FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just had a chance to look at the 0z Euro. There could be a chance of a couple of clippers affecting us in the 8-10 day period. Clippers usually stay just north of us but can push more south if the trough is deep enough. They're also hard to predict; sometimes going to the day of the event before details are known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: EURO ensembles still look good in the long range all the way through mid December. Even has my precious ridging over Greenland and the Davis Straight. Overnight Euro Ens doesn't retrograde the western ridge as much as the GFS Ens which keeps the cold trough axis a little more on top of us...it would be a little colder than the GFS Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Just had a chance to look at the 0z Euro. There could be a chance of a couple of clippers affecting us in the 8-10 day period. Clippers usually stay just north of us but can push more south if the trough is deep enough. They're also hard to predict; sometimes going to the day of the event before details are known. Clippers suck! Hope that's not our only chance for snow out of this set up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Clippers suck! Hope that's not our only chance for snow out of this set up! I agree. I was only looking at days 8-10. Hopefully somebody gets a light event (or flurries) and then a big dog shows up days 10-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Pattern showing on the models for December looks great, and they are in agreement. Cold with lots of energy flying around. Looks like a good setup for winter storms. Of course, you can have the best players on the field and still end up not getting the win. Just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Wading thru ensemble members can be a painful task without a good user interface. Luckily, College of Dupage has an excellent interface. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ > GEFS tab > Precipitation Products (on the left) > Ensemble Precip Type 12 of the 20 GFS Ens members from the 06z run have at least one wintry storm for our region. #11 has the best one. #15 has 3 systems. 5 of the 20 have systems that cut with rain, but no wintry. Only 2 are dry throughout (after the initial polar front). But it shows the pattern of cold/cool highs coming down with storm chances. Could be a progression of cool>warm>storm....or if timing is good, could be storm with cold. Euro Ens look would be a little colder, but with less storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I would not worry about 500 mb fluctuations in models past Day 7. The pattern is solid for cold. 1-2 day mild interludes are normal within a cold pattern. Short waves are also forecast within the broad trough over the East. Always hope, but I would not watch any single wave until it's inside Day 5. Trouble (for extreme cold) is the source region. Alaska is not cold enough. AK temps are where I'd expect them after the Lower 48 turns cold, not in the lead-up. Sure it's -60 in Siberia, but we would need classic/retro cross polar flow. Could happen, but still, Alaska... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Clippers suck! Hope that's not our only chance for snow out of this set up! I'll take upslope snowfall all day long bro. Sucks for you but great for us in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z GFS day 7/8: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 From Pivotalweather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I thought the 12z GFS was a fun run. Definitely a lot of potential. The above snow totals I posted above should be suspect, in which we'll need the cold to chase and overtake the precip (we all know how that fairs). There is a fantasy storm way out on day 16. looking at (just for fun) most would think that only extreme north NC northward would benefit, but dew points would be in the single digits and teens with CAD before the precip started. And the CAD would stay strong. So overall, it's still a great pattern for something to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z GFS is about as good of a run we can expect anytime of year, more or less early december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 38 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z GFS day 7/8: That's a good amount of snow for my area. It will change, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, Huriken said: 40 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z GFS day 7/8: That's a good amount of snow for my area. It will change, of course... I would take my 4-5" of snow and congratulate you on your foot any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I would take my 4-5" of snow and congratulate you on your foot any day. Hopefully we can all score something with this pattern change. Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Correct answer. This is just an astonishing image. Who knows if it will verify, but good grief. That's an Omega into Western Canada, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: From Pivotalweather: I could use that shifted east by about 250 miles. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 The storm for next weekend is still showing up on the models. I think the Euro and now GFS have both showed it. Even if it's only an inch or two, I'll take that for a storm so soon in December. The pattern setting up looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: I would take my 4-5" of snow sleet & rain and congratulate you on your foot any day. ftfy to take into account the past few years of winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: 12z GFS is about as good of a run we can expect anytime of year, more or less early december. Very true. Getting this look or even a glimpse this look is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: ftfy to take into account the past few years of winter storms. Lol...that's about right man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Look at how suppressed the low is on the euro youd almost think there could be more cold air on the 8th then whats shown by the gfs seems to me odds for a low tracking off the east coast after the fropa are increasing maybe we'll have one of those meet in the middle kind of situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Always have to look out for the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 check out the JMA whose got the german? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: check out the JMA whose got the german? Is the Brazillian in range yet!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 GFS Ens members continue to show a smorgasbord of wintry threats intermingled with rainy ones in the extended range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Euro and Ukie look ok at day 6 for some widespread rain,.75'' to 1.5'' over most areas.Let's see if this one can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro and Ukie look ok at day 6 for some widespread rain,.75'' to 1.5'' over most areas.Let's see if this one can hold. Wrong thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is the Brazillian in range yet!? I like French models but that’s just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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