WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah Kevin has made up this prolific 1"+ QPF ice storm. GFS now has a nice signal for at least some precip this weekend. Let's hope his holds. Figments of the imagination are a powerful thing....kind of like cold and snow NON-STOP from the beginning of December right through to the end of February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 it seems there are two camps, Kevin and the rest.. wonder who will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, codfishsnowman said: so what is the reason that we cannot get a disturbance to come loaded with moisture out of the gom and hug the coast anymore? is it the placement of the western ridge you guys are always talking about? Mr. Miller says we're not smart enough to get As, only Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Euro still has snow Saturday night...but it's not that impressive....about 1-4" confined mostly to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro still has snow Saturday night...but it's not that impressive....about 1-4" confined mostly to SNE. You mean no ice storm...didn't somebody say the setup is more conducive to an ice storm and not Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro still has snow Saturday night...but it's not that impressive....about 1-4" confined mostly to SNE. Sounds similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You mean no ice storm...didn't somebody say the setup is more conducive to an ice storm and not Snow? It's all dependent upon the timing/evolution of the energy out W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I hope that when he gets his ice storm, somehow it is 35f rain here....I still have anxiety over snowtober 2011 and no power cable and internet for nine days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You mean no ice storm...didn't somebody say the setup is more conducive to an ice storm and not Snow? Put the badminton racquets down and actually look at the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, tamarack said: Mr. Miller says we're not smart enough to get As, only Bs. lolol and where did our old friend Alberta vanish off to ?! She has ditched us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 PNA is positive this weekend into early next week, and the NAO heads towards neutral and the AO is negative. Question does the -AO polar vortex that the models show around day 4-7 that transverses the northern tier of the US, does that system actually dive into the Great Lakes and New England region, or does it stay bottled up in Canada. That will have huge ramifications on the evolution of the northern stream and southern stream dynamics. The southern stream has a cutoff low pressure system that has major timing issues in the ensembles and major operational models. Does the energy emerge into the eastern US while cold air is present and with a negative AO it should be cold in the eastern US along with a +1 standard above deviation for the PNA index above 0. So in that case, the PNA ridge should stand tall and amplify the northern stream system. In that case, where does the trough setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I like this weekend for a snowstorm threat, but does it evolve favorably for SNE or NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The PNA is more favorable towards this weekend system than this past weekend's snowstorm on Saturday, so chances for a more dynamic system depend upon the northern stream system dynamics, is the northern stream dynamic enough to support an East Coast snowstorm? Right now the GFS and EURO have weak energy transverses across the New England region Sunday night, with a sprawling high pressure center over Quebec, Canada. Does this system become a bona fide snowstorm, or just a meager piece of stuffing? I would like to see the models trend towards a stronger piece of northern stream energy and become a solidified system. With the +PNA I would think a more dynamic system is more likely to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Models don't represent the PNA like it should be according to the CPC teleconnections, I like my chances for a good snowstorm somewhere in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Models don't represent the PNA like it should be according to the CPC teleconnections, I like my chances for a good snowstorm somewhere in New England. Almost the case with every mid latitude wave of the cold season. Easy does it James. While we'll be on the cold side of the boundary over the weekend, we have a crap pattern probably until after 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Almost the case with every mid latitude wave of the cold season. Easy does it James. While we'll be on the cold side of the boundary over the weekend, we have a crap pattern probably until after 1/25. PNA becomes positive this weekend Jerry, that is all we need for a nor'easter off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The operational GFS shows a positive PNA this weekend, yet the synoptic scale features don't support that ridge out west in the GFS 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put the badminton racquets down and actually look at the setup You're the one who said it looked like an ice storm set up this morning...not me. So perhaps you need to look at the set up. I was asking the question cuz you said it looks like ice and not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Epstein? Euro shifted south and more in line now with GFS and GGEM, looks good for the NYC area on south. Confluence with the high to the north is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You're the one who said it looked like an ice storm set up this morning...not me. So perhaps you need to look at the set up. I was asking the question cuz you said it looks like ice and not snow. It does. Perfect setup for it as models always overdo confluence this far out. Seems a likely NNE snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Euro shifted south and more in line now with GFS and GGEM, looks good for the NYC area on south. Confluence with the high to the north is strong. There is also a steroidal SE ridge...it could easily come north on future runs...throw in the uncertainty regarding the handling of the southwest energy, and pretty much anyone is in the game for this weekend still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Will this weekend favors SNE snowstorm. PNA is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will this weekend favors SNE snowstorm. PNA is positive. No, it doesn't work like that...not that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will this weekend favors SNE snowstorm. PNA is positive. There is a brief ridge out W but the axis is off the W coast and it gets squashed by the ULL behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 At 240, the Euro has a cutter heading towards the lakes while the GFS has a weak wave heading off the Carolinas. Split the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I'd pay to see this verify, just for the reactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'd pay to see this verify, just for the reactions. Pfft, that's only at day 11, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pfft, that's only at day 11, lock it up. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I don't get it. Am i missing something? That's the 264h panel from today's 12z GEFS p16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I see a potential snowstorm setting up for this weekend. Pattern says a -AO and a +PNA combine for the PV to drop out of Canada. But what happens in the northern stream will dictate what we get this weekend. I don't think the models have a clue of what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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