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Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods?  I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither).

well for Nina years Gartholamew here are our approximate totals, you can look at the chart link I posted above and figure out strength

 

74/75 37"

83/84 60"

84/85 34"

88/89 17"

95/96 120"

98/99  50'

00-01 81"

07/08 51"

10/11 81'

11/12  21'

 

 

Roughly 55" average 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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well for Nina years Gartholamew here are our approximate totals, you can look at the chart link I posted above and figure out strength

 

74/75 37"

83/84 60"

84/85 34"

88/89 17"

95/96 120"

98/99  50'

00-01 81"

07/08 51"

10/11 81'

11/12  21'

 

 

Roughly 55" average 

 

'99-'00 and '75-'76 are missing from that. I'm assuming that is N Foster which started in '74.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I had about the same snow this winter, as 07-08. 70% of 07-08 snow came before Christmas.

 

That's mind boggling to me...just because this winter and that winter *could not* be more different here.  Like you couldn't pick two polar opposites any better...and I'm only 3 hours by car from your house.  I'm sure Dendrite is probably even a more extreme example that winter vs. this winter and he's much closer to BOS.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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That's mind boggling to me...just because this winter and that winter *could not* be more different here.  Like you couldn't pick two polar opposites any better...and I'm only 3 hours by car from your house.  I'm sure Dendrite is probably even a more extreme example that winter vs. this winter and he's much closer to BOS.

 

Other than the big late Jan blitz in far SE MA that year, winter shut off by Christmas really. I know....tough to believe...but the winter sucked after Christmas from BOS-south. 

 

Now 08-09 is entirel different. A 70"+ winter for us.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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08-09 was definitely one of my favorite underrated winters. I think there are both personal and meteorological reasons for it....but I truly enjoyed that winter. Such an awesome December. I gotta take a page from Kevin's book and say it truly means a lot to have full on winter December and January.

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dmillz25

dmillz25

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08-09 was definitely one of my favorite underrated winters. I think there are both personal and meteorological reasons for it....but I truly enjoyed that winter. Such an awesome December. I gotta take a page from Kevin's book and say it truly means a lot to have full on winter December and January.

There was a storm in January if I'm not mistaken that Boston recieved 6 inches and NYC was all rain. I lived in Boston at the time i just don't remember the date
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah I'd say anyway with 75% or higher of annual snow this season can safely be taken out of "ratter" terminology.

 

Ratters usually don't come with like 3-6 winter storm warnings and advisories.

 

Just need to avoid the one eyed pig in AK. We can play with fire with a SE ridge....although obviously you guys would be favored. 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
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well for Nina years Gartholamew here are our approximate totals, you can look at the chart link I posted above and figure out strength

 

74/75 37"

83/84 60"

84/85 34"

88/89 17"

95/96 120"

98/99  50'

00-01 81"

07/08 51"

10/11 81'

11/12  21'

 

 

Roughly 55" average 

Quite the range, but I suppose that could be said of any historic data.  Not bad stats, although 88-89 looked like a wrist slitter around these parts.  I was in Bristol, R.I. at college that winter so I can imagine it not being any better over there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I had about the same snow this winter, as 07-08. 70% of 07-08 snow came before Christmas.

 

Wow really?

 

Most of BOS area had like 50-60" in '07-'08...though there was a big gradient...so probably Weymouth def did worse...perhaps in the 40s. Logan airport itself had 14" more in '07-'08 vs this past winter. (52" vs 36")

 

Even in metrowest suburbs they had 60-70" in 07-'08...so def not really close to this winter. But I could see how parts of the south shore were close and even areas in the EWB-PYM-TAN corridor perhaps had more this season than '07-'08. '07-'08 was a sneaky bad winter on the south coast...total ratter there. Esp south coast of CT. I think BDR had like 18-19" that winter...pretty bad.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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33" @ Wareham in 07/08, which is only slightly below normal, but I guess we must have gotten lucky on an ocean storm from it being much worse. I wonder if it was the storm that nailed cweat/Sandwich with 14", while dropping 8" further SW where I lived.

and 40" @ Acushnet this year.

