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Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

Please let's just try to avoid a disaster like December 2015. Honestly for a winter weather lover that month was as bad as bad gets. The entire northeast had no shot at snow. It was a perfect pattern for a furnace that month. Some snow and cold would be nice to have around the holiday. 

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol, and here I'd say last April was actually quite wintery...but yeah those to me are wire to wire ratters.

 

A quick check on my data indicates that Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar at my site were all below average for snowfall, so far below average that the sum of the deficits was over 80 inches.  On the other hand, Apr, Oct, and May were all above average for snowfall, but that surplus summed to only 4 inches.  Having 1 accumulating storm in Oct was about average, and having 6 and 2 accumulating storms for April and May respectively was certainly above average, so those periods in and of themselves weren’t ratters, and were in fact quite wintry.  I guess last season was a wire-to-wire ratter around here as long as you don’t include the wires themselves.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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We did ok for like a 10 day period in mid-January in the interior in 2012. I think we had like 4 or 5 snow events and some ice/ZR that totaled 13.5" and temps averaging below normal. But yeah, overall it was a pretty ghastly winter.

 

We haven't had a good start to winter since 2009-2010 (which promptly turned to sh** late)...unless you count November 2014 which was quite cold in the 2nd half with that big snow/sleet event for the interior. But December sucked, so I don't really count that as a great start...but I felt the need to mention it because I don't find Thanksgiving weekend snow and cold useless.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We did ok for like a 10 day period in mid-January in the interior in 2012. I think we had like 4 or 5 snow events and some ice/ZR that totaled 13.5" and temps averaging below normal. But yeah, overall it was a pretty ghastly winter.

 

We haven't had a good start to winter since 2009-2010 (which promptly turned to sh** late)...unless you count November 2014 which was quite cold in the 2nd half with that big snow/sleet event for the interior. But December sucked, so I don't really count that as a great start...but I felt the need to mention it because I don't find Thanksgiving weekend snow and cold useless.

Miss the old days, 2007 December skiing was sick

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Miss the old days, 2007 December skiing was sick

 

Remember when we had all those great Decembers we said we'd pay up for that? Well, I'd say we have paid up now the past 5 seasons...sans maybe 2013, but that December got Grinched pretty badly just before Xmas.

 

2000-2009 was pretty awesome for Decembers, way over climo for snow...really only 2001 and 2006 sucked and we had many blockbusters including '02, '03, '05, '07, '08.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Missing out on Decembers and these late starts have not been the best way to run winters up this way, Even if we lack in the snow dept early on, We could take some sustained cold to at least get the ground and water ways frozen

Yeah for any winter recreation you want snow and cold earlier than later.  Even if you lay down a decent 2-3 foot pack in NNE in December or early January, that snow will be there till the end even if it stops snowing in Feb/Mar.  You can still make good use of it...but it needs to be there in the first place.  These winters of waiting till mid-January to even get started is like punting 4-6 weeks of fun.  

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dryslot

dryslot

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah for any winter recreation you want snow and cold earlier than later.  Even if you lay down a decent 2-3 foot pack in NNE in December or early January, that snow will be there till the end even if it stops snowing in Feb/Mar.  You can still make good use of it...but it needs to be there in the first place.  These winters of waiting till mid-January to even get started is like punting 4-6 weeks of fun.  

Yes, Its been a while since we have had an early start, I like seeing some cold and snow in November during hunting season, Makes it more enjoyable plus the animals are on the move while you sit and freeze, Lol, Other wise when its warm, They bed down and you have to walk around sweating yours ballz off, Definitely by thanksgiving, You want to see some wintry weather as you have a chance to hold onto it as you head into December, We will see if that is the case this year

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Its been a while since we have had an early start, I like seeing some cold and snow in November during hunting season, Makes it more enjoyable plus the animals are on the move while you sit and freeze, Lol, Other wise when its warm, They bed down and you have to walk around sweating yours ballz off, Definitely by thanksgiving, You want to see some wintry weather as you have a chance to hold onto it as you head into December, We will see if that is the case this year

not that you asked... but the top three early starters in my experience are, in no particular order, 1995, 2007, 2008; the latter two were similar in a lot of ways - 2007 and 2008 both were isentropic in nature (code for overrunning). 

