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May 2016 Discussion/Observations


dmillz25

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NYC up to 3.59 on the spring so far. It will be interesting to see how we finish.

There hasn't been a top ten driest season in NYC since winter 2001-2002

while there were 9 top ten wettest since then.

 

10 driest springs in NYC

 

3.59....2016...so far

4.95....1885

5.06....1935

6.20....1887

6.39....1995

6.60....1905

6.81....1926

6.97....1965

7.01....1959

7.04....1963

7.05....1950

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I wonder if this cooler pattern relative to what we experienced from May 2015 through March 2016 is

indicative of a pattern break from the extreme warmth of that stretch? Not that we are entering a below

normal temperature regime, but possibly a reprieve from the extreme warm months of +5 to +6 or more.

We'll see if we are entering a less warm phase relative to the warmest May through March in record.

 

May 2015....+6.1

Sep 2015.....+6.5

Nov 2015.....+5.1

Dec 2015.....+13.3

Mar 2016.....+6.4

Ironic that last year May was when the heat really began to crank, and now it's when it is backing off. Of course there were exceptions in between, like June 2015 for example.

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does anyone have insight in to when this stretch of absolutely hideous weather will end? Im looking for sunny and 70's in the day and mid 50's at night. right now its going down to the mid 40's at night and i still have to run my freaking heat.. IN MAY

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does anyone have insight in to when this stretch of absolutely hideous weather will end? Im looking for sunny and 70's in the day and mid 50's at night. right now its going down to the mid 40's at night and i still have to run my freaking heat.. IN MAY

May 10th ish.

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Have managed to start 1pm the past two days and cut some lawns..looks like today we will just plow through and cut lawns as soon as this next batch ends around 9...when you get weeks like this you just throw caution to the wind. We get week like this every year...last year it was the first week of June

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Have managed to start 1pm the past two days and cut some lawns..looks like today we will just plow through and cut lawns as soon as this next batch ends around 9...when you get weeks like this you just throw caution to the wind. We get week like this every year...last year it was the first week of June

Going to cut it high on first pass to take a little off the top. As you said it is what it is

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Going to cut it high on first pass to take a little off the top. As you said it is what it is

 

 

the good news is that the dryness of April and the relative cool weather has kept growth at a minimum. We havent seen that ridiculous growth yet although I fear its coming next week when the sun comes out. Noticed last week many lawns were showing the grass seed so thats usually an indication that the growth spurt is coming. Should be okay this week. I am okay in cutting in wet lawns, the probem is pesky mist and drizzle which complicates things

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Highest astronomical tides of the year coming up later this week with the new moon.

The prolonged easterly flow is pushing up tides on top of this. We could see widespread

minor to perhaps locally borderline moderate coastal flooding with the evening high

tide cycle especially by Friday.

 

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From OKX AFD:

 

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

15 TO 20 KT E/ENE WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
WESTERN LONG ISLAND/NYC WHERE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE
FORECAST...SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE FOR
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS LIKELY WILL JUST
BEING REACHED ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY
HARBOR...EXCEPT FOR THE MANHATTAN/N QUEENS/BRONX COASTS...DURING
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 1/2 TO 1 FT
ARE LIKELY IN THOSE TWO AREAS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS E LONG ISLAND
SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...IT APPEARS DEPARTURES
WILL RUN AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF A FT BELOW LEVELS NEEDED TO
REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS THIS EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
AROUND 1/4-1/2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS EVENING...WHILE TIDAL
DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE SAME LEVELS AS THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS.

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GFS MOS lost the warmth on the 10th, while the 11th is only +2. The average high hits 70 on the 11th.

Its somewhat back again on 12z. But agree that there really isn't any 'heat' out there. Just getting to normal or a bit above this time of year is low 70s.  GFS just always seem to be pushing the warmth off by a day each run. It just keeps getting stuck out at 150hrs +. I need no lower than 50 at night and 65-70 during the day so I can get the vegetables in the ground. Was looking to do it this weekend, but it will be last minute decision. Will probably still have to wait another week. 

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Travis Ave on Staten Island always floods when there is a very high tide...they have to close it from Victory Blvd to Richmond Ave when that happens...The walking and bicycle path along shore road in Brooklyn usually floods as waves crash over the sea wall during very high tides...

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Its somewhat back again on 12z. But agree that there really isn't any 'heat' out there. Just getting to normal or a bit above this time of year is low 70s.  GFS just always seem to be pushing the warmth off by a day each run. It just keeps getting stuck out at 150hrs +. I need no lower than 50 at night and 65-70 during the day so I can get the vegetables in the ground. Was looking to do it this weekend, but it will be last minute decision. Will probably still have to wait another week. 

 

It's looking like another battle between the WAR and the strong blocking to the north for next week.

NJ could get warm sectored while Long Island stays cooler like we saw last week.

 

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