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Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted
On 8/1/2016 at 4:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

 

The only real precedent for a weak La Nina after a super nino is 1983-1984. Not that we have a big sample size. 1878-1879 was likely a neutral year after a super nino. The rest of the years seem to be pretty potent Ninas (1998-1999, 1973-1974, 1889-1890)

 

 

 

We don't have a precedent for a Pacific this warm with a La Nina attempting to develop. See Bluewave's latest post:

 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

We don't have a precedent for a Pacific this warm with a La Nina attempting to develop. See Bluewave's latest post:

 

 

 

Yeah it may prevent this Nina from becoming mod/strong...but we'll see. Still a long ways to go. The subsurface is still plenty cold, despite not being as cold as it was back in June.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That in Boston again while NNE looks like this?  

I love how I google "mud skiing" and a photo of myself at Stowe is in the top 3 hits.

 

 

Probably more like this for the upcoming winter:

 

card00585_fr.jpg

 

comm_ave.jpg

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Haha...I love this time of year and the fall.  Everything is possible.  Could always be a banner snow year.  Much more optimistic this time of year rather than when it's January and you are waiting for that "rocking second half" lol.  

I would really enjoy some good front end winter snows.  Been since 2012 for some good December storms.  We had two warning criteria events during Christmas Week that year, instead of the annual grinch storm.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, the snow Gods will soon resume overseeing NNE. I know it's tough to shake the PTSD...but things will soon be normal. I'm currently looking for good Mojito recipes for my January deck sipping.

 

I don't know if I'd be that pessimistic there, you may get some goodies like this:

 

1_18_04_web.jpg

 

 

 

 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I don't know if I'd be that pessimistic there, you may get some goodies like this:

 

1_18_04_web.jpg

 

 

 

 

That sort of corresponds to my memory of the slopstorm we had the day the Jan 2015 blizzard first popped up on the 0z Euro run. Probably the only reason I remember it at all, for the miraculous glory that was to come oh so soon after. Edit: also the Octobomb in Cambridge. Heavy rain followed by an hour of slop with the deform band.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That sort of corresponds to my memory of the slopstorm we had the day the Jan 2015 blizzard first popped up on the 0z Euro run. Probably the only reason I remember it at all, for the miraculous glory that was to come oh so soon after. Edit: also the Octobomb in Cambridge. Heavy rain followed by an hour of slop with the deform band.

 

You talking about Jan 24, 2015? The storm on Saturday before the blizzard?

 

I thought Boston did ok in that one...though if you were south of Boston you may have had a lot more slop. I went to a concert that night in Boston and it was snowing pretty hard for a time. I think they picked up 5 inches or so. There was a period of mix around midday before things flipped back to a steady snow for a few hours that evening.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think I had 5.9" in that one. We did fairly well. It did briefly tip before getting another 1.5" or so. 

 

That was the storm where 2 days before it you went on a tirade of cuss words and throwing things around your house saying it was going to ruin the Monday storm.

 

 

Little did we know at the time Monday's storm would take a looping wide right turn before destroying us. It was originally modeled as a potent Miller B straight out of the OH/TN valleys and hitting a larger portion of the east coast than it ultimately ended up hitting.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

That was the storm where 2 days before it you went on a tirade of cuss words and throwing things around your house saying it was going to ruin the Monday storm.

 

 

Little did we know at the time Monday's storm would take a looping wide right turn before destroying us. It was originally modeled as a potent Miller B straight out of the OH/TN valleys and hitting a larger portion of the east coast than it ultimately ended up hitting.

:lol:   You love that.  It looked like wave spacing issues would screw us. I remember how awesome it looked at H5, and all I saw was that POS ahead of it..messing it up. Boy, what a turn of events. What a winter.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think I had 5.9" in that one. We did fairly well. It did briefly tip before getting another 1.5" or so. 

Hard to believe how big of an event 5.9" sounds like...easily would've beat anything from last winter.  I still can't believe that 4" was the max I saw at any one time last winter at home.  

My favorite OB from last winter is the Hyde Park CoCoRAHS about 10 miles to my north had 3.8" on May 13th and in the notes it says "largest daily total of the season."  I'm not sure what's crazier, the fact that 3.8" is the highest daily snowfall in north-central VT smack in the Greens, or that the largest snowfall occurred on May 13th.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to believe how big of an event 5.9" sounds like...easily would've beat anything from last winter.  I still can't believe that 4" was the max I saw at any one time last winter at home.  

