40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 What use is a seasonal model that updates so regularly? It doesn't even make sense from any standpoint. Even 4x for medium range guidance is a lot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 I don't think he ever went blockbuster.....he eventually went into the camp that I did.....late start, but decent. Right..never went blockbuster..but did get a little wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Right..never went blockbuster..but did get a little wild Yea, same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 I'm excited....moderate Nina, -QBO, weak solar....not much to dislike. I thought the QBO was making a run back to positive? Remember HM tweeting that a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 I thought the QBO was making a run back to positive? Remember HM tweeting that a couple of weeks ago. I haven't been paying attention. That's both unfortunate and unsual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 I haven't been paying attention. That's both unfortunate and unsual. Here's the tweet. There's a bunch more. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/743637978636029953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 What use is a seasonal model that updates so regularly? It doesn't even make sense from any standpoint. I think they are used as ensemble members when all of the runs over a number of days with the same initial conditions are aggregated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Here's the tweet. There's a bunch more. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/743637978636029953 The QBO per Sam Lillo's work is doing something very bizarre. We are getting erly anomalies at 50mb from the bottom up and not the usual top down type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2016 Author Share Posted July 12, 2016 Right..never went blockbuster..but did get a little wildhad a blizzard and a special 2 weeks wasn't a ratter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 had a blizzard and a special 2 weeks wasn't a ratter The season was a ratter in many areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 We ratted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 We ratted Not in comparison to me, 12.1" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 40" here and I'm about 2 hours south of Irishrob. We got lucky with the blizzard. It definitely wasn't the second half we was expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 The QBO per Sam Lillo's work is doing something very bizarre. We are getting erly anomalies at 50mb from the bottom up and not the usual top down type deal. Any theories as to why? I don't know enough about it other than the downward propagating 12 - 24 month cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Not in comparison to me, 12.1" for the seasonI didn't rat. How can I say that when you had 12 and I had 47. About 12-13 " below normal. Terrible, but not awful. Funny how the April snows took some of the sting away locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 I didn't rat. How can I say that when you had 12 and I had 47. About 12-13 " below normal. Terrible, but not awful. Funny how the April snows took some of the sting away locally I was 32.1" below normal and the late snows did nothing but piss me off LOL as I was hoping to stay in the single digits for a seasonal total. If you're gonna crash, crash hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2016 Author Share Posted July 12, 2016 We ratted I didn't rat. How can I say that when you had 12 and I had 47. About 12-13 " below normal. Terrible, but not awful. Funny how the April snows took some of the sting away locallybipolar Kev is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 The QBO per Sam Lillo's work is doing something very bizarre. We are getting erly anomalies at 50mb from the bottom up and not the usual top down type deal.Looks like another +QBO in the works is coming up for this winter they are saying. The QBO is doing some real crazy stuff right now as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2016 Author Share Posted July 13, 2016 JAMSTEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 JAMSTECI would take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Didn't JAMSTEC totally shiat the bed in the range last winter? I think it nailed 2014-15 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 4 hours ago, weathafella said: Didn't JAMSTEC totally shiat the bed in the range last winter? I think it nailed 2014-15 right? I think so. I want to say that the run just a month or so back showed the entire US under a torch. So that may be a change from prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think so. I want to say that the run just a month or so back showed the entire US under a torch. So that may be a change from prior runs. Yea. It did a very good job with 2014-2015 and was real bad last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Posted this over in NYC too but it's amazing how fast the PDO is dropping right now. The North Pacific High has just been totally dominating: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 Models still aren't too bullish right now and actually have backed off a bit from a potent Nina outcome. They might be a underdoing it a bit as far as how fast SSTs will continue to drop, but a strong Nina is getting less support with even a moderate Nina seemingly not a given if you believe the models. There is still a lot of cold subsurface water. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Models still aren't too bullish right now and actually have backed off a bit from a potent Nina outcome. They might be a underdoing it a bit as far as how fast SSTs will continue to drop, but a strong Nina is getting less support with even a moderate Nina seemingly not a given if you believe the models. There is still a lot of cold subsurface water. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ The only real precedent for a weak La Nina after a super nino is 1983-1984. Not that we have a big sample size. 1878-1879 was likely a neutral year after a super nino. The rest of the years seem to be pretty potent Ninas (1998-1999, 1973-1974, 1889-1890) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 There's just so much warm water out there, although a lot of cooler subsurface water. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months. I'm definitely intrigued at what's going on. Hopefully we hang onto the -QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 On 8/1/2016 at 4:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: The only real precedent for a weak La Nina after a super nino is 1983-1984. Not that we have a big sample size. 1878-1879 was likely a neutral year after a super nino. The rest of the years seem to be pretty potent Ninas (1998-1999, 1973-1974, 1889-1890) this is purely conjecture on my part ... but, even though the statistical numbers and x-y-z observations all factually confirm the 'super nino' event ... it's effect on the atmosphere didn't seem to come with nearly comparable achievement. California drought - ... didn't alleviate it nearly as warned. that's just one smoking gun .. .but, I didn't hear much more than mediocre responses in typical climate-trouble zones across the Globe. what i'm getting at (though) has less to do with that observation in its self, but kind of an indirect usage? like, if the Nino was in fact proven (for whatever physical/planetary reason) to be less equally presented as a climate modulator across the planet (relative to it's own historical numbers), perhaps that should say something about the planet? i firmly and wholeheartedly believe that all teleconnectors, land air and sea, are only as significant as the gradients they produce. going back to 101: it's all about restoring gradients to neutral. big hot regions next to big cold regions, produce the biggest storm. everything else is qualification and news reels. doesn't matter. everything in nature is about restoration - period. without gradient, there is no reality if we really want to get down to cosmology. ..heh. seriously though, it the atmosphere? that's the whole ball-game. certainly also in how the land and/or sea teleconnectors effect, as well - so what the f is his point? my point is, if the the physical results of a super nino were only say ...(for the sake of discussion) moderately observed, than the the planet as a whole does not represent enough gradient against the Nino for the Nino to be the bigger player. taking this to the logic ends ... it opens a lot of questions in my mind as to whether the statistically derived predictions because of past behavior can be "as" skillfully predictive, if the status of the system being observed is significantly different than those occurrences in the past. so after all that ... some residue of reasoning is reserved for the question, is it possible a weaker Nina is more likely post a super Nino that was paltry and less than mechanically strong in the system? the other thing that obscures the q+a in the research on that is: if a strong Nina happens, and it is even LESS observably effecting the system, in purely relative terms, it's like both the Nino and the Nina were relegated as weaker ...if perhaps despite their own history-compared numbers. personally i think that as the Earth continues to GW it's self at a bottle rocket rate, the Nina's are more effective than the Ninos ...when thinking about things along the line of a total gradient model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2015/presentations/Session%202/d_Mursula_SORCE_talk_Public.pdf Well we are still in the declining phase. http://cc.oulu.fi/~kmursula/publications/Maliniemi_etal_JGR_2014.pdf -> However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity. So i.m.o. nothing interesting in terms of solar activity coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 On 8/1/2016 at 5:49 PM, CoastalWx said: There's just so much warm water out there, although a lot of cooler subsurface water. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months. I'm definitely intrigued at what's going on. Hopefully we hang onto the -QBO. The subsurface isn't as cool as it was a couple of months ago. Similar eroding of the "massive" anomalous subsurface pool happened with the 2014-2015 El Nino bust. I think it's possible that all of the warm water is preventing the La Nina circulation from truly getting going. The trends with the thermocline are certainly not an indicator of a positive La Nina feedback loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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