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Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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  • 2 weeks later...
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

BOS 68"

BTV 34"

:lol:

When NNE gets its mojo back, I picture all of you guys in one massive pig pile.....beating me up with ski poles. I finally come to on the ground and it's you, eyewall, Jspin, Mitch, Dendrite, and Tamrack all staring down at me on the ground. And just like a movie, all of the sudden I see a foot slowly heading to my face as I yell "noooooooo" and then everything becomes black.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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When NNE gets its mojo back, I picture all of you guys in one massive pig pile.....beating me up with ski poles. I finally come to on the ground and it's you, eyewall, Jspin, Mitch, Dendrite, and Tamrack all staring down at me on the ground. And just like a movie, all of the sudden I see a foot slowly heading to my face as I yell "noooooooo" and then everything becomes black.

Haha at this point it's just comical (though infuriating at times during the winter lol).... I mean probabilities would lean towards one of the next couple winters actually coming through strong in NNE.

I would just settle for at least one winter storm warning per month at this point lol.

Like Will said, it'll probably feel like the snowiest winter ever if we even just rattle off just like 3 straight 6-10" SWFE in like a two week period.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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There's gonna be about 30 "glad I don't live there" responses when you guys are getting 12-18" and I'm sipping cosmos on my deck in January.

Haha normally I'd say it's no fun trolling those who average less snow than you (trolling about snow is much more effective when you are getting buried while the higher average spots are high and dry), but might have to drop a couple of those "glad we don't live there" phrases if we do ever get bombed away.

The comeback to that though would be fairly easy...just post a radar image of like the 12 winter storm warning events Boston has had since parts of NNE have had one, lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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:lol: yeah that worked out well.

 

I dunno - that looked like it worked out pretty well, to me... 

 

Just my opinion but ... I think you folks are focusing too much on the leafs and not enough on the forest there.  The idea of predominating spatial layout of warm anomaly with fewer offsetting cool regions (depicted obviously as blue) overwhelmingly verified and characterizes the forest. 

 

The exact placements, the leafs, may be in question. However, I find the forest vastly more important when considering (fairly) both the level of scientific understanding of the climate, and the state of the art of technology in forecasting, combined.  

 

I dunno though.. .in a hundred years they'll be controlling the weather on this planet (if human's with tech wherewithal haven't annihilated themselves, first, that is...) anyway.  if it took a hundred years to develop the technology to predict a whole season in advance, it wouldn't matter, because the ability to control the daily weather would come around first ... making the former less necessary.  

 

Sound like science fiction ?    ...be that as it may, every technological vision proposed by fiction, thus far, has materialized in reality - it's just been a matter of time.  There would likely come a day when there is no mystery as to what is in store, or what could happen, because the "Weather Modification Net" will ensure climate friendly zones of banality rule the surface of the planet :axe:

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  • 3 weeks later...
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Still in the Spring barrier....but some decent consensus of weak to perhaps moderate Nina on these models. But as the graphic Will showed...that is a lot of cooler water. I would guess closer to Moderate Nina as well. 

 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

For those that want to know what the Spring Barrier is

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Here is 1998 vs 2016 at this point....you can see 1998 had lower anomalies but the overall picture is not too different. Focus on the 3rd image in each set...the subsurface.

IDYOC002_199806.gif

 

 

 

IDYOC002_201606.gif

 

 

 

 

Compare with other Junes before potent Ninas like 2007 and 2010:

 

IDYOC002_200706.gif

 

 

jun2010_2.png

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I think it'll be a good bit colder than negative neutral...the subsurface cold may not be as intense as 1998 but is more widespread. I imagine we should see at least a moderate La Nina, which is typical climo following a potent El Nino.

 

 

That is definitely my leaning as well.

 

We'll certainly have a much clearer picture though in about 6-8 weeks.

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