 

 

Yeah the Jan 28 storm in '08 you did well which boosted the season for sure. I think areas a bit to the west of you had in the low to mid 20s...areas like S RI. I don't have the '07-'08 snowmap at my fingertips since I'm at work, otherwise I'd post it.

 

 

At any rate, this is going to be a -QBO La Nina where the -QBO probably peaks in late autumn nor early winter....very similar to '07-'08 and '70-'71...so perhaps we may get another active gradient winter like those years. There's obviously going to be other factors involved though.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Wow really?

 

Most of BOS area had like 50-60" in '07-'08...though there was a big gradient...so probably Weymouth def did worse...perhaps in the 40s. Logan airport itself had 14" more in '07-'08 vs this past winter. (52" vs 36")

 

Even in metrowest suburbs they had 60-70" in 07-'08...so def not really close to this winter. But I could see how parts of the south shore were close and even areas in the EWB-PYM-TAN corridor perhaps had more this season than '07-'08. '07-'08 was a sneaky bad winter on the south coast...total ratter there. Esp south coast of CT. I think BDR had like 18-19" that winter...pretty bad.

The guy in Hingham had 46.4" in 07-08. Maybe Weymouth had a couple more...but overall it seems like both winters only differed by 3-4". I may have had a couple more than Hingham mostly from the inv trough event prior to Christmas 07. They only had a bit over 3" and then flipped to rain. My area did flip to a mix, but then back to snow in that event. The mix line never got past the Braintree split.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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I mean 3 hrs is a long drive, ask the peeps in Colorado, California Utah how different climate is in 3 hr drives

 

Of course, their 3 hour tour includes about 5,000' of elevation change, PF's about 500.  However, 07-08 had by far the greatest New England latitudinal variation in snow of any winter since I joined Eastern 11 years ago.  I think Will was running out of colors for his snowfall map after that winter.  (There's a good reason those maps don't extend into N.Maine - would've needed 4-5 extra colors that year.)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Of course, their 3 hour tour includes about 5,000' of elevation change, PF's about 500.  However, 07-08 had by far the greatest New England latitudinal variation in snow of any winter since I joined Eastern 11 years ago.  I think Will was running out of colors for his snowfall map after that winter.  (There's a good reason those maps don't extend into N.Maine - would've needed 4-5 extra colors that year.)

 

 

The only real analog for that winter's gradient was 1970-1971...which had a pretty similar type distribution.

 

Some years had intense gradients that were not quite as latitudinal as those years...but still pretty good...year's like 2000-2001 and 1992-1993. A little bit more tilt toward interior in those seasons.  

 

 

But '70-'71 and '07-'08 were kind of off the charts. La Ninas tend to have more frequency of gradient distributions than other winters.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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not that anyone asked ... but, i figure for:

 

an = above 50% chance for what most would subjectively confer to be a schit winter, if ENSO ranges higher or lower that plus or minus 1 standard deviation in magnitude.

 

bn = above 50% chance of above normal snowfall and temperatures near normal to perhaps below, if ENSO range less than 1 standard deviation in magnitude from the norm.

 

cn = 50% chance that either option above is modulated by polarward indices, which typically don't get much (if enough) factorization into winter planning as they should, for the simple reason that not enough is scientifically understood beyond mere linear correlation, as to how those mass field not only modulate, but fit into the global scheme/balance of heat source and sink during the cold season. 

 

Since no three positive integers a, b, and c can satisfy the equation an + bn = cn for any integer value of n greater than two ...thanks to Fermat's famous mathematical conjecture, and, n is the winter result in this paradigm... n cannot be solved for.

 

parody aside, who the f knows?!   

 

but i do think there is more merit to our having better winters of eastern N/A in more neutral ENSO's than not, and at a conceptual level ... that can and is empirically shown to be modulated by the AO/EPO/NAO tendencies - which really are only experimentally predictable.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Of course, their 3 hour tour includes about 5,000' of elevation change, PF's about 500. However, 07-08 had by far the greatest New England latitudinal variation in snow of any winter since I joined Eastern 11 years ago. I think Will was running out of colors for his snowfall map after that winter. (There's a good reason those maps don't extend into N.Maine - would've needed 4-5 extra colors that year.)

from Weymouth to Stowe is only 500 ft elevation change? Plus latitude
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