Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[tamarack]

My 18-year average is currently 49.70".  It's "live" and so changes with each full month I enter.  Jan-Feb are the driest with just under 3" in each, with March at 3.70" the 3rd least.  June and Oct are the wettest with about 5.5" in each.  That map would put my location between 11 and 12 to one, much closer to the 12.  That's about 10% higher than what I've recorded for "significant" snow events, those 2" and larger, and I'm not surer whether the 15-20% of snow that comes in smaller doses would make much of a difference, though 6-hr measurements would likely boost the ratio.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think this upcoming winter will feature two large KU type Miller B snowstorms. That is my prediction.

[moneypitmike]

I think this upcoming winter will feature two large KU type Miller B snowstorms. That is my prediction.

 

Is that your prediction or is that your guess?

[BRSno]

I think this upcoming winter will feature two large KU type Miller B snowstorms. That is my prediction.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Moderate Nino is pretty much lights out for me down here unless we get some blocking. As orhwxman said no way NNE dosent do better then last winter, they will get back on the saddle this winter.

[weathafella]

Allsnow you meant Nina presumably?

First look. Check again in about 8-10 weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

'08-'09 didn't have a signature KU event and wasn't as prolific as '07-'08 in NNE (that winter also didn't have a KU), so it kind of gets overlooked around here.

 

But '08-'09 was pretty impressive for a chunk of that winter...it had the big snows before Christmas, the absolutely epic ice storm in the interior N of the pike minus the CT Valley, and then January was very cold with a lot of snow events. Jan 2009 was like a -5 to -6 departure...it was damned cold. It also had almost no thaws either which helped the pack build up well.

 

Feb 2009 kind of sucked, but we did have the decent storm on March 1-2.

What I will always remember about that winter was how consistently cold January was...there was a stretch where I did not hit freezing for just about a month.

I had around 1' depth for about the whole month.

 

First guess, not feeling a KU.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Moderate to strong nina is itself fine unless it is combined with:

Positive NAO/EPO

Above lends credence to JAMSTEC.

But the bigger reason for my hunch is the fact that the past 15 winters (first half of the next 30 year normal) have averaged 20% higher than the long term mean for Boston. It seems highly unlikely that we go that much higher for a 30 year normal so I expect some hard regression.

Unless the warming climate portends a shift in the long term mean...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just thought it was a solid winter with some good storms. That December and January combo was a good one. Feb sucked but at least we had the March 2 storm.

Its funny.....certain systems throught time resonate with me as having rendered me an inveterate advocate for certain rules of thumb....or having finally "learned a lesson", so to speak....

2007-2009 was the period in which I enhanced my understanding of synoptic meterology by finally grasping the concept of mid level lows (H85, H7), and how exactly to use them.

I learned that :

1) You can still receive a good snowfall from a rather unappealing synoptic layout.

2) Don't forecast over 1' of snow when the aforermentioned mid level lows pass to your west (March 2, 2009...I hammered  many mets forecasting well over 1').

[ORH_wxman]

Unless the warming climate portends a shift in the long term mean...

 

I would think that is very unlikely to produce a 20% jump in annual snowfall. We're probably just going through a cyclical period (or flukish) like the late 1950s through early 1970s when much of SNE (particularly the 128 belt out to interior MA/RI) saw snowfall that was about 20-25% above the long term mean. We then got a rude awakening in the 1979-1992 period.

 

Though obviously we cannot rule anything out. I'd just be skeptical of thinking we're now in a "new normal" of 20% greater snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would think that is very unlikely to produce a 20% jump in annual snowfall. We're probably just going through a cyclical period (or flukish) like the late 1950s through early 1970s when much of SNE (particularly the 128 belt out to interior MA/RI) saw snowfall that was about 20-25% above the long term mean. We then got a rude awakening in the 1979-1992 period.

 

Though obviously we cannot rule anything out. I'd just be skeptical of thinking we're now in a "new normal" of 20% greater snowfall.

I was just raising the possibility.....obviously not the most likely scenario.

We don't know, though.....at some point, shifts happen and are real.

[CoastalWx]

Its funny.....certain systems throught time resonate with me as having rendered me an inveterate advocate for certain rules of thumb....or having finally "learned a lesson", so to speak....

2007-2009 was the period in which I enhanced my understanding of synoptic meterology by finally grasping the concept of mid level lows (H85, H7), and how exactly to use them.