1995 was just a odd gradient deal ... where the mean polar boundary just fell a degree latitude ever day and wouldn't go back N for any reason.  when a given location succeeded that, whatever fell out of the sky was frozen or freezing,.. frozen the majority of the time.  i resided in the Merrimack Valley area back then ... it was roughly the 12th of November and we had a sleet and snow thing to the tune of 3-5" of cake and froze and would ultimately turn out to be a base the supported some 36" of snow shortly after the Jan 10 storm in 1996... that was the year of the "Megalopolis Blizzard" .. you may recall?  we also had some damn proper frigid air in December that year...   

 

2007 and 2008 were interesting in that some 70 to 90 % of SNE snow fall in both Decembers fell from front-wall isentropic lift where a polar highs were perfectly situated/timed for west cutting lows.  i think those events those years were the first time i saw convincing powder from a low going over Buffalo...  they did tend to end a drizzle, but the damage was always done and both years had like 40" months... pretty f spectacular. 

 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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A negative EPO tends to be more efficient at dumping extreme cold into the US, but a negative NAO is usually better for cold maintenance in the Northeast. Protracted snowpack duration generally occurs in dominant -NAO winters (e.g., 2010-11). 2013-14 was an excellent winter, but we did have a few nasty warm incursions along the coastal plain that took a toll on the snowpack, because there was no downstream blocking. I'd personally rather the -NAO as well, with less extreme cold invasions but a maintenance of cold over the Northeast.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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8 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

A negative EPO tends to be more efficient at dumping extreme cold into the US, but a negative NAO is usually better for cold maintenance in the Northeast. Protracted snowpack duration generally occurs in dominant -NAO winters (e.g., 2010-11). 2013-14 was an excellent winter, but we did have a few nasty warm incursions along the coastal plain that took a toll on the snowpack, because there was no downstream blocking. I'd personally rather the -NAO as well, with less extreme cold invasions but a maintenance of cold over the Northeast.

I agree...it would be even better if we did have a weak Nina. I don't need 1934 style cold. Just give me the snow. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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36 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

A negative EPO tends to be more efficient at dumping extreme cold into the US, but a negative NAO is usually better for cold maintenance in the Northeast. Protracted snowpack duration generally occurs in dominant -NAO winters (e.g., 2010-11). 2013-14 was an excellent winter, but we did have a few nasty warm incursions along the coastal plain that took a toll on the snowpack, because there was no downstream blocking. I'd personally rather the -NAO as well, with less extreme cold invasions but a maintenance of cold over the Northeast.

i think of the NAO as a coin-flipper index... stochastic and tending to biased one way or the other for a time, giving the illusion of persistence.   what i mean by that is like they teach you in statistics 101:  you can flip a coin 10 times and have it be heads every time - you may think you understand the system of coin as being a heads. 

"-NAO dominant winters" are kind of faux result, because it just like the coin, and randomality is trying to given the impression that it may be negative. 

obviously that sounds kind of stupid on the surface; the index may in fact BE negative or positive during a given winter, much of the time.  but even in so, let's look at that for a moment.  the NAO could be -NAO the whole time, but if the balance of the positive geopotential anomalies are idiosyncratically positioned E of Greenland...we may in fact appear anti-correlated with our temperatures and circulation pattern exiting the Americas.  compounding, the NAO height distribution (west and/or easterly tending...) moves around much more fluidly than the other teleconnectors (PNA and EPO)... a -NAO may start out over D. Straight but evolve, even inside of a weeks time, further E in the domain space, such that the negative value belies what's really going on. 

it would thus seem risky to me to presume a -NAO means one thing or the other, without qualifying it in space and time.  contrasting, a -EPO does "lie" as much - it seemsto result in the same sort of scenario for mid latitudes down stream over N/A.  i've often heard folks discuss how -EPOs mean cold into the Front Range and a ridge on the eastern seaboard.  i disagree - it may at first, but that construct in the deep layer features wave lengths that are too short for the standard r-count model...particularly in the cold season , DJF...MA.  usually... what gets cold in Des Moine, ends up cooling off DAY-PWD and SE of there we wind up with a potent cyclogenesis potential -

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