Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

You can see in those graphics how much of a muted signal there is in New England during La Ninas.

 

 

Tough forecast for us. If we avoid the AK vortex though, then usually they will be very stormy/active...which is a good thing for snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

El Niño	                                    La Niña
Weak	Mod	Strong	    Very Strong	Weak	Mod	Strong
1951-52*	1963-64	1957-58	1982-83	1950-51	1955-56	1973-74
1952-53	1986-87	1965-66	1997-98	1954-55	1970-71	1975-76
1953-54	1987-88*	1972-73	2015-16	1964-65	1998-99	1988-89
1958-59	1991-92	 	 	1967-68*	1999-00*	 
1968-69*	2002-03	 	 	1971-72	2007-08	 
1969-70	2009-10	 	 	1974-75	        2010-11*	 
1976-77	 	 	 	1983-84		 
1977-78	 	 	 	1984-85		 
1979-80*	 	 	 	1995-96		 
1994-95*		 	 	2000-01		 
2004-05		 	 	2011-12		 
2006-07		 	 	 		 
 		 	 	 		 
 

                   

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

El Niño	                                    La Niña
Weak	Mod	Strong	    Very Strong	Weak	Mod	Strong
1951-52*	1963-64	1957-58	1982-83	1950-51	1955-56	1973-74
1952-53	1986-87	1965-66	1997-98	1954-55	1970-71	1975-76
1953-54	1987-88*	1972-73	2015-16	1964-65	1998-99	1988-89
1958-59	1991-92	 	 	1967-68*	1999-00*	 
1968-69*	2002-03	 	 	1971-72	2007-08	 
1969-70	2009-10	 	 	1974-75	2010-11*	 
1976-77	 	 	 	1983-84		 
1977-78	 	 	 	1984-85		 
1979-80*	 	 	 	1995-96		 
1994-95*		 	 	2000-01		 
2004-05		 	 	2011-12		 
2006-07		 	 	 		 
 		 	 	 		 
 

                   

 

 

 

 

I wonder why that list thinks 2010-2011 and 1970-1971 were weak La Ninas....those were both pretty darn potent. Like high end moderate. Though I don't know what metrics they use.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll know a lot more after the spring barrier

 

That's what I figure. There is a ton of cooler water just below the surface right now. But I'm not sold on some of those rapid dropoffs occuring shortly. History does show some potent Ninas after strong Ninos so we shall see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder why that list thinks 2010-2011 and 1970-1971 were weak La Ninas....those were both pretty darn potent. Like high end moderate. Though I don't know what metrics they use.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

10-11 is moderate, copied wrong

 

 

[* Important note: This list was changed in July 2015 to reflect the use of ERSSTv4 by CPC in the calculation of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Consequently the events (below) marked with an asterisk were shifted down one categor

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

10-11 is moderate

 

 

[* Important note: This list was changed in July 2015 to reflect the use of ERSSTv4 by CPC in the calculation of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Consequently the events (below) marked with an asterisk were shifted down one category

 

Oh yeah, the link also has '70-'71 as moderate too...that makes a lot more sense. I definitely wouldn't put them in the same category as those others listed in the weak column.

 

At any rate...we are probably in for a multi-year La Nina beyond this next winter. That happens almost everytime we get a potent El Nino.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can see in those graphics how much of a muted signal there is in New England during La Ninas.

Tough forecast for us. If we avoid the AK vortex though, then usually they will be very stormy/active...which is a good thing for snow.

Does having a positive vs negative PDO make a difference to New England during moderate and strong La Nina winters as far as cold and snow? Or is it negligible either way?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does having a positive vs negative PDO make a difference to New England during moderate and strong La Nina winters as far as cold and snow? Or is it negligible either way?

 

There's a very small sample size of +PDO during a La Nina...only a couple of years in the 1980s ('83-'84 and '84-'85). So hard to make a judgement on them. Both were weak La Nina too.

 

I don't think we have ever had a mod/strong LA Nina with a +PDO at the same time...unless you are talking about the general decadal PDO cycle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a very small sample size of +PDO during a La Nina...only a couple of years in the 1980s ('83-'84 and '84-'85). So hard to make a judgement on them. Both were weak La Nina too.

I don't think we have ever had a mod/strong LA Nina with a +PDO at the same time...unless you are talking about the general decadal PDO cycle.

Thanks guys. Yea, if there is indeed a moderate or strong Niña and a +PDO, we wouldn't have any analogs for that. I think the odds favor the PDO going negative with the Niña shift in the Pacific but the way the weather has been behaving the last few years, I guess anything is possible
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why not?

Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods?  I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods?  I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither).

10-11 was very very good to you

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods?  I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither).

 

We do not have a strong signal in ENSO events...the exception is probably weak El Ninos which are good for us...and perhaps to avoid very strong ENSO events in general (either very strong El Nino or very strong La Nina), though the sample size is very low on those.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...