Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 You essentially have one crappy model showing a snowstorm 5 days out and a bunch of other models not. I'd be inclined to not go all in with the Deep South snowstorm scenario at this time, if I had a big audience to inform. I'd probably toss it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Like the gfs 18z and 12z Para continuity. Also I'd pay attn to ukmet for hints as much as nam, gfs moving toward euro, ukmet might be showing us euro moving toward american suite. Talking about big seperation we need at hr 84ish neighborhood. Gotta be middle road, ground here. If that's case should be a pretty good event for most of board. Course I'd like to be measuring with a yardstick(gfs,para) for once as opposed to a ruler but beggars can't choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think some have said the UKMET had done well in the past with these kind of setups. Maybe need to pay attention to it more, too, and I think it has been consistently showing a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You essentially have one crappy model showing a snowstorm 5 days out and a bunch of other models not. I'd be inclined to not go all in with the Deep South snowstorm scenario at this time, if I had a big audience to inform. I'd probably toss it too. Ukmet is showing a nice storm as well, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: Ukmet is showing a nice storm as well, IMO. I thought it was fairly light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Would love to see things go towards the Euro a bit more tonight honestly, at least in terms of the suppression. I mean how many times have we seen a perfect storm at this time frame and it miss to the north? So I'll take a little suppression and hope for the inevitable NW and wetter trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Ukmet is showing a nice storm as well, IMO. I would take it too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I thought it was fairly light? We only have the 5h and surface pressure map to go off of. IMO, based on that map there would be a widespread 2 to 4 inch swath of snow through AL,GA,SC,NC. Edit to add: I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukmet had 6+ inch totals for place like Macon, Augusta, Columbia. They would probably jackpot with that surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Compare to the Euro at the same time, which still shows some snow for people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEFS shows the slight shift of the northern stream but not as much as the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: We only have the 5h and surface pressure map to go off of. IMO, based on that map there would be a widespread 2 to 4 inch swath of snow through AL,GA,SC,NC. I'd put money on the ukmet over all others at this point. It's been knocking the socks off on this event so far, atleast 5h rock steady and hasn't wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I would have no problem with the models coming to consensus on a relatively light event with a gulf tracking low on tonights runs. That still leaves 4 and half days for the inevitable wetter/northwest trend. I can think of many nuisance/light events that trended wetter in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEFS give some validity to the op with a more SE solution. Jackpots RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Weird question... Are my posts being deleted? I hit the refresh button and their gone?? Only one that I can see. Let's stay on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thanks Burrel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Pack is great at bookmarking runs and going back checking for trends. Maybe he can see ukmet and euro and see if they are trending toward am suite at hour 72. I know how am is going today cause we pbp and watch the trends on it like a hawk since it had snow apocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I've wondered about this today. Would there be a tendency towards 'climo' thinking (meaning "that just can't happen 'round here") or to still hug the euro anyway. I have seen times when the Euro showed a bomb and it was tossed due to the lack of run-to-run consistency. However, this is a little different. This time around we have two distinct camps and it all comes down to stream interaction. This is a toss-up. It could go either way. Truth be known, I believe there will be some interaction, but the degree of interaction is still unknown. The high resolution models will offer a better solution once we get inside their range. If someone were to hold a gun to my head, at this point I would have to say we will get a moderate snow event somewhere between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 We might not like what we see if the Euro leaves that ULL behind...it may keep it stronger and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Would love to see things go towards the Euro a bit more tonight honestly, at least in terms of the suppression. I mean how many times have we seen a perfect storm at this time frame and it miss to the north? So I'll take a little suppression and hope for the inevitable NW and wetter trend. more times than not that's for sure. fwiw, here is the 12z canadian geps. as you can see....all over the place. 120 hour hour 132 hour 120 hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 gfs ens members looks great, some big dogs and nearly all show some minor accums for much of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Next up 0z NAM. Comes out about 8:35pm ET correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 We might not like what we see if the Euro leaves that ULL behind...it may keep it stronger and further north. We got nothing if that happens. It's either overrunning from OK to PA or light stuff over us if it were to dig way south. Need a separate Pac wave for something more meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 May need to move this to another thread, but can someone tell me what happened to Burger? Did he change his name? He always did a great job with the pbp the last couple of years. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18Z GFS has a low of 4 at KATL, looks like this would be because of snow cover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I like the fact that the UKMet moved in a good direction today so it's not the GFS completely on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Next up 0z NAM. Comes out about 8:35pm ET correct? Around that time, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs ens members looks great, some big dogs and nearly all show some minor accums for much of the board. Yeah, holding strong and the mean actually went up a tad. Great to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'll take ens member #3 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, yotaman said: I'll take ens member #1 or #3 please. E10 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, griteater said: I like the fact that the UKMet moved in a good direction today so it's not the GFS completely on its own Navgem too...it just weakens and progresses the low so it still misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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