pstar3182 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Was Sandy a cat 4 or 5? What would you consider that level of damage to be? I actually went down to Seaside the day after the storm and helped rescue people. I was there and I am still here. It was devastating. Using a john boat to move around and get drinkable water to people was an impossible chore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Was Sandy a cat 4 or 5? What would you consider that level of damage to be? I actually went down to Seaside the day after the storm and helped rescue people. Sandy was also moving at a high rate of speed perpendicular to the coast. Hermine will stall and slowly sink toward the coast. That setup doesn't push nearly as much water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Yeah Bluewave, keep that in mind please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Need the Euro solution to come another 50-75 miles further North. I don't think that's going to happen at this point. Where do you live exactly?? Because no one wants to see this damage so you can suck it! Lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, winterwx21 said: It was horrible damage, but not destroyed. Destroyed is what south Florida looked like after hurricane Andrew. But I guess it's just a matter of opinion. When I was down there helping with the rescue efforts we couldn't get down one street because a house was blocking the way. I saw houses piled ontop of each other like an accordion. The houses may have not been leveled, but it was complete destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Was Sandy a cat 4 or 5? What would you consider that level of damage to be? I actually went down to Seaside the day after the storm and helped rescue people. The surge during Sandy was in part so bad because the storm was so large and moved a tremendous amount of water. The track in from the SE also made it worse, and it was high tide. The surge in Long Beach where I live was about 8 feet and storm tide was 10-11 feet. 4-6 feet is bad but it wouldn't be Sandy. Maybe more like the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or Dec 1992. The beaches have also been built back up with extra reinforcements in many areas. South of LBI, Sandy wasn't so bad because they were south of the center and had offshore wind. Those areas haven't been tested as much and are in worse trouble IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Sandy was also moving at a high rate of speed perpendicular to the coast. Hermine will stall and slowly sink toward the coast. That setup doesn't push nearly as much water In my opinion the push of water will be even greater because of the long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, jm1220 said: The surge during Sandy was in part so bad because the storm was so large and moved a tremendous amount of water. The track in from the SE also made it worse, and it was high tide. The surge in Long Beach where I live was about 8 feet and storm tide was 10-11 feet. 4-6 feet is bad but it wouldn't be Sandy. Maybe more like the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or Dec 1992. The beaches have also been built back up with extra reinforcements in many areas. South of LBI, Sandy wasn't so bad because they were south of the center and had offshore wind. Those areas haven't been tested as much and are in worse trouble IMO. Have you seen Hermine? It's not the size of Sandy but it's large in terms of TC size. Secondly, the Euro retrogrades this right into the coast with a sharp hook in nearly the same location that Sandy landfalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Keep in mind we have other models that would be bad but not like the Euro. If Hermine stays a good bit offshore the winds would largely be NE so the surge threat wouldn't be so bad. And the 60-70+ mph wind would be largely offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: In my opinion the push of water will be even greater because of the long duration. That's the biggest problem with this. This will not be Sandy in terms of power but you never want a storm spinning for days nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 West trend is real today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: In my opinion the push of water will be even greater because of the long duration. That opinion is based on zero science. Sure, it will be long duration, but a large system moving at a high rate of speed will push far more water into the coast in the intial surge, and that is where the majority of damage would occur. Its simple physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Hello, been lurking this forum for about 2 days now. Literally just moved here less than a year ago, I did not live here when Sandy occured but heard it was really bad. Would have for a sandy-esque storm to occur again. How is this looking for the shore? Should I be concerned Not many people are aware here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Have you seen Hermine? It's not the size of Sandy but it's large in terms of TC size. Secondly, the Euro retrogrades this right into the coast with a sharp hook in nearly the same location that Sandy landfalled. Sandy was over the ocean pushing water for days! Hermine goes off at VA Beach. Not the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's the biggest problem with this. This will not be Sandy in terms of power but you never want a storm spinning for days nearby. If it actually rotates into SE NJ, it would be very very bad for NJ and the NYC area/Long Island again. I'm really hoping this doesn't happen. I'd like to think those areas are better prepared this time than in 2012, but I'd like to not find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's the biggest problem with this. This will not be Sandy in terms of power but you never want a storm spinning for days nearby. 