Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

[ORH_wxman]

Not much to say right now...we had spectacular snow advance in October (hopefully in a year of weak ENSO, it can be a larger influence)...we have had conflicting seasonal model outputs, and we are still too far away from the start of winter (about 3-4 weeks) to really have any medium/long range guidance skillfully hint at the pattern.

 

We are seeing some pattern change in the North Pacific in the meantime which will help cool off Canada next week,  but back here, we will still be fairly mild overall, with some bouts of cold mixed in....in the longer term, there seems to be a lot of variability in the N PAC and there is no sign of something "locking in". Hopefully we will see signs of a favorable regime locking in by late month and early December when we can actually cash in on such patterns.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, Scott...two questions....best site obtain seasonal snowfall tallies for cities, and and site to make charts from November 1 until present, for instance....as opposed to waiting until the month concludes and utilizing the Utah reanalysis tool...thanks.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will, Scott...two questions....best site obtain seasonal snowfall tallies for cities, and and site to make charts from November 1 until present, for instance....as opposed to waiting until the month concludes and utilizing the Utah reanalysis tool...thanks.

If they are first order sites, the NWS is probably the best place to get it for the current winter. The daily climate report will have the seasonal total in there and month-to-date total in there. Just scroll down to "snowfall" and it has all those totals. Over on the right it has climo for that date. Like if you click on ORH, it shows that climo is to have 0.7" so far on the season...but we've had just a trace so far.

Here is NWS BOX's:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

NWS OKX (New York):

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

 

NWS Mt. Holly (Philly):

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=phi

 

NWS LWX (Washington DC):

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

 

 

If you want monthly totals for years past, I like to use the climod2 site:

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu/

 

In the "product" section go to "monthly summarized data", in the "options" section choose "snowfall" as your variable and probably allow for like 5 missing days, and then type in your location in "station/area"...you can choose from a selection of nearby coops/airports that comes up when you type in the location.

 

 

 

 

[codfishsnowman]

even I am not worried....yet

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Worth looking into ......they said "better than some winter".  I'll have to compare.  I do like the studs for extra gripping though.

 

We’ve run Nokian WR, Nokian WR G2, and now Nokian WR G3 on all our AWD Subarus for close to a decade – they rock.  As noted in the video, these are all-weather tires, which is an entirely different class from all-season tires.  The all-weathers are basically a category between all seasons and snows.  They’re certainly biased toward handling snow and ice well, with the softer rubber, siping, tread pattern, etc. of snows (and they do attain the Mountain Snowflake symbol performance level), but they don’t go quite to the extremes that are taken with full blown snows so that you still have good dry road performance and can run them all year.  They’re not going to outclass full blown Nokian snows (especially studded ones if you encounter actual ice) when it comes to winter driving, but Nokian definitely knows they’re stuff with respect to winter tires, so it’s not surprising to hear that the all-weathers could beat out some snow tires.

 

For us, the practicality of the all-weathers comes from the fact that if we were swapping out summers and snows, we’d have to have the snows on roughly eight months of the year anyway.  Even if it’s not snowing to travel-constraining depths in the valleys eight months of the year, the higher elevations are a different story, and if you’re heading up for turns you’re often going to be there when the storms are hitting.  Our storms from a couple weeks back were a perfect example.  Many areas up in the Bolton Valley Village were unplowed, and I had to drive through 6 to 8 inches of dense snow when I was up there.  It’s very typical to get a storm or two that accumulates to varying degrees in October, so if you’re going to be in the higher elevations you’d generally want to put snows on by the 1^st of the month anyway.

[weathafella]

Losing 2 winter months (October and November) stings.

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, Hitman said:

I totally agree with you on the snow tires.  I swear by them. they make bigger difference than awd.  but I have heard and read that these new "all weather" tires, as opposed to "all season" tires, perform really well in the snow.  I dont know anyone with personal experience with them though. 

Hi

[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Losing 2 winter months (October and November) stings.

Your foolish(as you called me) early call for a blockbuster winter is in peril. Hope it's right

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your foolish(as you called me) early call for a blockbuster winter is in peril. Hope it's right

lol it's Nov 12.  November 12th.

Wait till mid-December to even think about it.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, although I'm not a fan of the next few weeks....kind of silly to panic even if part of December doesn't work out. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Only takes a little over 30 days to drop 100"+ in SE MA.  I'll wait till Februrary.