I learned that :

1) You can still receive a good snowfall from a rather unappealing synoptic layout.

2) Don't forecast over 1' of snow when the aforermentioned mid level lows pass to your west (March 2, 2009...I hammered  many mets forecasting well over 1').

 

  Scooter HP. All you need is good WAA slamming against the cold dome and it will snow. It may not last long if the mid level lows are going through KBGM...but gotta have the good HP. It helps establish the isentropic lift...or simply upward vertical motion as warm air is forced up and over the cold air near the surface. Some of those setups at 850 had like 60kts of srly wind over BID and dead calm at the same level over PVD. There's a front in there somewhere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  Scooter HP. All you need is good WAA slamming against the cold dome and it will snow. It may not last long if the mid level lows are going through KBGM...but gotta have the good HP. It helps establish the isentropic lift...or simply upward vertical motion as warm air is forced up and over the cold air near the surface. Some of those setups at 850 had like 60kts of srly wind over BID and dead calm at the same level over PVD. There's a front in there somewhere. 

It can with a potent, optimally placed scooter HP...

[ORH_wxman]

It can with a potent, optimally placed scooter HP...

 

 

Good example is this storm (2/2/15)...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That high (and jet streak down south) really started to help us later that morning and afternoon in keeping the precip going...you almost get redevelopment to the east of the ML center. But you can see how far west the 850 low is at 12z that morning...over like ROC/BUF region.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good example is this storm (2/2/15)...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That high (and jet streak down south) really started to help us later that morning and afternoon in keeping the precip going...you almost get redevelopment to the east of the ML center. But you can see how far west the 850 low is at 12z that morning...over like ROC/BUF region.

That was dead-nuts in the middle of the most magical pantstent that any of us will ever experience.....just walls, and walls of weenies..

[ORH_wxman]

That was dead-nuts in the middle of the most magical pantstent that any of us will ever experience.....just walls, and walls of weenies..

 

We got away with it again about a week later...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That Scooter high was so strong in Quebec though. You can see in the first panel how basically the entire country was torching except New England and maybe extreme northern Lakes. That was during our "relaxation period" that was well-modeled....except the nuances of an epic high pressure in Quebec shielded us from the longwave pattern that was torching everyone else. That's the kind of crap that goes your way when you break records for both cold and snow in 1 month.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh, you know ... what it really boils down to (go figure) is critical thickness's intervals. 

 

if it's cold and wedged in below 750 you're usually good to go with at least sleet, and more typically that sleet comes with a front end thump anyway.  Low's can even go west of us...  they just end up riding up and over the polar dome ...the frontal tapestry gets fragmented, with cut off enclosed parcels that ice along with ragged pellets left in the wake of a sheared out mess of a triple point squeezed underneath.... blah blah blah 

 

if i'm a winter zealot and just hate the notion of brown earth from Novie 15 to March 1 i'd take that kitchen sinker any day over the 1988 unabated warm marches right to Montreal we kept getting.   

 

i tend also to see Will's point, that 20% above normal doesn't "intuitively" seem like GW could cause all that - 20 % is a huge number when talking about 30, 60 and 100 year means and so forth.  still, in systems of nature, they often function within 'tolerances' of change, but push those change across 'thresholds' and the thing upheavals into a new paradigm...  

 

having said all that, who knows what the thresholds really are - much less, whether 'more snow' has to really be part of that; which kinda makes me inclined to think it's just noise.  we'll regress ... hell, in 100 years, the climate zone will have shift to Maine, and our descendancy will be living in DC land anyway. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

heh, you know ... what it really boils down to (go figure) is critical thickness's intervals. 

 

if it's cold and wedged in below 750 you're usually good to go with at least sleet, and more typically that sleet comes with a front end thump anyway.  Low's can even go west of us...  they just end up riding up and over the polar dome ...the frontal tapestry gets fragmented, with cut off enclosed parcels that ice along with ragged pellets left in the wake of a sheared out mess of a triple point squeezed underneath.... blah blah blah 

 

if i'm a winter zealot and just hate the notion of brown earth from Novie 15 to March 1 i'd take that kitchen sinker any day over the 1988 unabated warm marches right to Montreal we kept getting.   

