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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor.

 

Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters.

No doubt whatever happens will be good for eastern sections, ha.

This run is tossed as it has significant snow falling from ALB to BTV.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor.

 

Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters.

This one has been off and on the models, Looks like it phased both streams this run as the Northern stream had been out ahead of it.

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Just now, Zeus said:

But we're hardly getting 15" of snow in the verbatim Euro eventuality. Why bother?

A lot of that falls Sunday/Sunday night in metrowest anyway...pretty good snowstorm outside of 128.

 

Thursday is so far amped on the Euro compared to other guidance, I wouldn't even treat it much more politely than a single GFS ensemble member at this time lead.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of that falls Sunday/Sunday night in metrowest anyway...pretty good snowstorm outside of 128.

 

Thursday is so far amped on the Euro compared to other guidance, I wouldn't even treat it much more politely than a single GFS ensemble member at this time lead.

I'm trying to keep Yosemite Sam off my gorgeous leather couch, here. How about working with me?

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What's intriguing for me about that is the arm of 500 hPa heights threatening to lobe over the top of the subsuming SPV fragment as it comes south. 

in 1978, that was also present but actually somewhat west up closer to Manitoba and NW James Bay region; also different, back then the intense regional subsidence/confluence from top-down produced a mammoth anticyclone that topped around 1050+ ...sprawling across the breadth of the Canadian shield. It had a 1035+ mb arm that hugged NE England ...and so forth that structure et al HUGELY fed back into storm kinematics as the 500 hPa lob came down and captured the lower tropospheric cyclogenesis taking place from the lower OV to off the M/A (also, there was a weak disturbance scooting east of GA that got sucked up into the fray and ingested subtropical theta-e right into the bear's cage).. 

That's getting into particulars.. But the point is, this evolution/comparison to 1978, as was hinted on the 00z operational Euro (well, it's been off and on hinted for days among various GEF and EPS members) and now even more elaborately on the 12z operational Euro lacks the surface high as described above, over Canada. 

However, that's ... correctable (not that we need anything corrected with a solution like this...Jesus).  In fact, the surface PP looks underdone given that Euro's mid/U/A flow structure as it is... We'll see.  

Could all fall apart, of course. But, I will say, both the PNA and NAO really down to the week show a remarkable similarity to what transpired back whence ... not surprising the actual model 500 hPa heights are thusly -

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

500 hpa was droolworthy IMO.

NBC 30 in CT (Ryan's station) has a first alert weather day for Wed night/Thursday next week, in response to that signal of a potential storm in that time period.  

 

Tip, could this be one of those situations where the truly big events shine a LIL brighter out there in the distance??  Some big signals are evident though for this time frame.

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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

NBC 30 in CT (Ryan's station) has a first alert weather day for Wed night/Thursday next week, in response to that signal of a potential storm in that time period.  

 

Tip, could this be one of those situations where the truly big events shine a LIL brighter out there in the distance??  Some big signals are evident though for this time frame.

Huh? You mean its possible they might have a first alert weather day during that timeframe? I doubt they would schedule a first alert weather day for a day 6 fantasy storm showing up on the euro.

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15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Huh? You mean its possible they might have a first alert weather day during that timeframe? I doubt they would schedule a first alert weather day for a day 6 fantasy storm showing up on the euro.

They did exactly that!  RYAN mentioned it during the 5:30 news. And Brad Field mentioned it again during his segment during the 6:00 news.  Saying there were signs of a system, and there was a first alert weather day for Wed/Thur.  Brad mentioned that one model was showing a big storm, and cited the Euro.  They said they were watching that Wednesday night/Thursday time frame.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Trough continues to outrun the ULL on the GFS. On a quasi-related note, I've heard the GFS has a bias of moving the northern stream too quickly. Anything know if that's actually a thing?

It deff was the case back in the day. I still think it does have a progressive bias so last several winters which has been in a mostly progressive flow, it can score coops. Havent really seen it perform in blocky patterns lately cuz we havent had them lol. So Im interested to see the battle that ensues between it vs euro with this is. Theres no excuses here, textbook upper air charts....either euro does what it does best and sh*ts on the gfs here or we can literally put to rest the idea that it is so superior we ignore the rest. 

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