RU848789 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 New NHC track only nudges the track to the west a bit - my guess is they want to see another suite of model runs confirming the unusual retrograde forecast before pulling the trigger on major track changes. Since the worst conditions still wouldn't be until Sunday night/Monday am, I guess their thinking is there's still time to adjust west if the trend continues. They did extend the TS warnings up to Sandy Hook. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093924.shtml?5day#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: New NHC track only nudges the track to the east a bit - my guess is they want to see another suite of model runs confirming the unusual retrograde forecast before pulling the trigger on major track changes. Since the worst conditions still wouldn't be until Sunday night/Monday am, I guess their thinking is there's still time to adjust west if the trend continues. They did extend the TS warnings up to Sandy Hook. I believe you meant to say they nudged the track to the WEST a bit? But it also shows the first sign of a curve back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Would Pelham Bay or City Island be a good spot to chase to Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Would Pelham Bay or City Island be a good spot to chase to Sunday? Better off on the south facing shores of brooklyn and queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looks like the NHC has some trust in Euro's idea. I think the beaches are going to get a lot more damage than most believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like the NHC has some trust in Euro's idea. I think the beaches are going to get a lot more damage than most believe. I think I just seen that Belmar already has dozers on the beach pushing up mountains of sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Would Pelham Bay or City Island be a good spot to chase to Sunday? You can come to my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like the NHC has some trust in Euro's idea. I think the beaches are going to get a lot more damage than most believe. NHC may just end up tossing this to the NWS offices again as with Sandy claiming its a just a Noreaster at that point. I'm not so sure how easy that is going to be though given they have put warnings out for NJ already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: I think I just seen that Belmar already has dozers on the beach pushing up mountains of sand. I gues they have to try, but that will be washed away in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What are the chances of Hermine heading towards/into New England with storm/hurricane conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC may just end up tossing this to the NWS offices again as with Sandy claiming its a just a Noreaster at that point. I'm not so sure how easy that is going to be though given they have put warnings out for NJ already. they already stated they will not be doing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Epicnova said: What are the chances of Hermine heading towards/into New England with storm/hurricane conditions? very low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Epicnova said: What are the chances of Hermine heading towards/into New England with storm/hurricane conditions? Not much unless you are on the Cape/Islands/South coast. The blocking high will prevent it from moving that far north. Models in pretty good agreement on that piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC may just end up tossing this to the NWS offices again as with Sandy claiming its a just a Noreaster at that point. I'm not so sure how easy that is going to be though given they have put warnings out for NJ already. The NHC's discussion suggested otherwise: After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.[/i] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 15 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Would Pelham Bay or City Island be a good spot to chase to Sunday? NE winds will push water out of there. I think if you want to see coastal flooding, head towards Little Neck Bay area or western Nassau County like Port Washington or Glen Cove area like Tappen Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: I think I just seen that Belmar already has dozers on the beach pushing up mountains of sand. I saw that too. They're draining the lakes too, I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, pstar3182 said: I saw that too. They're draining the lakes too, I heard. Wow they really are taking lot more precautions this time around... Good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 this convection popped up out of nowhere...as part of the eye of Hermine started moving over the Atlantic. convection is just north of the Eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not much unless you are on the Cape/Islands/South coast. The blocking high will prevent it from moving that far north. Models in pretty good agreement on that piece. Well I live in SE MA. Could I see something like that here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Epicnova said: Well I live in SE MA. Could I see something like that here? The closer to the south coast the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, ag3 said: NE winds will push water out of there. I think if you want to see coastal flooding, head towards Little Neck Bay area or western Nassau County like Port Washington or Glen Cove area like Tappen Beach. Im in Port Wash. I fell this will be worse (flooding) than Sandy was. Not that Sandy was all that bad for us in terms of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, dmillz25 said: The closer to the south coast the better Hopefully living east of providence is close enough. I really want to experience a true hurricane. The closest I got to one was Irene in 2011 (it was worse than Sandy in my area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Epicnova said: Hopefully living east of providence is close enough. I really want to experience a true hurricane. The closest I got to one was Irene in 2011 (it was worse than Sandy in my area) This wont be your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 13 minutes ago, ag3 said: NE winds will push water out of there. I think if you want to see coastal flooding, head towards Little Neck Bay area or western Nassau County like Port Washington or Glen Cove area like Tappen Beach. You're severely understating the risk to the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You can come to my area 28 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Would Pelham Bay or City Island be a good spot to chase to Sunday? I'm in Throggs neck right near the bridge . if the storm surge is anything above 4-5 feet . it's going to be very interesting around here . Anybody remember the storm surge in the western part of the LI Sound during sandy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 the gfs is going to be NW of the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 18z sunday hermine is about 200 miles east of delmarva and heavy rain is brushing the coast 998mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the gfs is going to be NW of the 12z run indeed. at 18 hours, it's slightly more west already. like 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 37 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I believe you meant to say they nudged the track to the WEST a bit? But it also shows the first sign of a curve back towards the coast. D'oh! Yeah, fixed it, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, ag3 said: NE winds will push water out of there. I think if you want to see coastal flooding, head towards Little Neck Bay area or western Nassau County like Port Washington or Glen Cove area like Tappen Beach. 5-10' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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