CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, malak05 said: It's doesn't matter tonight the Euro bends the knee With the 18z GFS 'kink' Matt pointed out earlier and the 0z NAM trend Euro might be headed to sweep the leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 EE rule? lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Agreed. See it at 54. Looks squished like a pancake. Lord have mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: With the 18z GFS 'kink' Matt pointed out earlier and the 0z NAM trend Euro might be headed to sweep the leg. Get em a bodybag, Johnny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If everything goes completely to the Euro and there's no meeting in the middle, then there's no reason to ever look at the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Sorry but this look is garbage. Toss the entire run. The energy won't be elongated like that and the heights are just flat. Wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If the NAM is the start of a trend towards the euro we now have the winner of the model war! Good news is that we wont have to alienate our loved ones or loose sleep anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Well it is the NAM at 66hrs Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: Sorry but this look is garbage. Toss the entire run. The energy won't be elongated like that and the heights are just flat. Wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looks like a noodle...what a disaster. You're right...it just doesn't look realistic. Let's just wait for the global models tonight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Well it is the NAM at 66hrs Jon Yes but it's got the Euro support. That's makes it more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Don't just assume the euro is gonna look like it does now exactly over the next 5 days. And really all models. Think we see a ukie middle ground and decent event, espeacilly by SE standards come Saturday. Hang tight everyone still got ebbs and flows to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Well it is the NAM we are talking about. I'm not sure how well it does with waves coming ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jon said: Sorry but this look is garbage. Toss the entire run. The energy won't be elongated like that and the heights are just flat. Wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It looks like a spear right through the heart of weenies everywhere. Seriously through, I'd toss that in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: It looks like a spear right through the heart of weenies everywhere. Seriously through, I'd toss that in a second. That is a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The key item I wanted to see from the NAM tonight is the perturbations of the NS and the wave in the first 48hrs which were somewhat telling imho as Wow pointed out. That stuff at 66 is likely trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Para NAM works....all sorts of NAM's, we can find one that works for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: That is a strung out mess. We're on the very fringe of the NAM's wheelhouse. I'll set this one aside for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: The key item I wanted to see from the NAM tonight is the perturbations of the NS and the wave in the first 48hrs which were somewhat telling imho as Wow pointed out. That stuff at 66 is likely trash. Yep, agreed. The later part of the NAM run is most likely noise, but the first 48h is cause for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The " crazy" nam run a minute ago, doesn't look that far off from the 12z, the weird " spear" aspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I am still learning about various models. So my understanding is that the NAM is like the GFS except it covers a smaller areas (North America only) at a higher spatial resolution. I am assuming that a higher resolution model will be more accurate than a lower resolution model. So why do we use a lower-resolution global model to predict the weather over North America when we have access to a higher resolution regional model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: We're on the very fringe of the NAM's wheelhouse. I'll set this one aside for now. The 84 NAM is like the 384 hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I will say this...the NAM is doing an absolutely AWFUL job right now in the short term. Does it mean anything? Heck IDK.... the 6 hour rain totals.. (0z to 6z) so about another 3 hours worth...it has me only getting maybe .30" of rain at most....I am at .85" since 6pm or so.... storm total just over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Para NAM works....all sorts of NAM's, we can find one that works for us. Alright Pack! Back in the game! That does look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am still learning about various models. So my understanding is that the NAM is like the GFS except it covers a smaller areas (North America only) at a higher spatial resolution. I am assuming that a higher resolution model will be more accurate than a lower resolution model. So why do we use a lower-resolution global model to predict the weather over North America when we have access to a higher resolution regional model? Higher resolution models only run in the short term(12-84 hours) and are mainly looked at to see mesoscale features(position of a locally heavy band of rain or snow for example). NAM only goes out to 84 hours whereas the global models(GFS, Euro, Ukie, CMC) go out to the mid or long range(84-384 hours). As this event gets closer, assuming we still have the event, the NAM and other shorter ranged models will be analyzed more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not making up excuses but I think once the wavery comes ashore it will shake up the models even more. Hopefully they all get a clear look at how this thing pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I will say this...the NAM is doing an absolutely AWFUL job right now in the short term. Does it mean anything? Heck IDK.... the 6 hour rain totals.. (0z to 6z) so about another 3 hours worth...it has me only getting maybe .30" of rain at most....I am at .85" since 6pm or so.... storm total just over 6" Interesting Chris because I always figured (generally anyway) the NAM had a bias to amp up precip totals too much sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The NAM has been much better in the last year. It still has some horrible moments, but its generally more trustworthy now than it was 18 month or 2 years ago. Its interesting the new parallel NAM though looks exactly like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Higher resolution models only run in the short term(12-84 hours). NAM only goes out to 84 hours whereas the global models(GFS, Euro, Ukie, CMC) go out to the mid or long range(84-384 hours). As this event gets closer, assuming we still have the event, the NAM and other shorter ranged models will be analyzed more. Why are higher resolution models not run out as far? Is it simply a mater of computational resources or are higher res models more unstable as time goes on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM has been much better in the last year. It still has some horrible moments, but its generally more trustworthy now than it was 18 month or 2 years ago. Its interesting the new parallel NAM though looks exactly like the GFS. To be honest I have mostly seen the NAM the subject of derision. So is it more accurate within its domain (short term, North America) than the associated global model (GFS) over the same time frame/spatial extent, or not. If not, what is the point of even having it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, cbmclean said: Why are higher resolution models not run out as far? Is it simply a mater of computational resources or are higher res models more unstable as time goes on? Computational resources and budget, plus it's not exactly easy to predict mesoscale features 5 days out, so I guess you can say it's both. Higher resolution models need very accurate data and uses that data to simulate atmospheric features in the very short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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