My favorite OB from last winter is the Hyde Park CoCoRAHS about 10 miles to my north had 3.8" on May 13th and in the notes it says "largest daily total of the season."  I'm not sure what's crazier, the fact that 3.8" is the highest daily snowfall in north-central VT smack in the Greens, or that the largest snowfall occurred on May 13th.

 

November 2016 in NNE:  Making Winter Great Again

 

 

 

 

 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You talking about Jan 24, 2015? The storm on Saturday before the blizzard?

 

I thought Boston did ok in that one...though if you were south of Boston you may have had a lot more slop. I went to a concert that night in Boston and it was snowing pretty hard for a time. I think they picked up 5 inches or so. There was a period of mix around midday before things flipped back to a steady snow for a few hours that evening.

Yeah that was the one. Maybe my memory is off, but I seem to remember it being very sloppy. Perhaps it just had to do with being in the city. Regardless, the only reason I remember it at all is for what came a few days later. (And for the next three weeks)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to believe how big of an event 5.9" sounds like...easily would've beat anything from last winter.  I still can't believe that 4" was the max I saw at any one time last winter at home.  

My favorite OB from last winter is the Hyde Park CoCoRAHS about 10 miles to my north had 3.8" on May 13th and in the notes it says "largest daily total of the season."  I'm not sure what's crazier, the fact that 3.8" is the highest daily snowfall in north-central VT smack in the Greens, or that the largest snowfall occurred on May 13th.

Enjoy S+ at my expense this year. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

anyway ...back on topic for a moment .. 

that up stairs is precisely related to what I was trying to bring to light, and that is that these NINO and NINA events mathematically can't be the same meaningfulness on an atmosphere that is in a dramatic multi-decadal (and likely to continue) warming trend. And, it's not like that's just beginning ...we've cached enough to say 'the world is warmer' both land and sea.

Re-iterating the core tenet/ concepts ... not only is a NINO sort of 'lost' and less differentiating against the medium (thus, ineffectual at modulating AS much change) in key typical effected climate zones, but, NINAs are also comparatively warmer at there nadir ...which also should augment it's effectiveness on the atmosphere.  hence the unprecedented - 

there is still enough cooling potential - by a wide margin too - to get winters horrifyingly cold; we haven't come to that threshold yet where the base-line winter climate is eternally corn-holed... BUT, i do thing we have crossed a threshold where 'IF' it gets warm in the winter, the warm anomalies are either warmer, or, longer in duration than even the mid part of last century (oh some 40 + years back). i also believe there is added off-set potential that if a winter is a sham like 2012, it can be more like the March that year where it was an 'unprecedented' +10 monthly mean at most climo sites.  ...that was perhaps eastern N/A (interesting for time of year perhaps masking its significance)  having a French killer heat wave at the wrong time of year - ha.

anyway, i completely agree that a surrounding warm bias et al has to be taken into consideration for how this fledgling NINA will effect the larger scale circulation medium, because if the whole of the thing is warm then what difference (literally!) does it make?  it makes less... and less means less wind on both sides of the ENSO equation - that's just physics. 

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

Tip are the warm water anomalies off the East Coast due to a warm phase of the AMO?  If so, don't we need a massive hurricane to off set these warm waters in order to get a less extreme weather events here in the winter time?  What if the warm AMO stays throughout the winter?  Won't we have a huge warm water temperature anomaly off the East Coast up to 40N: 70W point aiding in explosive cyclogenesis along the East Coast from 35N: 75W to 40N: 70W locations of a moving winter storm low.  IN which circumstances could bring a hybrid nor'easter in which it is partly tropical in nature in the core and a nor'easter on the outside, like Sandy?

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

I'm extremely worried about the Gulf Stream temp anomalies this winter if we don't get a hurricane this summer/fall to offset these temperatures near 38N:70W.  It has been a rather average warmth summer for Cape Cod standards, rather temps have been uniform, like in the low 80s, one day in the 90s but most either 78-82 range.  This should bode well for snow lovers in the winter time if the temp stays between 28-32 on the coastal plain where winter storms will be the norm.

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