Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Man, that is a death vortex right over AK for the better part of the next 10 days...gonna be a torchy period over the CONUS with that setup outside of the west coast. More Sierra cement incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 See all the evil the Death Star conjures up? The force is strong with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know we've jumped the shark when we're debating whether it will be 60 vs 46. As for the ski resorts....they'll be fine as long as they aren't getting blasted with a lot of 46/46 fog and rain. 42/25 won't do much of anything to them...those who have skied in March understand that. I certainly didn't mean for that to happen when I made such an impertinent jest that the pattern looked mild on the operational Euro.. if it's gone to "debate" ...I'd say that's a process of denial ... as though 46 somehow gives something back to winter - oooo kay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: See all the evil the Death Star conjures up? The force is strong with that one. Impressive cold in Asia and Alaska wow. nice to see the Ens break down the vortex. should be a fun last week of Jan heading into Feb. Some positive signs on Ens today for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 again...not sure if anyone's been following... but i have been hammering that the GEFs PNA don't really support such a violent positive complexion to the charts (and I'm not talking about whether it supports a band of RH to keep it cool anyway... ) to begin with. I do still think it is possible that some of this gets corrected if/when the PNA numbers continue to elevate - it may need a threshold of mass forcing then we see that show up more prevalent in x-y-z model. at the same time ... one should be vigil not to count on it arriving too soon, too. when have the models EVER rushed in a pattern change. there's that too. fine art. it is possible that the GEFs end up over-rout and the PNA doesn't get that huge. it's also possible that the PNA, being such a huge domain space, gets positive but the N/A region doesn't benefit due to some idiosyncratic god's deviancy against winter weather enthusiasts - now i like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: See all the evil the Death Star conjures up? The force is strong with that one. Turds and tools were tossed out of the Death Star today. Hopefully we come out if this mess by the end of the month. Until then it's mild days and nights and snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Turds and tools were tossed out of the Death Star today. Hopefully we come out if this mess by the end of the month. Until then it's mild days and nights and snowless Well outside of this weekend....it gets pretty darned cold this weekend before we torch again. That's a classic Scooter arctic high. Too bad we weren't able to get a nice piece of intact energy ejecting out to run into it...like it appeared could be the case 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I'll buy what the euro ensemble is selling. Nice change heading past hr 300 for a more +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Well outside of this weekend....it gets pretty darned cold this weekend before we torch again. That's a classic Scooter arctic high. Too bad we weren't able to get a nice piece of intact energy ejecting out to run into it...like it appeared could be the case 3 days ago. what no epic ice storm this weekend? Color me shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Well outside of this weekend....it gets pretty darned cold this weekend before we torch again. That's a classic Scooter arctic high. Too bad we weren't able to get a nice piece of intact energy ejecting out to run into it...like it appeared could be the case 3 days ago. Yeah this weekend is cold for sure with 20's for highs.. 1980's style with cold and bare ground. I have hope starting the 25th. Maybe that last week we can get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll buy what the euro ensemble is selling. Nice change heading past hr 300 for a more +PNA. Again reminds me of the December evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 That's actually a really good pattern at the end of Euro ensembles...past about Jan 24-25. Hopefully it's onto something. That jacked up PNA ridge shooting into the Yukon has that classic "good El Nino" look that we've seen in some past ones like Feb '03. But before we get ahead of ourselves, I'd want to see some continuity on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's actually a really good pattern at the end of Euro ensembles...past about Jan 24-25. Hopefully it's onto something. That jacked up PNA ridge shooting into the Yukon has that classic "good El Nino" look that we've seen in some past ones like Feb '03. But before we get ahead of ourselves, I'd want to see some continuity on that. Watch us end up with a 1956 March - ...like 70" that month that year... May be a bit of an exaggeration but Harv spun annuls about that sucker. I can't imagine that... Sun angle's tangibly climbing and the days are brighter longer... .... SNOWIER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's actually a really good pattern at the end of Euro ensembles...past about Jan 24-25. Hopefully it's onto something. That jacked up PNA ridge shooting into the Yukon has that classic "good El Nino" look that we've seen in some past ones like Feb '03. But before we get ahead of ourselves, I'd want to see some continuity on that. Yea that split flow pattern and that week, oh man, that is a special week