to 1 from 12z to 18z IMBY temps are 1-2 degrees different than 12z. Makes a big difference for a lot of people. Still a decent snow IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z 4km NAM at 39 has a 993mb SLP in SE VA FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Yup. .7 to 1 from 12z to 18z IMBY temps are 1-2 degrees different than 12z. Makes a big difference for a lot of people. Still a decent snow IMBY And still a lot of time for some wiggles. I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area? 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its pretty ugly for anyone south of I cant remember it ever. I will have to go through my records when I get home tonight. The torch is concerning for sure. I do recall a couple of times in 2014 when we had some warm days followed by snow. Just did a quick check on the daily/monthly records on LWX's site and indeed, we had a max temp of 60 and 70 degrees on the 2 days preceding the St. Patrick's Day snow (at DCA). And in January that year, it was in the upper 50s on the 20th, followed by snow on the 21st (though not as significant as the St. Pat's event). ETA: To be sure, it was quite cold in the early part March 2014, followed by some very warm days, then the big snow St. Pat's Day. For the event coming, we haven't exactly had much of any cold prior to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM is a puzzle. The low was slightly se of 12z, precip looks good, but temps around midnight tomorrow night are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: And still a lot of time for some wiggles. I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. I never was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area? Good time to promote the Storm of the Century documentary shared a couple days ago. It did just that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mappy said: I never was. Not you, just everyone in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM is a puzzle. The low was slightly se of 12z, precip looks good, but temps around midnight tomorrow night are warmer. And the 4k nam follows right along with this. Only the snow doesn't reach as far south as 12z, but the track of the low is more favorable. Fight that warm air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nam 3KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM is a puzzle. The low was slightly se of 12z, precip looks good, but temps around midnight tomorrow night are warmer. I was looking at 850mb and couldn't really find the culprit to it. You can see the temps were certainly a touch warmer south of I-70, but as much a few degrees warmer up in NMD and into PA. The wind component actually decreased from the south as well into the area. 925's were a bit colder overall too. Quite odd and not a bad run. That 1-2 degree difference is going to be crazy for many in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: And the 4k nam follows right along with this. Only the snow doesn't reach as far south as 12z, but the track of the low is more favorable. Fight that warm air! Does the nam handle temps particularly well? Perhaps the Euro has a better grasp. The south tick is the kicker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 According to the 3km NAM - I could drive 15 minutes and go from 0 to 7 inches of snow! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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