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: West trend is real today Bingo. Everything has moved a bit west. Would think if the Euro's solution is correct, other guidance will move towards it. The one silver lining from a damage point of view is that if the system does move inland, it would turn winds north and west for areas to the south of its landfall (and push water back out) The Gfs with its offshore solution just piles water in for 2-3 days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, robPAwx said: Hello, been lurking this forum for about 2 days now. Literally just moved here less than a year ago, I did not live here when Sandy occured but heard it was really bad. Would have for a sandy-esque storm to occur again. How is this looking for the shore? Should I be concerned Not many people are aware here. I wouldn't expect this to be like Sandy but the NJ coast should be quite concerned for at least severe beach erosion and flooding in vulnerable areas. You might be asked to evacuate if the trends closer to the coast continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, robPAwx said: Hello, been lurking this forum for about 2 days now. Literally just moved here less than a year ago, I did not live here when Sandy occured but heard it was really bad. Would have for a sandy-esque storm to occur again. How is this looking for the shore? Should I be concerned Not many people are aware here. Yes.. you should be very concerned at this point, especially at your location. Be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: West trend is real today Why the sudden shift west today? Is it slower storm/captured by trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The surge during Sandy was in part so bad because the storm was so large and moved a tremendous amount of water. The track in from the SE also made it worse, and it was high tide. The surge in Long Beach where I live was about 8 feet and storm tide was 10-11 feet. 4-6 feet is bad but it wouldn't be Sandy. Maybe more like the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or Dec 1992. The beaches have also been built back up with extra reinforcements in many areas. South of LBI, Sandy wasn't so bad because they were south of the center and had offshore wind. Those areas haven't been tested as much and are in worse trouble IMO. there also was a full moon which i think adds feet to a high tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: there also was a full moon which i think adds feet to a high tide We have a new moon this time would be the same in terms of tides being enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: there also was a full moon which i think adds feet to a high tide we are at a new moon, so same issue really (higher than normal high tides) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I'm in coastal Monmouth county. Nobody here seems to be worried about this storm.. I'm about 300 yards from the sandy hook bay. Had 10 ft water during sandy.. hope this isn't even half that. What's everyone thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Sandy was also moving at a high rate of speed perpendicular to the coast. Hermine will stall and slowly sink toward the coast. That setup doesn't push nearly as much water it was moving fast and just as it got to the coast sandy just stopped and stayed there for a few hours became extra tropical expanded it's wind field..stayed at the coast until high tide came.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Franklin0529 said: I'm in coastal Monmouth county. Nobody here seems to be worried about this storm.. I'm about 300 yards from the sandy hook bay. Had 10 ft water during sandy.. hope this isn't even half that. What's everyone thoughts i was surprised the mayor had a press conference.. about this storm..it shows you the city is taking this storm seriously... mind you it was before the latest models came out and showed the storm could be even worse than predicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm in coastal Monmouth county. Nobody here seems to be worried about this storm.. I'm about 300 yards from the sandy hook bay. Had 10 ft water during sandy.. hope this isn't even half that. What's everyone thoughts Same here in Seaside. Everyone is acting as if nothing will happen. Christie needs to make an announcement or host a meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Obviously, the shift in models, especially for the usually reliable Euro, is big news. The Euro, as depicted, would probably be worse than Irene for the coast, although still not Sandy-esque at the coast (was stronger and the angle of approach was the worst possible). Inland would be much less of an issue than Sandy, since this storm is definitely not a threat to go inland, like Sandy did. I'd say let's see what the NHC has to say and let's see if the storm's movement today and tonight's models confirm any westward shift, as there is still time to issue any evacuations Saturday morning if truly dangerous conditions are expected for Sunday night into Monday morning (closest approach). When I said, before, that I wouldn't issue mandatory evacuations, I clearly said "if the NHC track holds" - clearly if the new Euro holds and the NHC responds to it, it's a new ballgame. That's why we pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, robPAwx said: Same here in Seaside. Everyone is acting as if nothing will happen. Christie needs to make an announcement or host a meeting. Same Rob, just off N street, Bay side. I've been talking with Mathis and the OEM guys. They're shocked Trenton has not called it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1894 had two storms that crossed Florida, lost strength and regained it off the Jersey coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: it was moving fast and just as it got to the coast sandy just stopped and stayed there for a few hours became extra tropical expanded it's wind field..stayed at the coast until high tide came.. It absolutely did not. It picked up forward momentum. See the below loop. What you are recalling is the center issue where folks thought it changed. It did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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