around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 No complaints 11-15 on all the ensembles. EPS looked just peachy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 am I reading in too deeply that it appears no one gives a ratz cartango about the GEFs and use the EPS for ensemble support almost entirely ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: am I reading in too deeply that it appears no one gives a ratz cartango about the GEFs and use the EPS for ensemble support almost entirely ?? Well the EPS have higher skill...but the GEFS do agree somewhat on the change out at the end of their run...they are probably not as aggressive as the EPS, but similar idea: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Yeah Tippy...they all have the same idea more or less. Sometimes I mention the euro ensemble because most of the GEFS stuff is free and available to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: American Airlines took the bait. I received an email yesterday telling me I could switch my flight out of PHL with no additional charge because of this massive impending ice storm that was going to affect the Midwest, mid-atlantic and northeast. A potential ice storm, which is forecast to begin this weekend, may affect your upcoming travel plans. We are currently offering additional flexibility that may allow you to change your travel plans without a fee. Visit aa.com/travelalerts for details on the affected cities and travel dates. You can change your flights on aa.com by retrieving your reservation or by contacting reservations at +1-800-433-7300. Before heading to the airport, be sure to check your flight status on the American Airlines app or at aa.com, and sign up for flight status notifications. Where are you headed? It seems that parts of the Midwest and lower Plains are still under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's actually a really good pattern at the end of Euro ensembles...past about Jan 24-25. Hopefully it's onto something. That jacked up PNA ridge shooting into the Yukon has that classic "good El Nino" look that we've seen in some past ones like Feb '03. But before we get ahead of ourselves, I'd want to see some continuity on that. Interesting time for a flip...hmmm..nah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Again reminds me of the December evolution Wasn't December negative PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 38 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: American Airlines took the bait. I received an email yesterday telling me I could switch my flight out of PHL with no additional charge because of this massive impending ice storm that was going to affect the Midwest, mid-atlantic and northeast. A potential ice storm, which is forecast to begin this weekend, may affect your upcoming travel plans. We are currently offering additional flexibility that may allow you to change your travel plans without a fee. Visit aa.com/travelalerts for details on the affected cities and travel dates. You can change your flights on aa.com by retrieving your reservation or by contacting reservations at +1-800-433-7300. Before heading to the airport, be sure to check your flight status on the American Airlines app or at aa.com, and sign up for flight status notifications. Yup there sure is gonna be one. KC / Steelers game may be hugely impacted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Yeah this is way better than the December flip imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Interesting time for a flip...hmmm..nah lol gosh looking back at some pictures moving snow piles, January 28, 2015/February 15th, 2015 is there a slim chance it could happen again? lol as i look at everything around me melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 In years past when Cali gets hammered like they have been, have we ever gotten good snows later down the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In years past when Cali gets hammered like they have been, have we ever gotten good snows later down the line? One of the their biggest snow years on record was 2010-2011.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In years past when Cali gets hammered like they have been, have we ever gotten good snows later down the line? 2011 … Cali got hit hard in December, then it switched off there and we got hit hard Jan in to early Feb (something like 48" Jan 7–Feb 2, which seemed like a lot before 2015; cold, too, BOS didn't go above 40 for a month, below 42 Jan 2–Feb 14). Then the switch flipped back and we got pretty warm and dry while California snowed for two months straight (Squaw topped out at 810" at 8000 ft, 400 of which fell Feb 14 to April 7, so about 50"/week during that time; their 9-day total right now is a paltry 153" up that high, and that includes some rain, above 10,000 feet in the Sierra is probably sitting close to 20 feet). Anyway, based on that data point, this pattern can switch around. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In years past when Cali gets hammered like they have been, have we ever gotten good snows later down the line? 1977-78 was one of their stormiest years on record. I lived it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Thanks for the responses. I thought I recalled 2011 being good for them then setting up nicely here. I'm sure there are some ratters in there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: 1977-78 was one of their stormiest years on record. I lived it there. Nothing good came of that winter here...oh...wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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