packbacker Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 2014 winter sucked You had more snow that winter then us Raleigh folks! You will curse all the shoveling you have to do this winter :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: Hopefully the Pac is modeled correct with the stout -AO. If the PV lobe drops in where the GEFS/EPS show it that could result in quite the suppressed storm track like ‘14. And now that I jinxed us... Yeah, 2014 had a real good storm in February IIRC. Other than that it was pretty quiet. We are certainly in the game with a stout -EPO/+PNA like 2014. However I'd love to mix it up and up our chances with a good -NAO. I really want that to make an appearance for a few weeks this winter to see what we can get. I'd love to have true blocking, that helps keep our CAD high pressures from scooting off the east coast leaving us. Hopefully something closer to the GEFS is what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Usually we see the good stuff get moved down the road on the models. This time it's bringing it sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 12z GFS continues to advertise a change to a more favorable pattern. While not without concerns and certainly not perfect, there are a couple of more episodes of favorable blocking setting up, as well as the evolution to having a PV set up shop in eastern/SE Canada. At 168, you can see the ridge off the west cost, the SW cutoff as well as a PV developing/dropping SE due to the 50/50 off the east coast, pumping up the ridge over Greenland: The process continues at 204, with the west coast ridge growing and the block over Greenland now established. The 50/50 is diminishing but the PV is expanding and building in. The storm track shifts south: Now at D10, we have a block off and onto the west coast connecting with a stout Greenland block. This forces the PV south and the storm track south. Nice early winter pattern for sure: At 324, the west coast ridge has increased in amplitude as the Greenland block has eroded. However, renewed ridging into Greenland is inviting another PV development/expansion phase, as the storm track remains south: And lastly, at 384, a sprawling PV envelops almost all of Canada. We have sort of an omega block, centered over AK and ridging continues into Greenland: This doesn't appear to be an icebox pattern for the SE or one that is highly supportive of an early season winter storm. But if it verifies, it will be miles ahead of anything we've seen lately. The blocking is certainly good to see, as is the development of some really cold air on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Definitely a cold look by mid December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 GEFS hell bent on a stout NAO...nice low heights east of NF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Looks meh , at best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS hell bent on a stout NAO...nice low heights east of NF. That looks nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I won’t post the GEFS mean snow map but yikes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 12z GFS continues to advertise a change to a more favorable pattern. While not without concerns and certainly not perfect, there are a couple of more episodes of favorable blocking setting up, as well as the evolution to having a PV set up shop in eastern/SE Canada This doesn't appear to be an icebox pattern for the SE or one that is highly supportive of an early season winter storm. But if it verifies, it will be miles ahead of anything we've seen lately. The blocking is certainly good to see, as is the development of some really cold air on our side of the globe. Nice analysis CR! Very nice run to keep us cool. I hope that GFS/GEFS' -NAO is right. Very nice blocking it looks like. I agree though that it's nothing that yells "it's going to snow in December". It just doesn't seem like it's very cold, but again it's December in the Southeast. If the look keeps up into January, will you take down your snowshields?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 32 minutes ago, packbacker said: I won’t post the GEFS mean snow map but yikes.... Awesome! We don't need Siberia cold, we need just cold enough! I'll take a nice snow at 30 degrees and 850s and 925s at -2c or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Awesome! We don't need Siberia cold, we need just cold enough! I'll take a nice snow at 30 degrees and 850s and 925s at -2c or so! You'll take 44 and rain, and like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Analog temperatures from the 12z GFS run for days 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: You'll take 44 and rain, and like it! I'm in stage 2 drought almost, I will take it! If I'm at 44 and rain, you'll be at 36 and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 51 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Nice analysis CR! Very nice run to keep us cool. I hope that GFS/GEFS' -NAO is right. Very nice blocking it looks like. I agree though that it's nothing that yells "it's going to snow in December". It just doesn't seem like it's very cold, but again it's December in the Southeast. If the look keeps up into January, will you take down your snowshields?! Thank you sir. Every time the snow shields come down early, the snow never does. Therefore, we're taking a new approach this year. Snow shields will remain activated until penetrated by snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 ECMXYGDRNOWF with a non-hate-able look by D10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 GEFS trend loop for Dec 6-11. Pac low anomaly and W Canada / AK ridging couplet getting stronger. Location of these features is nearly ideal. Make the ridge taller with storm waves undercutting into California and it's even better. Greenland ridging trend is slightly weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 ^^ That little low off the NE coast was near the Gulf in the previous frame. So presumably, we'd finally get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Last one....the GEM ensemble mean for 384. Nice mean for a tall +PNA ridge and ridging into Greenland. PV has been relocated to eastern Canada with arctic flow out of Siberia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thank you sir. Every time the snow shields come down early, the snow never does. Therefore, we're taking a new approach this year. Snow shields will remain activated until penetrated by snowfall. He said penetrated, huh, huh, huh, ehh, huh, huh huh, penetrated! Can't wait for my week of upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s! Block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Last one....the GEM ensemble mean for 384. Nice mean for a tall +PNA ridge and ridging into Greenland. PV has been relocated to eastern Canada with arctic flow out of Siberia: Please post the Pioneer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Please post the Pioneer! No problem, buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 34 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: No problem, buddy! Nice! Thanks! What's up with that Rain Cold guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Nice! Thanks! What's up with that Rain Cold guy? He sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: He sux. He's no Brick or Webber, but he aight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 From CPC for the day 8-14 range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 12z GFS looks awesome.... If it's sniffing out the overall broad spectrum pattern somewhat close to reality then then we'll have some early winter storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2017 THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. DUE TO LOW SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND RESULTS IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING WEEK-2. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX BECOMES MORE NEGATIVE WITH TIME AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PROMINENT OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING EARLY DECEMBER. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OF MORE THAN 200 METERS AT VANCOUVER ISLAND (50N/130W). THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DURING WEEK-2 IS BASED ON TELECONNECTIONS UPON THIS LARGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ALONG WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. A LARGE INCREASE IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY IN WEEK-2. THEREFORE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE STATISTICAL TOOLS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Usually we see the good stuff get moved down the road on the models. This time it's bringing it sooner. Beautiful W based -NAO too. Doesn’t get much prettier than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Looks like a good start to winter. Would much rather have things working in our favor in December than to have to hope and pray for a favorable pattern as winter rolls bye. It's going to be a great winter. 1979 redux! Let's reel it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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