JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Am i missing something? That's the 264h panel from today's 12z GEFS p16.Yeah...it's a benchmark rainstorm in the middle of January.It's not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Yeah...it's a benchmark rainstorm in the middle of January. It's not a forecast. And I said, "lock it up". You missing my joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 And I said, "lock it up". You missing my joke? Yes I think so. No worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'd pay to see this verify, just for the reactions. wouldn't be anything we haven't seen just about every other winter since 2000 Lets do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I see a potential snowstorm setting up for this weekend. Pattern says a -AO and a +PNA combine for the PV to drop out of Canada. But what happens in the northern stream will dictate what we get this weekend. I don't think the models have a clue of what is going to happen. Link to AO and PNA values 1/13-16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Link to teleconnections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Link to AO and PNA values 1/13-16? It's pretty silly, the GEFS predict near-neutral values for both this weekend. I think technically the AO would be negative, but it is so close to neutral it's irrelevant. The more important part of the pattern over the CONUS is a huge SE ridge with the deep trough in the southwest. This could mean overrunning for us if it works out...but it could easily be nothing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 It's pretty silly, the GEFS predict near-neutral values for both this weekend. I think technically the AO would be negative, but it is so close to neutral it's irrelevant. The more important part of the pattern over the CONUS is a huge SE ridge with the deep trough in the southwest. This could mean overrunning for us if it works out...but it could easily be nothing too.Shredda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty silly, the GEFS predict near-neutral values for both this weekend. I think technically the AO would be negative, but it is so close to neutral it's irrelevant. The more important part of the pattern over the CONUS is a huge SE ridge with the deep trough in the southwest. This could mean overrunning for us if it works out...but it could easily be nothing too. We lose WPO EPO but gain small PNA NAO AO, if it happens it will have to be this weekend because el torcho looms in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 WXbell added Kuchera ratio snow maps, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Joe Fury a pretty good on air CT MET, mentioned this morning that the pattern going forward is very difficult to read...signs of winter going away for a time, but at the same time also signs of it returning with a vengeance perhaps as well...his bottom line was, extremely tough to know for sure which way it will go out past 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Skiing out west? Damn and Colorado is getting smoked too MammothMountain @MammothMountain 2h2 hours ago I think we are going to need a bigger shovel. 8-12 feet and counting. #MammothStories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Link to teleconnections Lol...that link does not support your snowstorm assertion. It may happen but your link doesn't show a move towards much in the way of PNA and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Skiing out west? Damn and Colorado is getting smoked too MammothMountain @MammothMountain 2h2 hours ago I think we are going to need a bigger shovel. 8-12 feet and counting. #MammothStories I skiied there. Was there in March and had a small container of milk to refrigerate in my room overnight-days before hotel room fridges. I figured I'd lay it in the pack. The pack had separated from the building some. Anyway I dropped the milk carton and I kid you not several seconds went by until I heard it hit bottom. 11 feet otg. People ski in bathing suits on 7/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 As much as I love snow I think I'd tire of it pretty quickly if I got that much and had to deal with it into summer. No gracias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...that link does not support your snowstorm assertion. It may happen but your link doesn't show a move towards much in the way of PNA and AO. Its above +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Its above +1. The only teleconnection in your link above a +1 is NAO. Not thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: The only teleconnection in your link above a +1 is NAO. Not thrilled. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: I skiied there. Was there in March and had a small container of milk to refrigerate in my room overnight-days before hotel room fridges. I figured I'd lay it in the pack. The pack had separated from the building some. Anyway I dropped the milk carton and I kid you not several seconds went by until I heard it hit bottom. 11 feet otg. People ski in bathing suits on 7/4. Nice, by the time two weeks are up 20 feet is within reach at Els Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I see a potential snowstorm setting up for this weekend. Pattern says a -AO and a +PNA combine for the PV to drop out of Canada. But what happens in the northern stream will dictate what we get this weekend. I don't think the models have a clue of what is going to happen. Shocking. Models don't have a clue but James does. Possible snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: The only teleconnection in your link above a +1 is NAO. Not thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Goes positive but not until after this weekend when the storm threat is. Essentially a neutral PNA and a neutral AO for this weekend's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Goes positive but not until after this weekend when the storm threat is. Essentially a neutral PNA and a neutral AO for this weekend's threat. yea Leon (watching for a Ray back hand) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Shocking. Models don't have a clue but James does. Possible snowstorm. he has the hot hand with the dawn awakening storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Does he have to shovel all that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: he has the hot hand with the dawn awakening storm Except, no. A broken clock is right twice a day, but only for a infinitesimal length of time. Which is more than a clock that is always 5 minutes fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: WXbell added Kuchera ratio snow maps, cool which models did you find this under? The only one i see is ECMWF, did you find it anywhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: As much as I love snow I think I'd tire of it pretty quickly if I got that much and had to deal with it into summer. No gracias. It goes pretty fast in the lower elevations and the summer is perfect wx by my standards. Mild dry days and cool nights with no bugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: which models did you find this under? The only one i see is ECMWF, did you find it anywhere else? Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: There is also a steroidal SE ridge...it could easily come north on future runs...throw in the uncertainty regarding the handling of the southwest energy, and pretty much anyone is in the game for this weekend still. I'm going to pull an eyewall in this one. We all know it doesn't snow in lower elevation Vermont anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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