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Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem IV!

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The kuche map is lol tastic

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

post? 

gaga_2726447b.jpg

Had to do it without the key, but you guys should know the colors by now.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Post for just this event

It's warm verbatim for the coast. What matters is the big changes at h5 that allowed the phase.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Thursday is to far west, Great out in NY and end eyewalls streak on WSW

Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor.

 

Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol once I saw the low position I knew we were cooked here... gotta slide it east now

Lows in York County Maine are not good here

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor.

 

Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters.

No doubt whatever happens will be good for eastern sections, ha.

This run is tossed as it has significant snow falling from ALB to BTV.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor.

 

Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters.

This one has been off and on the models, Looks like it phased both streams this run as the Northern stream had been out ahead of it.

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20 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Wouldn't that require you to pull out of the collective population of Thailand long enough to travel domestically?

Well well well!  Look who it is.  I'll just sleep on your couch since you miss me so much.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well well well!  Look who it is.  I'll just sleep on your couch since you miss me so much.

But we're hardly getting 15" of snow in the verbatim Euro eventuality. Why bother?

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Just now, Zeus said:

But we're hardly getting 15" of snow in the verbatim Euro eventuality. Why bother?

A lot of that falls Sunday/Sunday night in metrowest anyway...pretty good snowstorm outside of 128.

 

Thursday is so far amped on the Euro compared to other guidance, I wouldn't even treat it much more politely than a single GFS ensemble member at this time lead.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of that falls Sunday/Sunday night in metrowest anyway...pretty good snowstorm outside of 128.

 

Thursday is so far amped on the Euro compared to other guidance, I wouldn't even treat it much more politely than a single GFS ensemble member at this time lead.

I'm trying to keep Yosemite Sam off my gorgeous leather couch, here. How about working with me?

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Is that PDIII a couple days early

 

Or is it V Day II a couple of days late?

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Putting all sources of signaling out on the table and splaying them out  ...  seems there are evenly as many pros as cons for the Euro solution.  

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Jimmy's FEB 78' analog finally appears and he's AWOL. 

That's Steve's analog. Jimmy's is always Jan 2005.

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So long as it is being bandied about ... 

not surprising, NCEP analogs for the system next week:

 

610analog.off.gif

I'm really searching to find something wrong with that map, And i see nothing.

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What's intriguing for me about that is the arm of 500 hPa heights threatening to lobe over the top of the subsuming SPV fragment as it comes south. 

in 1978, that was also present but actually somewhat west up closer to Manitoba and NW James Bay region; also different, back then the intense regional subsidence/confluence from top-down produced a mammoth anticyclone that topped around 1050+ ...sprawling across the breadth of the Canadian shield. It had a 1035+ mb arm that hugged NE England ...and so forth that structure et al HUGELY fed back into storm kinematics as the 500 hPa lob came down and captured the lower tropospheric cyclogenesis taking place from the lower OV to off the M/A (also, there was a weak disturbance scooting east of GA that got sucked up into the fray and ingested subtropical theta-e right into the bear's cage).. 

That's getting into particulars.. But the point is, this evolution/comparison to 1978, as was hinted on the 00z operational Euro (well, it's been off and on hinted for days among various GEF and EPS members) and now even more elaborately on the 12z operational Euro lacks the surface high as described above, over Canada. 

However, that's ... correctable (not that we need anything corrected with a solution like this...Jesus).  In fact, the surface PP looks underdone given that Euro's mid/U/A flow structure as it is... We'll see.  

Could all fall apart, of course. But, I will say, both the PNA and NAO really down to the week show a remarkable similarity to what transpired back whence ... not surprising the actual model 500 hPa heights are thusly -

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