BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is rolling...where's Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That's something we haven't seen in a long time. Snow bands moving east to west. I could have stopped at "snow" Does anyone believe in the RGEM? Just asking...for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Surface temp at Bwi goes from 36 @ 4am to 27 @ 7am. What a sweet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Does anyone believe in the RGEM? Just asking...for a friend. Not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS coming in a touch less amped in front and a little colder in the mid levels. The bleeding stopped. Or it's just joining consensus. Either way I'm not mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GFS coming in a touch less amped in front and a little colder in the mid levels. The bleeding stopped. Or it's just joining consensus. Either way I'm not mad. Definitely more pressing with the cold at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS basically just joined consensus. Not really a ground breaking run or adding anything new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The differences on the GFS is mostly noise but yes the bleeding in terms of warmer/further north has halted. I have to be to work at 6AM Thurs, I think my best bet is to go to bed at 8PM and wake up and 3AM and watch things transpire. Probably one of the more difficult forecasts of the last few years. Here in East Balt, Ill go 3-4 hours of puking snow with 1-2" to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Rgem us a thing of beauty. Congrats y'all cause if it verifies many of us are in the game Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 This is going to be a long night of 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS basically just joined consensus. Not really a ground breaking run or adding anything new. Pretty atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS still manages to get nothing in DC and a crazy sharp cutoff from S Balt-N Balt even with the slight improvement though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My hotel room has two beds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 So as far as I'm concerned, it's the Euro/RGEM/GGEM/SREF (great!) vs. NAM/hi-res NAM (fair) vs. GFS (dead ratter). I think I'll lean towards the NAM just to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Pretty atrocious So far the worst case is the gfs and the best is the rgem with everything else falling in between. GFS is playing catch-up imho. 18z was just a step towards everything else. You could probably completely toss the run, use all other available guidance, and come up with a very good forecast. I'm fully prepared for being on the outside looking in either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is faster than the euro, probably why the precip shuts off before the cold air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS splitting hairs on who's car topper will be bigger? I'm riding the RGEM. No blending of any other model necessary. Just need that one to be right soooooo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Sadly the RGEM has sorta sucked the past couple events. It's been overdoing totals this year. Has to be right once though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Surface temp at Bwi goes from 36 @ 4am to 27 @ 7am. What a sweet run. YOu don't actually believe the RGEM, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: GFS is faster than the euro, probably why the precip shuts off before the cold air comes in. Faster seems to make sense given the progressive pattern we have been in, but maybe the storm well to our northwest today will slow things down and give the EURO a score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Pretty atrocious pixeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So far the worst case is the gfs and the best is the rgem with everything else falling in between. GFS is playing catch-up imho. 18z was just a step towards everything else. You could probably completely toss the run, use all other available guidance, and come up with a very good forecast. I'm fully prepared for being on the outside looking in either way. What I wouldn't give to shove the RGEM even further south by about 50-100 miles. If the NAM sinks south tonight, we might be on to something...getting in the meso's time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: YOu don't actually believe the RGEM, do you? I believed my wife when she said she loved me, so why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 WSW for the Pa. county 15 miles to my north calls for 4-8". Point and click from LWX for my zone going with 1-3. Not much difference there between some slush and a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: We stopped the bleeding. Hopefully we can start recovery tonight. I really wouldn't be surprised if this thing keeps opening up the percip shield further south as the models come to a convergence on temps. There is still plenty of time and the trend has been our friend these past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more. Keep an eye on that feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more. Keep an eye on that feature Yeah, mentioned that feature when the Euro was coming out and wondered its effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, mentioned that feature when the Euro was coming out and wondered its effects. 18 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more. Keep an eye on that feature Good obs fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Not sure if posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: WSW for the Pa. county 15 miles to my north calls for 4-8". Point and click from LWX for my zone going with 1-3. Not much difference there between some slush and a heavy wet snow. As long as south of the MD line gets a WWA and not a WSW I think LWX will do okay. 1-3 or 2-4 won't be that bad in case of a temp bust. Getting a snow depth significantly over 4" will be almost impossible at low elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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