Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: that's kinda ugly for h5 when translating it to the sfc. the h85 and 2m temp anomalies are just as bad, but the h5 heights always have higher verification scores on the LR ensembles. even with a cold upper pattern you can get a biased warm prog at 2m. i think i saw will mention yesterday that things were looking better at the end of the ens runs. the 6z gefs looked a bit better toward the end of the month too. pattern change begins 2/1 and complete by 2/15? 25th and 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 25th and 1st hopefully....we've had a lot of rockin' febs the last 15 years. i worry that the retrograding vortex gets stalled with time and that we need another week or so to get lower heights established in the aleutians. we'll see. i can pull off snow with many d10 h5 looks so i'm not too concerned unless you're looking for something big. just show me the shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The peaks of the MWV seem to hold onto a snowy solution through Wednesday despite the low tracking well north of Montreal. Does anyone think this is a real possibility? Seems like asking for a lot of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS has light snows for Sat night for SNE...best south of the pike. GGEM has nothing. We'll see what Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoolMike said: The peaks of the MWV seem to hold onto a snowy solution through Wednesday despite the low tracking well north of Montreal. Does anyone think this is a real possibility? Seems like asking for a lot of CAD. It's close for the upslope elevation areas with SE flow. The BL gets a little warm on the models overnight even up there, but a little extra upslope cooling could maybe offset a +1C at H95. Someone like HIE is cooked with SE flow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS has light snows for Sat night for SNE...best south of the pike. GGEM has nothing. We'll see what Euro does. We trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 This has looked like a 1-3" event since yesterday. Unfortunately we lost the ice and we also lost the big snow event the Euro had been printing out. The SE ridge while overall hurting us, helps bump this north enough for a light snowfall to replace the pack eraser the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Looks normal to slightly above normal. Being that it's January in New England, many of us can still retain a pack and see snow chances. That being said, it's a pattern that greatly favors the interior and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks normal to slightly above normal. Being that it's January in New England, many of us can still retain a pack and see snow chances. That being said, it's a pattern that greatly favors the interior and NNE. when? After Monday, looks much above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: It's close for the upslope elevation areas with SE flow. The BL gets a little warm on the models overnight even up there, but a little extra upslope cooling could maybe offset a +1C at H95. Someone like HIE is cooked with SE flow though. Or me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Light snow on the Euro for Sat night...again mainly pike southward. Does look like 1-2" for the southern areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Light snow on the Euro for Sat night...again mainly pike southward. Does look like 1-2" for the southern areas though. Like during Pats game or overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Like during Pats game or overnight During the game...looks like evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Seems like the confluence continues to push southward, any chance the cutter ends up further south or not even being a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Seems like the confluence continues to push southward, any chance the cutter ends up further south or not even being a cutter? What storm are you talking about? The two near term systems...first tonight and second Thursday night....are going west of us. That is a certainty. Anything next week is way too far out to have any confidence in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: What storm are you talking about? The two near term systems...first tonight and second Thursday night....are going west of us. That is a certainty. Anything next week is way too far out to have any confidence in. the one after the wave on Saturday night. Although it seems like it just waits for the high pressure to move out, then cut on through, Tuesdayish time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS and Euro are worlds apart early next week. Euro with a big cut off in plains and GFS with weaker system heading toward NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: when? After Monday, looks much above normal I agree that the guidance is certainly pointing to AN. However, to me this looks like a pattern prone to back-doors and CAD in the areas we'd expect--Maine, NH and CNE. That's why I'm hedging more towards N to slightly AN. After Monday, outside of those areas, it looks quite warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart early next week. Euro with a big cut off in plains and GFS with weaker system heading toward NE. The Euro has a big high pressing in from the Northeast on Wednesday, much stronger than last nights run. This is the time that is also has the NAO going negative and the PNA going positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Next week is an opportunity to dodge a warm bullet. If we can get to 1/25-1/30 I think we have fun for 2 months thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Saturday night could be squashed too. Nothing that exciting when you have WNW flow a 500mb and hoping for a storm to tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Saturday night could be squashed too. Nothing that exciting when you have WNW flow a 500mb and hoping for a storm to tick north. Its an overrunning type event though. Would not be surprised it that ends up north. I've warned the snow hounds here that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its an overrunning type event though. Would not be surprised it that ends up north. I've warned the snow hounds here that too yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its an overrunning type event though. Would not be surprised it that ends up north. I've warned the snow hounds here that too It's better for you guys. Not a fan of the look here...at least near I-90. Better down s coast. But, there is some time for it to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's better for you guys. Not a fan of the look here...at least near I-90. Better down s coast. But, there is some time for it to change. It reminds me a bit of a few of those 1994 events. 1/26/94 especially. I think that one may have mostly missed SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It reminds me a bit of a few of those 1994 events. 1/26/94 especially. I think that one may have mostly missed SNE. You have my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 We yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We yawn That (now) is my sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its an overrunning type event though. Would not be surprised it that ends up north. I've warned the snow hounds here that too don't see this going north, looks like NYC on south event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 if i didn't know any better i'd say the Euro is playing into the age old bias it always had of holding back dynamics too far SW ... the only problem, that was like 10 years and how many upgrades and improvements ago ... and admittedly, i haven't seen a huge amount of that in recent years so I was under the assumption it wasn't as much of a persistent issue with that guidance. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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