 

i tend also to see Will's point, that 20% above normal doesn't "intuitively" seem like GW could cause all that - 20 % is a huge number when talking about 30, 60 and 100 year means and so forth.  still, in systems of nature, they often function within 'tolerances' of change, but push those change across 'thresholds' and the thing upheavals into a new paradigm...  

 

having said all that, who knows what the thresholds really are - much less, whether 'more snow' has to really be part of that; which kinda makes me inclined to think it's just noise.  we'll regress ... hell, in 100 years, the climate zone will have shift to Maine, and our descendancy will be living in DC land anyway. 

 

heh, you know ... what it really boils down to (go figure) is critical thickness's intervals. 

 

if it's cold and wedged in below 750 you're usually good to go with at least sleet, and more typically that sleet comes with a front end thump anyway.  Low's can even go west of us...  they just end up riding up and over the polar dome ...the frontal tapestry gets fragmented, with cut off enclosed parcels that ice along with ragged pellets left in the wake of a sheared out mess of a triple point squeezed underneath.... blah blah blah 

 

if i'm a winter zealot and just hate the notion of brown earth from Novie 15 to March 1 i'd take that kitchen sinker any day over the 1988 unabated warm marches right to Montreal we kept getting.   

 

i tend also to see Will's point, that 20% above normal doesn't "intuitively" seem like GW could cause all that - 20 % is a huge number when talking about 30, 60 and 100 year means and so forth.  still, in systems of nature, they often function within 'tolerances' of change, but push those change across 'thresholds' and the thing upheavals into a new paradigm...  

 

having said all that, who knows what the thresholds really are - much less, whether 'more snow' has to really be part of that; which kinda makes me inclined to think it's just noise.  we'll regress ... hell, in 100 years, the climate zone will have shift to Maine, and our descendancy will be living in DC land anyway. 

I never quantified the amount, but it would have something to do with it.

But you both are right....the greater likelihood is that it doesn't; however warmer airmasses do yield more energy.

Just food for thought.

[CoastalWx]

I was thinking more the front end thump deals in a more progressive Nina pattern. But yeah...there are exceptions for sure. 

[ORH_wxman]

I was thinking more the front end thump deals in a more progressive Nina pattern. But yeah...there are exceptions for sure. 

 

The 6-8 hour thumps are def more common when the ML center is moving over central NY. There's exceptions to every rule though...2015 seemed to have a lot of "exceptions", lol. You kind of have to in order to break records left and right for both cold and snow.

 

But probably 90% of our SWFEs really only have good snow for <8 hours.

[powderfreak]

I would think that is very unlikely to produce a 20% jump in annual snowfall. We're probably just going through a cyclical period (or flukish) like the late 1950s through early 1970s when much of SNE (particularly the 128 belt out to interior MA/RI) saw snowfall that was about 20-25% above the long term mean. We then got a rude awakening in the 1979-1992 period.

Though obviously we cannot rule anything out. I'd just be skeptical of thinking we're now in a "new normal" of 20% greater snowfall.

I thought 2000-2010 was the new normal up here, until 2011-2016 has been equal with 1985-1990, lol.

Mother Nature loves her averages.

[OceanStWx]

The 6-8 hour thumps are def more common when the ML center is moving over central NY. There's exceptions to every rule though...2015 seemed to have a lot of "exceptions", lol. You kind of have to in order to break records left and right for both cold and snow.

 

But probably 90% of our SWFEs really only have good snow for <8 hours.

 

lollis to 10" but don't go showing me snowfall maps with big areas of 12-15"

[CoastalWx]

lollis to 10" but don't go showing me snowfall maps with big areas of 12-15"

 

Multiple storms with QPF FTL. That was a great way to apply the logic of mid level lows and dryslots. Those were modeled well. The QPF just was overdone in low level WAAS regimes with dryslots. A bias as we all know.

[ORH_wxman]

lollis to 10" but don't go showing me snowfall maps with big areas of 12-15"

 

Yeah it's hard to get more than 10" in those usually...once in a while you can get a 10-12 lolli zone, but yeah most of my forecasts in SWFEs over the years were right in the 6-10/8-12 zone. I feel like I was copying and pasting the 6-10" forecast all season in 2007-2008 for the clients in N ORH county.

 

 

Multiple storms with QPF FTL. That was a great way to apply the logic of mid level lows and dryslots. Those were modeled well. The QPF just was overdone in low level WAAS regimes with dryslots. A bias as we all know.