[Skivt2]

We run Nokian hakkapeliitta tires from midOctober ish to late March/early April depending on temperatures.  We drove from CT to VT on Thursday 10/27.  It was a long drive from 7-11:45 at 40mph on completely unplowed roads (even I-91 in VT).  Serburne pass was 6 inches deep icy slushy snow. We saw a lot of cars off the road but we did not slip once. Subaru Outback with Hakkapeliittas is a winning combo.  We can't do studs since we do so much highway driving.  We learned years ago from Vermonters that Nokians were the way to go.  Back in the day we even had to buy them in VT because we could not find a retailer in CT but that has changed.  I need new summer tires next summer. I'm thinking of going with the GR3's but still planning on putting on Hakkapeliitta's for the main winter months.  That way we can run the snows a shorter season and avoid the months when CT is too warm but in VT you need snows (like the past couple weeks).  It might sound like overkill but driving back and forth to Killington every week all winter from CT can be tough in a snowy winter.  We will take any advantage I can.

[Hazey]

Way too early to throw in the towel in regards to this winter, as 2014-15 proved with an epic turnaround. That being said, this string of brown Christmas days and grinch storms during the holidays is getting annoying. I'd like to see that streak broken.

[tamarack]

GFS continues to say, no snow for deer season 2016.  Lots of time after that, however.  No back-to-back ratters since moving here in 1998.

Putting snows on my little 2WD pickup has often made the difference between getting up our driveway 1st try and having to get the ash bucket, and I've found that if I can get out of the driveway I can make the one-mile grade (5% increasing to 8%, sharp corner at the bottom preventing run-up) on my commute.

[moneypitmike]

13 hours ago, weathafella said:

Losing 2 winter months (October and November) stings.

LOL.

 

I'm glad I got the jumpstart on the season with my 4.3".  It's going to take a while to double that.

[weathafella]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your foolish(as you called me) early call for a blockbuster winter is in peril. Hope it's right

Here's the quote from my FB (from 9/5).  Clearly was not so sold on solid December but big January and February.   

 

"Just a quick heads up-thinking winter will be very snowy and pretty cold.   First call is way above normal snow for us in southern New England.   Big snow removal and heating bill en route....get ready.   January and February should be cold and very snowy.  December may also be and that is the the toughest month to me.  The good news for the potentially winter weary-March and beyond looks mild.   I have to say I'm excited about what I am seeing in the oceans this month.   Severe winter ahead!"

 

What is your rationale other than fear for predicting a ratter?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Only takes a little over 30 days to drop 100"+ in SE MA.  I'll wait till Februrary.

Yup. Nobody has a single clue what it will look like once May rolls around.

[Isotherm]

I posted my outlook in the main board and NYC forum for those interested.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On November 11, 2016 at 6:01 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If they are first order sites, the NWS is probably the best place to get it for the current winter. The daily climate report will have the seasonal total in there and month-to-date total in there. Just scroll down to "snowfall" and it has all those totals. Over on the right it has climo for that date. Like if you click on ORH, it shows that climo is to have 0.7" so far on the season...but we've had just a trace so far.

Here is NWS BOX's:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

NWS OKX (New York):

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

 

NWS Mt. Holly (Philly):

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=phi

 

NWS LWX (Washington DC):

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

 

 

If you want monthly totals for years past, I like to use the climod2 site:

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu/

 

In the "product" section go to "monthly summarized data", in the "options" section choose "snowfall" as your variable and probably allow for like 5 missing days, and then type in your location in "station/area"...you can choose from a selection of nearby coops/airports that comes up when you type in the location.

 

 

 

 

Thank you so much, Will.

This was so helpful....bookmark that link, folks.

 

Burning the midnight oil....cleared a great deal up tonight.

Should have this out tmw pm.

[CoastalWx]

At least the CFS isn't a torch from Jan on. It's a furnace for December though.  

[dryslot]

Seasonal models look to start winter late once again, We may get a decent December one of these years

[Ginx snewx]

NSF [Cohen] basically showing 09/10

[Damage In Tolland]

Judas?

[Lava Rock]

Seasonal models look to start winter late once again, We may get a decent December one of these years

Tired of it.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

NSF [Cohen] basically showing 09/10

That's 09-10 for New England, but IIRC, MN/WI/MI were also well AN that winter.  Either way, no thanks, please.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

That's 09-10 for New England, but IIRC, MN/WI/MI were also well AN that winter.  Either way, no thanks, please.

would you trade that .8 temp An for AN snow, I mean that number means little in NNE

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

would you trade that .8 temp An for AN snow, I mean that number means little in NNE

That was the winter of the retro bomb that killed the season for many.  I'm pretty sure Tamarack wants no part of that.

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That was the winter of the retro bomb that killed the season for many.  I'm pretty sure Tamarack wants no part of that.

Slightly different hemispheric orientation means the world 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

would you trade that .8 temp An for AN snow, I mean that number means little in NNE

Absolutely.  Actually, I'd be okay with +0.8, as DJF 09-10 was +5.4 in Farmington, and JFM was even worse, +8.8, the mildest such 3-month period (by 2.0 F) in 124 years of record.