Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
On 10/28/2016 at 0:20 AM, Jebman said:

ATTN: Weathafella, Ginx Snewx and others in the SNE and in the NE:

We will have a pattern this winter that will give you 400 to 600 percent of normal snowfall. You will break records. Weenies will be flying all over the place. This winter you will have so damned much snow that you will think the last winter when you had 100+ inches of it, to be a warm spring day. BOSTON WILL BE SHUT DOWN FOR A WEEK, MAYBE TWO WEEKS. All of your snowblowers will blow millions of gaskets. Hell, you'll effin RUN OUT OF GASKETS. You will have the military come down to Dale City to force me via a fresh executive order, to come up there and dig you all out - Because I am the only man who CAN.

The Winter of 2016-2017 will blow your mind. You will stay up for a week at a time following the models. You will be doing this well into June! The pattern is setting up and it shall obtain all winter long.

Just remember - THE JEBMAN WARNED YOU FIRST.

 

 

 

 

 

- I am The Jebman, and I approve this message.

I think we should repost this every time someone goes into melt-down, winter cancel hysteria. It is the hysterical antidote. I know its a joke and that's what makes it so good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big OCTOBER similarities of the warmer weak La Nina winter years versus the cooler weak La Nina winter years, but that correlation actually extends from August through October. The correlation is strongest for the months of DEC/JAN:

This is only a selected sample size:

AUGUST-NOVEMBER 4, 2011
b4dp35u.gif

DECEMBER-JANUARY, 2011-12
brl1Gmd.png

 

AUGUST-NOVEMBER 4, 2012
vdV4xLj.gif

DECEMBER-JANUARY, 2012-13
XkrDuFO.png

 

AUGUST-NOVEMBER 4, 1988
ilYTz8g.gif

DECEMBER-JANUARY, 1988-89
8aSZD9p.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But the correlation of the colder DEC/JAN years usually was accompanied by a lot of ridging over eastern 1/3 of CONUS:

AUGUST 1--NOVEMBER 4, 1983
fAHv7mW.gif

DECEMBER-JANUARY, 1983-84
L2kRoUP.png


AUGUST 1--NOVEMBER 4, 1984
WMlhDRX.gif

JANUARY-FEBRUARY, 1984-85....this year was a little different & didn't turn cold until JAN...hence I'll include FEB. But it was a frigid JAN-FEB
Mz4q7r9.png


AUGUST 1--NOVEMBER 4, 2000
JBiSXKu.gif

DECEMBER-JANUARY, 2000-01
fGVZuPW.png

 

Here's AUGUST 01-NOVEMBER 4, 2016

 

8JlUaE8.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

LOL, a shocking forecast from them!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, a shocking forecast from them!

Nice, with 133%+ of normal they are forecasting:

160"+ in town.

399"+ up at the mountain.  

Always a pet peeve but I hope they understand what 133%+ means for the mountains, North Country, and Lake Effect regions they are highlighting.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Nice, with 133%+ of normal they are forecasting:

160"+ in town.

399"+ up at the mountain.  

Always a pet peeve but I hope they understand what 133%+ means for the mountains, North Country, and Lake Effect regions they are highlighting.

 

Well, you know they aren't speaking to those areas when they put those out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

BTV, PWM, SYR, etc. - the usual flatland suspects?

Even 133% and greater at SYR and BTV is a huge or at least impressive winter.  That's a minimum of 109" at BTV and 154" at SYR.  

Basically they are forecasting a top tier type winter with those values.

Once averages get into the 80" or higher range (which is probably a large region of their forecast bubble from the WV mountains north through Maine) getting over 133% of normal takes quite the parade of storms. 

Im more of the opinion that no one actually runs the numbers, it just looks good so let's go with it.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually digging into it, WeatherBell is forecasting a Top 10 snow winter of all-time at BTV.  SYR would be #8 all time.

109" (133% of normal) would rank #9 in the last 130 years in Burlington.

Interesting, and good luck.  I wonder if they realize what they are forecasting for cities and mountains in that bubble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...