 

 

Yeah, remember 2/2/11? Lots of snowfall maps showing 12-18....fail. I'm not talking about the round 1 either on 2/1 (that was kind of separate impulse).

[OceanStWx]

Yeah it's hard to get more than 10" in those usually...once in a while you can get a 10-12 lolli zone, but yeah most of my forecasts in SWFEs over the years were right in the 6-10/8-12 zone. I feel like I was copying and pasting the 6-10" forecast all season in 2007-2008 for the clients in N ORH county.

 

I usually try and create a map with a max of near 10" around IZG and call it good. 

 

But the rip and read crew inevitably bumps things up into that 12-15" category, especially when you get one of those juicy NAM runs.

[powderfreak]

lollis to 10" but don't go showing me snowfall maps with big areas of 12-15"

The best SWFE snow maps are like ones that are already overdone on QPF, and then apply like a 15:1 ratio because the SFC is cold but in reality you end up with 7-8:1 needles because it's -2C at 700mb and snow growth is putrid.

So instead of 15" on 1.0" QPF some guy gets 6" on 0.75" liquid and freaks out about a huge bust.

[OceanStWx]

The best SWFE snow maps are like ones that are already overdone on QPF, and then apply like a 15:1 ratio because the SFC is cold but in reality you end up with 7-8:1 needles because it's -2C at 700mb and snow growth is putrid.

So instead of 15" on 1.0" QPF some guy gets 6" on 0.75" liquid and freaks out about a huge bust.

 

You would be shocked at how little science goes into the snow grid. Very few offices, and fewer forecasters, are using something more scientific than a straight ratio slider bar.

 

This is a good reminder. I've been trying to see if we can get a base snow ratio climo map into GFE so that at a first guess we can just apply that to create snow amounts.

[ORH_wxman]

The best SWFE snow maps are like ones that are already overdone on QPF, and then apply like a 15:1 ratio because the SFC is cold but in reality you end up with 7-8:1 needles because it's -2C at 700mb and snow growth is putrid.

So instead of 15" on 1.0" QPF some guy gets 6" on 0.75" liquid and freaks out about a huge bust.

That's what happened in the 2/2/11 storm. All over TV there were 12-18 and even some 20" lollis. We were in the thread screaming about it lol. We couldn't believe those amounts on a mid level center going through SYR. We knew the QPF was way overdone...probably aided by the extra convection from the warm sector in the gulf/southeast (that storm was quite mature pretty far west)

Sure enough the 7-10" amounts came in near the end of it...maybe a few scattered 12" lollis. The Synoptics usually win.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah it's hard to get more than 10" in those usually...once in a while you can get a 10-12 lolli zone, but yeah most of my forecasts in SWFEs over the years were right in the 6-10/8-12 zone. I feel like I was copying and pasting the 6-10" forecast all season in 2007-2008 for the clients in N ORH county.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, remember 2/2/11? Lots of snowfall maps showing 12-18....fail. I'm not talking about the round 1 either on 2/1 (that was kind of separate impulse).

 

That was classic.  It's a perfect case of taking models and having the human massage the output to make a better forecast.

[Typhoon Tip]

You would be shocked at how little science goes into the snow grid. Very few offices, and fewer forecasters, are using something more scientific than a straight ratio slider bar.

 

This is a good reminder. I've been trying to see if we can get a base snow ratio climo map into GFE so that at a first guess we can just apply that to create snow amounts.

 

OMG!  ...I'd LOVE that down this way for our majors... 

 

I tried to argue (not winning, of course...) that the big February of 2014 down this way kind of "cheated" for lack of better word, because the month on whole was so ridiculously cold. Centric to events ... 0 F (yes, not euphemism ..actual 0 F) S++ which happened twice (to mention the other events in the teens) where it snowed some 20 " made like bootleg totals/record smashings...

 

I don't discount the records going down... but, I happen to think in physical terms more than that, and a 60 " month of 10:1 snow is a helluva bigger deal in atmospheric "achievement" compared to dust bunnies.  and, i bet you dimes to dollars that five foot of blue glory with a couple of frigid snaps in the tweeners to keep it locked would have meant a lot more to everything from gridded infrastructure to basic social services... 

 

but i realize that's not really where you were headed - just sayn'