• Member Statistics

    16,550
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    allwebpost
    Newest Member
    allwebpost
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem IV!

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll sell on a track that far west with very high degree of confidence.

Split the difference between 00z and 12z location and SLP and we'd be golden.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trough continues to outrun the ULL on the GFS. On a quasi-related note, I've heard the GFS has a bias of moving the northern stream too quickly. Anything know if that's actually a thing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoth said:

500 hpa was droolworthy IMO.

NBC 30 in CT (Ryan's station) has a first alert weather day for Wed night/Thursday next week, in response to that signal of a potential storm in that time period.  

 

Tip, could this be one of those situations where the truly big events shine a LIL brighter out there in the distance??  Some big signals are evident though for this time frame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

NBC 30 in CT (Ryan's station) has a first alert weather day for Wed night/Thursday next week, in response to that signal of a potential storm in that time period.  

 

Tip, could this be one of those situations where the truly big events shine a LIL brighter out there in the distance??  Some big signals are evident though for this time frame.

Huh? You mean its possible they might have a first alert weather day during that timeframe? I doubt they would schedule a first alert weather day for a day 6 fantasy storm showing up on the euro.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Huh? You mean its possible they might have a first alert weather day during that timeframe? I doubt they would schedule a first alert weather day for a day 6 fantasy storm showing up on the euro.

They did exactly that!  RYAN mentioned it during the 5:30 news. And Brad Field mentioned it again during his segment during the 6:00 news.  Saying there were signs of a system, and there was a first alert weather day for Wed/Thur.  Brad mentioned that one model was showing a big storm, and cited the Euro.  They said they were watching that Wednesday night/Thursday time frame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They did exactly that!  RYAN mentioned it during the 5:30 news. And Brad Field mentioned it again during his segment during the 6:00 news.  Saying there were signs of a system, and there was a first alert weather day for Wed/Thur.  Brad mentioned that one model was showing a big storm, and cited the Euro.  They said they were watching that Wednesday night/Thursday time frame.

From DT's Fbook page

ALERT !! 12z FRI (Midday) EUROPEAN Model goes WOOOF !!! UPDATE ON FEB 16 POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Trough continues to outrun the ULL on the GFS. On a quasi-related note, I've heard the GFS has a bias of moving the northern stream too quickly. Anything know if that's actually a thing?

It deff was the case back in the day. I still think it does have a progressive bias so last several winters which has been in a mostly progressive flow, it can score coops. Havent really seen it perform in blocky patterns lately cuz we havent had them lol. So Im interested to see the battle that ensues between it vs euro with this is. Theres no excuses here, textbook upper air charts....either euro does what it does best and sh*ts on the gfs here or we can literally put to rest the idea that it is so superior we ignore the rest. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Yankees29 said:

From DT's Fbook page

ALERT !! 12z FRI (Midday) EUROPEAN Model goes WOOOF !!! UPDATE ON FEB 16 POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST 

Stop with that guy. Hes an overrated euro humper and an awfully disrespectful human being who deserves to rot in basement miserably punching away on his keyboard. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It deff was the case back in the day. I still think it does have a progressive bias so last several winters which has been in a mostly progressive flow, it can score coops. Havent really seen it perform in blocky patterns lately cuz we havent had them lol. So Im interested to see the battle that ensues between it vs euro with this is. Theres no excuses here, textbook upper air charts....either euro does what it does best and sh*ts on the gfs here or we can literally put to rest the idea that it is so superior we ignore the rest. 

That idea has been put to rest for years, unless we are talking tropics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

in blocky patterns? when was the last one?

We've had blocking every single year. Just not always in the north atlantic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

We've had blocking every single year. Just not always in the north atlantic.

transient ones yea every now and then. but big nao signal? no you just said it. so you know what im referring to. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

transient ones yea every now and then. but big nao signal? come on, you know what im referring to.  

Blocking doesn't just mean NAO? The pacific has blocking too.

Anyway, a blend is almost always best.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, JC...after Jan 15 massive bust for me and Jan 16 positive NYC bust, I'll be the first one to say its not as superior but it still scores the best overall, wont argue that. My point is, this type of upper air pattern which ee have not seen in a while, will be interesting to see who scores the best. thats all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty strong MJO signal in a good place for awhile.  Should be a fine February overall.  Perhaps a short rough spot near d10-12 but things really look good overall for the rest of the month to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OT but how did it look for the Thursday storm?  Still in play?


Very much so

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I'm guessing Thu must produce here based on Ray's image.

You kind of get an inverted trough there which weenies out the QPF....the storm itself is fairly tame, but definitely still very much there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thursday didn't dig as much because the ridging out west wasn't as impressive...


PNA, EPO, AO all on our side..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I'm guessing Thu must produce here based on Ray's image.

Yes, SLP was further east then the 12z run and not as strong 976 mb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


Very much so

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

I don't know...that snow map that Ray posted, shows no more accumulation from Wednesday to Friday.  That tells me that the wed/Thur deal misses.  At least by the looks of the accumulation map.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know...that snow map that Ray posted, shows no more accumulation from Wednesday to Friday.  That tells me that the wed/Thur deal misses.  At least by the looks of the accumulation map.


Later phase allows it to swing East more. Still in the hunt, just timing a bit off.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.