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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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SteveVa

SteveVa

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Looks like a good start to winter. Would much rather have things working in our favor in December than to have to hope and pray for a favorable pattern as winter rolls bye. It's going to be a great winter. 1979 redux! Let's reel it in 

1979/1980 winter had 42" here in ORF. If that were to happen again I would be fine with not seeing snow ever again lol

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

1979/1980 winter had 42" here in ORF. If that were to happen again I would be fine with not seeing snow ever again lol

Yep, I remember it well. That event on March the 2nd. was the coldest I have ever seen snow fall here. Not very often outside of the mountains that you see heavy snow with temps in the single digits and winds gusting to 40 mph. That was a true blizzard for a lot of NC and eastern Virginia.

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, griteater said: 

CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2017  
 
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE  
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. DUE TO LOW SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH  
THAT THIS PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND RESULTS IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES  
TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING WEEK-2. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX BECOMES MORE  
NEGATIVE WITH TIME AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PROMINENT OVER THE  
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING EARLY DECEMBER.  
 
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE  
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OF  
MORE THAN 200 METERS AT VANCOUVER ISLAND (50N/130W). THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK  
DURING WEEK-2 IS BASED ON TELECONNECTIONS UPON THIS LARGE 500-HPA HEIGHT  
ANOMALY CENTER ALONG WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. A  
LARGE INCREASE IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY  
TO OCCUR EARLY IN WEEK-2. THEREFORE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE  
STATISTICAL TOOLS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL.

I don't understand this strange language that they are speaking.  Everybody knows that the AO/NAO doesn't go negative.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Howdy folks. I see a lot of links to the GFS, but no Euro maps. Maybe you weren't aware of the FREE Euro maps. Top link is the operational and the bottom one is the ensembles.  Enjoy!

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php

Thanks for the links. Definitely a cold look starting at day 7.

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CaryWx

CaryWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro was extremely cold also!! Time to break out the bubbly! This pattern may be Crystall worthy!! :)

Yes but gives me the yin yang.  Hate that this is about 4 weeks too early yet happy it's not mid-January and we're still chasing an elusive "pattern flip" on the models like years before.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm somewhat excited about the cold, but  with no moisture, it's no bueno.  Where's the moisture?  I want cold and stormy, not cold and dry.

TW
 

Well to me it's still not that cold.  EURO ENS which looks great at h5 is still only about maybe 5-7 degrees below normal (dark green below)? So for my neck of the woods we're talking lows in the upper 20s and highs in the mid 40s.  That's a pretty normal winter day.  Not true cold you need for a snow event, unless it comes at the dead of night.  

Models seem to be getting cooler, and cooler as we move into December so that's great.  It's great too be at least in the ballpark this year for at least something maybe to track.  But I'm not seeing REAL cold that threatens the southeast with a storm.  Mid Atlantic and NE, sure I'd be more excited up there. 

If blank, model image not available

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Well to me it's still not that cold.  EURO ENS which looks great at h5 is still only about maybe 5-7 degrees below normal (dark green below)? So for my neck of the woods we're talking lows in the upper 20s and highs in the mid 40s.  That's a pretty normal winter day.  Not true cold you need for a snow event, unless it comes at the dead of night.  

Models seem to be getting cooler, and cooler as we move into December so that's great.  It's great too be at least in the ballpark this year for at least something maybe to track.  But I'm not seeing REAL cold that threatens the southeast with a storm.  Mid Atlantic and NE, sure I'd be more excited up there. 

If blank, model image not available

Check dew points.  If there's precipitation, it would likely be cooler.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm somewhat excited about the cold, but  with no moisture, it's no bueno.  Where's the moisture?  I want cold and stormy, not cold and dry.

TW

Have you ever been told that you are hard to please?

:lmao: Just kidding!

If the progs are right, the nice thing is that the baroclinic zone where the cold and warm unite will be pushed south along the gulf coast, with late fall / early winter warm gulf waters to boot.  So a weak ripple in the flow could be enough to ignite precip in the deep south.  There are a spattering of ensemble members that move lows out of the gulf and off the SE coast.  Others have lows that sharpen and cut between cold outbreaks.  Others that are dry. 

I would want to keep a colder look in the progs though

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH has mentioned the pattern change; and some much needed rain to bring the change/front through:

Thereafter, both GFS and ECMWF show a highly amplified trough
developing over the Midwest down through the Mississippi Valley,
which will move east through the week and bring a notable pattern
(and airmass) change to our area for the second half of next week.
With increasing southerly flow ahead of this trough, we`ll see
better rain chances with this front late Tuesday, compared to recent
weaker fronts that have moved through our area.
 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Check dew points.  If there's precipitation, it would likely be cooler.

Good point.  My point was simply though that it's not really crazy cold.  It's getting us just marginally cold, in the ballpark of something to track.    

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ That temp anomaly is in Celsius too

Yeah you're right! Oops, how many degrees difference is 6 C in Fahrenheit? 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Good point.  My point was simply though that it's not really crazy cold.  It's getting us just marginally cold, in the ballpark of something to track.    

Yeah you're right! Oops, how many degrees difference is 6 C in Fahrenheit? 

Little less then double for F, give or take.  The EPS is really cold.

 

eps_z500a_noram_240.png

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