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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The members that are further East look to be faster and headed towards a Carolina landfall.

3 clusters...one cluster is like the GFS/GEFS, slides east of NC coast.  The 2nd cluster is just like the Op and there is a third cluster stalls back in northern FL.  This is all day 5 or so.

Biggest cluster is like the Op.

Edit:  Not a single member get's north of HAT.  

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The members that are further East look to be faster and headed towards a Carolina landfall.

Seems like increased speed = increased latitude, and vice-versa.  The faster he moves, the larger the area of the US east coast that sees some impact.  Conversely, the slower he moves, the more likely he slingshots eastward.

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Eye complete clouded over on Matthew.  

I actually think the core's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba will have more of an impact than southwestern Haiti, but probably not enough to weaken it below Cat 3. That peninsula was mountainous, but narrow. The eyewall has held together very well. But even though Matthew's core will only cross Cuba's eastern most tip, a mountainous region extends over 200 km west from the point of landfall and that in itself will likely disrupt low level northerly and westerly inflow to the bands and eyewall.

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8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I actually think the core's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba will have more of an impact than southwestern Haiti, but probably not enough to weaken it below Cat 3. That peninsula was mountainous, but narrow. The eyewall has held together very well. But even though Matthew's core will only cross Cuba's eastern most tip, a mountainous region extends over 200 km west from the point of landfall and that in itself will likely disrupt low level northerly and westerly inflow to the bands and eyewall.

The area of land that Matthew is crossing is so narrow that the Eastern half of the eyewall will likely remain offshore the entire time. I don't see it doing anything but halting what was a re-intensification process up until an hour or two ago.

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NAM critics turn away...

Latest NAM keeps the 'capture' solution alive.   Speeds up the trough getting here quicker, while GFS is slower with it's arrival. 

Both generally keep the strength of the trough similar....just the NAM gets it here quicker.  Which would mean a lot more rain for the north-east / mid-atlantic.

18z NAM vs 12z GFS

o3eJjx.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

21z NHC update appears to track into NC close to SC border and close to Cape Cod (from forecast advisory, discussion not posted yet) ... intensity forecasts are clearly conservative next 72h, nothing over cat-3. 

Probably waiting to see how much (if at all) the eastern tip of Cuba disrupts the CoC.  Barring any significant erosion of his core though, I don't see anything there to stop him from intensifying significantly.  Next few hours are crucial intensity-wise.

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From the disc the 12z Euro was an important reason for shifting the cone West. Ultimately it all comes down to modelling the ridge/trough correctly plus factoring in Nicole, as well as the speed of Matthew (which the models have not been very good at generally to this point). from an EM point of view. This kind of track is a nightmare. such a large portion of the coast may or may not have major impacts subject to minor deviations in the path.

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10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

21z NHC update appears to track into NC close to SC border and close to Cape Cod (from forecast advisory, discussion not posted yet) ... intensity forecasts are clearly conservative next 72h, nothing over cat-3. 

Actually they keep it at a cat 4 the entire time. Winds for cat 4 start at 130.

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41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I actually think the core's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba will have more of an impact than southwestern Haiti, but probably not enough to weaken it below Cat 3. That peninsula was mountainous, but narrow. The eyewall has held together very well. But even though Matthew's core will only cross Cuba's eastern most tip, a mountainous region extends over 200 km west from the point of landfall and that in itself will likely disrupt low level northerly and westerly inflow to the bands and eyewall.

The eye crossed right over a 7700ft peak on Haiti. The highest mountain in the part of Cuba it will interact with is only 3900ft.

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A long post, but relevant IMO.  The 5 pm update is out and the NHC, as expected, is taking a very conservative approach to responding to the overwhelming model shift to the out to sea solution and only moved the track from about 90 miles off the NJ coast to about 160 miles off the NJ coast, instead of the 250+ miles off/away from the NJ coast seen in all of the major models (which mostly don't even bring it to our latitude at all). I'm sure they want to see the runs tonight continue with the out to sea solution before biting on it, but they didn't say that. All they said is this, which is not very helpful, IMO - no mention of the major model shift at days 4-5 to the out to sea solution.  

The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041506.shtml?


However, again, IMO, the NWS-Philly said it very well as per below, i.e., actually discussing the divergent model output this afternoon. If we get the OTS solution, there would likely be minimal rain for the tailgates and game and maybe none. For now, let's see what happens with the storm as it goes through the Bahamas and possibly hits or scrapes FL and then SC/NC, before likely going out to sea, unless we see an historic reversal of the models inside of 4 days out, which is extraordinarily unlikely, as we're now much closer to the event and the error bars are shrinking considerably, making giant model moves far less likely than they were 2 days ago.  Not saying it's impossible, but my point is the NHC didn't even discuss the models at all within their 5 day range - this isn't a case of not speculating beyond their 5-day cutoff.  

Saturday and Sunday...
There continues to be high forecast uncertainty regarding the
track of Hurricane Matthew after it reaches the coastal Carolinas
on Saturday. There appears to be two distinct scenarios: 1)
Matthew tracks more northward Saturday night- Sunday. This western
edge of the track would occur if the upstream mid latitude trough
starts to catches up with the TC, allowing these systems to phase
and track closer to the coast. This track would produce the
greatest impacts to our region, including the potential for strong
winds near the coast, freshwater flooding and significant storm
surge. 2) Matthew tracks more eastward Saturday night-Sunday. A
sharper hook out to sea would occur if the interaction between the
TC and upstream trough is minimal. This track would equate to much
lesser impacts across the forecast area. Limited impacts would
mainly be confined to the coast, including enhanced rip currents,
minor beach erosion and possibly some tidal flooding.

The optimistic news is the 12Z model guidance has generally trended
toward the latter solution, indicating a sharper turn out to sea and
less impacts across the area. The 12Z ECMWF shift was dramatic,
keeping Matthew suppressed south of Charleston, SC. However, the
models have yet to show run-to-run consistency and there
continues to be moderate spread in the GEFS, so we cannot rule out
any of these two scenarios or somewhere in between.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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The eye crossed right over a 7700ft peak on Haiti. The highest mountain in the part of Cuba it will interact with is only 3900ft.

Yes, the peninsula is essentially an E-W oriented mountain range with a higher peak of elevation. However, like I said, it was a narrow feature geographically speaking. Over Cuba, part of the eye wall, immediate close bands and inflow in the western circulation will cross over a much wider and larger region of mountainous terrain and landmass regardless if the individual higher peaks aren't as high as the sw peninsula of Haiti. Perhaps it doesn't disrupt enough to cause weakening, but I won't be surprised if it does knock it down a category tonight. If the core holds together well, it could easily reintensify significantly entering the Bahamas tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

the coast guard should move some Buoy floaters (or whatever their called)  into the path of Matt.   We need as much data as possible as he's moving in.  

We were basically relying on 1 buoy as it was about to hit Haiti.

As it gets closer to FL, I imagine they'll be doing near constant recon, as per usual when a cane gets close to the US mainland. 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

As it gets closer to FL, I imagine they'll be doing near constant recon, as per usual when a cane gets close to the US mainland. 

 

Budgets may not be what people want them to be... models can use work... etc.

 

But if there is one thing about the US... when the necessity is there we have the resources to move heaven and earth in an attempt better understand a situation and advise our elected officials.

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