SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Aww, CLT's first slushy fantasy storm of the year! Yay! I wonder if it's because of the trough axis being further west/sharper? Ironically there's like zero greenland blocking in that storm on the op. It's there on the ensembles though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I can't even get a fantasy snow! That's how pathetic mby is! Pattern looks ok for a couple of below average days, no winter storms tho. By day 10, it'll probably be mid 60s in reality! I'm 56 degrees below avg with all my fantasy cold shots from this year already! You have made the winter gods mad. No snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, SnowNiner said: Aww, CLT's first slushy fantasy storm of the year! Yay! I wonder if it's because of the trough axis being further west/sharper? Ironically there's like zero greenland blocking in that storm on the op. It's there on the ensembles though. We're losing the Greenland red colors run by run Niner. Gotta say, the Canadian Ensemble was always the weakest with the Greenland block...mentioned it in a comparison a few days ago. On the flip side, the western ridging is gaining strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: All of the models are locked in on building and maintaining a massive west coast ridge starting around Day 7. We didn't have a look this good on the models all of last winter. They are indeed...with a weaker Greenland block look, we end up with the Hudson Bay vortex pattern you mentioned the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, griteater said: We're losing the Greenland red colors run by run Niner. Gotta say, the Canadian Ensemble was always the weakest with the Greenland block...mentioned it in a comparison a few days ago. On the flip side, the western ridging is gaining strength Don't you say it, don't do it. My -NAO is real!!! You cant take it away. Crap. It's still on the ensembles, so I'm going to hang on to it with a death ninja grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, griteater said: They are indeed...with a weaker Greenland block look, we end up with the Hudson Bay vortex pattern you mentioned the other day So tired of seeing that Atlantic ridge...will have to ride the -EPO/AO combo. That ridge is such an anti snow signal for atleast Raleigh. But will take gladly take some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 January 88 was a + NAO, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 That storm showing up on the Euro was a bonus. The important thing is the stage is being set for some possible fun in December and things still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: So tired of seeing that Atlantic ridge...will have to ride the -EPO/AO combo. That ridge is such an anti snow signal for atleast Raleigh. But will take gladly take some sleet. We're the sleet capital. Hard to get pure snow in our region. But at least we tend to be in the game for some type of frozen/freezing precip during most SE winter storms. I've posted this before, but as far as I can tell this is a world record (at least for what has been officially recorded) I was in Goldsboro and would have loved to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 This period coming up looks so close to the last couple of weeks of Jan/14. Had a couple of small events affect the area and a big one just missed Raleigh south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: We're the sleet capital. Hard to get pure snow in our region. But at least we tend to be in the game for some type of frozen/freezing precip during most SE winter storms. I've posted this before, but as far as I can tell this is a world record (at least for what has been officially recorded) I was in Goldsboro and would have loved to see it. Hard to get pure snow without -NAO. Dec 2010 was the last event I remember that was all snow, stout -NAO. But, I certainly don't mind the snow/sleet events either...beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: This period coming up looks so close to the last couple of weeks of Jan/14. Had a couple of small events affect the area and a big one just missed Raleigh south/east. Yeah, Jan '14 is a good match. One issue with the model analog stuff is that they have to match a date that is close to the forecast time (say within a few weeks either side of the forecast time). So, the current model forecast analogs won't pick up on January dates that have a similar pattern match. Because of this, the analogs miss on other winter dates that would otherwise be a good match for assessing potential temperature / precip anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah, Jan '14 is a good match. One issue with the model analog stuff is that they have to match a date that is close to the forecast time (say within a few weeks either side of the forecast time). So, the current model forecast analogs won't pick up on January dates that have a similar pattern match. Because of this, the analogs miss on other winter dates that would otherwise be a good match for assessing potential temperature / precip anomalies. I was wondering why CPC day 8/11 wasn't picking up on 14'. Good to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, FallsLake said: We're the sleet capital. Hard to get pure snow in our region. But at least we tend to be in the game for some type of frozen/freezing precip during most SE winter storms. I've posted this before, but as far as I can tell this is a world record (at least for what has been officially recorded) I was in Goldsboro and would have loved to see it. I got bulls eyed for that one. One of the strangest weather events I've witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Hard to get pure snow without -NAO. Dec 2010 was the last event I remember that was all snow, stout -NAO. But, I certainly don't mind the snow/sleet events either...beggars can't be choosers. That's what worries me about this current situation. I keep hearing that the upcoming -NAO is backing off. Makes me think a miller A type storm could form running inland; putting central and eastern NC out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: I got bulls eyed for that one. One of the strangest weather events I've witnessed. Do you have any pictures? I've searched the web but can't find any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That's what worries me about this current situation. I keep hearing that the upcoming -NAO is backing off. Makes me think a miller A type storm could form running inland; putting central and eastern NC out of the game. -NAO/-AO certainly helps, but we've had big storms without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Do you have any pictures? I've searched the web but can't find any. I don't but I think my buddy does. We were serious water skiers at the time and took advantage of the deep sleet to do some winter training. He may still have some pics. It was weird,nothing on the rooftops but gutters were full and mini drifts were everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: _NAO/_AO certainly helps, but we've had big storms without it. Miller A storms have giving us some great storms but they have also hurt us with the sharp cut-off of precip types. Miller B / strong CAD is what we want to see to get more folks "in the game". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louise Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: I got bulls eyed for that one. One of the strangest weather events I've witnessed. I remember the BIG one in 2000. Over a foot of beautiful snow!!! Would love another one of those!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, frazdaddy said: I don't but I think my buddy does. We were serious water skiers at the time and took advantage of the deep sleet to do some winter training. He may still have some pics. It was weird,nothing on the rooftops but gutters were full and mini drifts were everywhere. That would be great. I would love to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, Louise said: I remember the BIG one in 2000. Over a foot of beautiful snow!!! Would love another one of those!! Greetings fellow Pittsboroinan, I got that bullseye too. Those were good times! Oh look, it's time for the "Happy hour" GFS run. Let the fun and games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 46 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That's what worries me about this current situation. I keep hearing that the upcoming -NAO is backing off. Makes me think a miller A type storm could form running inland; putting central and eastern NC out of the game. Worries me too, maybe just disappointed. We've seen what an -epo can do in 14 and 15. Yes we can get winter weather but without a good block along with a 50/50 low for confluence to lock in the cold high pressure we get sleeted or we just get rain. Block slows the flow and keeps the cad high in place. It's just better for sure, but sure we can live without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 18z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS = Montana gets cold at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 A beautiful trough out west with a pretty strong SER... Good thing it is in the long range which changes 4 times a day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS = ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Canada goes into the freezer which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: The 300+ long range is warm-ish Yeah the wicked awesome huge epo Alaska ridge goes poof.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 30 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah the wicked awesome huge epo Alaska ridge goes poof.... That's a wicked pissah! Maybe it'll get cold in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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