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Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early


Ginx snewx

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We gotta work on our Winter Storm Warning ratio... BOS has had 8 winter storm warning's issued since this area's last one.

Crazy to think that come December it'll be two years since my last Winter Storm Warning event I believe?

Yes it will be. We will make a run at 700+ days.

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I just thought it was a solid winter with some good storms. That December and January combo was a good one. Feb sucked but at least we had the March 2 storm.

Good snows right before the holidays in December is definitely worth some bonus points.

I was laid up in Albany on the couch after tearing my knee apart at the mountain...came home to see a specialist and spend the holidays. We didn't get as much snow as you guys but I still remember two storms giving 14-15" like within days of Christmas.

Seeing how rare it is to actually get snow and not rain around Christmas, that's a huge plus.

Would be nice to have a wintery December for a change this year...the past several have been meh.

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Good snows right before the holidays in December is definitely worth some bonus points.

I was laid up in Albany on the couch after tearing my knee apart at the mountain...came home to see a specialist and spend the holidays. We didn't get as much snow as you guys but I still remember two storms giving 14-15" like within days of Christmas.

Seeing how rare it is to actually get snow and not rain around Christmas, that's a huge plus.

Would be nice to have a wintery December for a change this year...the past several have been meh.

 

Climo still is a bit hostile on the coast....but Kevin is right about December.....it's nice to get some snows in that month. At least if you have a snowy December....you don't feel as concerned to fit good snows later in the winter. You almost treat it as a bonus and a sure bet that winter will be good when you get a 20-30" December. December 2013 was decent here...but we had a mega furnace before Christmas. 

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'08-'09 didn't have a signature KU event and wasn't as prolific as '07-'08 in NNE (that winter also didn't have a KU), so it kind of gets overlooked around here.

 

But '08-'09 was pretty impressive for a chunk of that winter...it had the big snows before Christmas, the absolutely epic ice storm in the interior N of the pike minus the CT Valley, and then January was very cold with a lot of snow events. Jan 2009 was like a -5 to -6 departure...it was damned cold. It also had almost no thaws either which helped the pack build up well.

 

Feb 2009 kind of sucked, but we did have the decent storm on March 1-2.

"Prolific" is a good word for 07-08. I recorded 21 events of 3"+ and even Fort Kent winters with 40"+ more snowfall never brought more than 17. Biggest for 07-08 was a modest 12.5", though. And Feb. 2009 showed the importance of location, especially on 22-23 when SNE got mainly rain, PWM 7" of mush to wet snow, AUG 12" of birch bender, and the Bridgton-Farmington-Milo arc 20-30" of powder. Nowhere near a KU due to modest areal extent and much more modest affected population, but the band that dumped either side of midnight was the most intense of my experience.

We've had snowy Decembers - 30" or more in 2003, 07, 08, 12, 13 - but the lack of deep winter cold has been amazing, especially compared to that month's coldest temps (compared to JFM) when we lived in Gardiner and Fort Kent. In 18 winters here I've recorded 71 days with minima -20F or colder, but only one has been in Dec (and 11 in March.) January has seen 20 days in which the temp never got up to 5F; Dec none.

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"Prolific" is a good word for 07-08. I recorded 21 events of 3"+ and even Fort Kent winters with 40"+ more snowfall never brought more than 17. Biggest for 07-08 was a modest 12.5", though. And Feb. 2009 showed the importance of location, especially on 22-23 when SNE got mainly rain, PWM 7" of mush to wet snow, AUG 12" of birch bender, and the Bridgton-Farmington-Milo arc 20-30" of powder. Nowhere near a KU due to modest areal extent and much more modest affected population, but the band that dumped either side of midnight was the most intense of my experience.

We've had snowy Decembers - 30" or more in 2003, 07, 08, 12, 13 - but the lack of deep winter cold has been amazing, especially compared to that month's coldest temps (compared to JFM) when we lived in Gardiner and Fort Kent. In 18 winters here I've recorded 71 days with minima -20F or colder, but only one has been in Dec (and 11 in March.) January has seen 20 days in which the temp never got up to 5F; Dec none.

 

 

We are definitely overdue for some huge December cold shots. We've had big ones in November and even October in the past several years, but December has escaped the big cold for the most part. We did see some general cold in years like 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2013...but the coldest shots amidst those "generally cold" months were not notable. In contrast, at least down here, we've set a lot of record low minimums and even a record low or three in October and November in the past 7 or 8 years. December has been virtually shut out except a really cheap low maximum in 2010...cheap because the day was extremely vulnerable having a record low max well above other dates surrounding it.

 

 

We had been avoiding big February cold shots for a while until 2014, 2015, and even 2016 (brief but the most intense in nearly 60 years here)....so maybe this is the year that December makes some noise on the cold front.

 

But if I had my choice, I'd just say lets have mundane cold and prolific snow instead.

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We are definitely overdue for some huge December cold shots. We've had big ones in November and even October in the past several years, but December has escaped the big cold for the most part. We did see some general cold in years like 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2013...but the coldest shots amidst those "generally cold" months were not notable. In contrast, at least down here, we've set a lot of record low minimums and even a record low or three in October and November in the past 7 or 8 years. December has been virtually shut out except a really cheap low maximum in 2010...cheap because the day was extremely vulnerable having a record low max well above other dates surrounding it.

 

 

We had been avoiding big February cold shots for a while until 2014, 2015, and even 2016 (brief but the most intense in nearly 60 years here)....so maybe this is the year that December makes some noise on the cold front.

 

But if I had my choice, I'd just say lets have mundane cold and prolific snow instead.

 

lol I don't think anyone would argue with that.  Its just got to be below freezing as far as I'm concerned.

 

But you are right about December cold lately...we've had some ridiculous November cold shots (2013 we hit -6F in November which is pretty insane) but it seems whenever we have a good cold November pattern it craps out for December. 

 

Overall, December just hasn't been a winter month since like the second half of December 2012.  We've heard a lot about Morch on the forum, but December has been just as much a dud with a few exceptions over the past 5 years.

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lol I don't think anyone would argue with that.  Its just got to be below freezing as far as I'm concerned.

 

But you are right about December cold lately...we've had some ridiculous November cold shots (2013 we hit -6F in November which is pretty insane) but it seems whenever we have a good cold November pattern it craps out for December. 

 

Overall, December just hasn't been a winter month since like the second half of December 2012.  We've heard a lot about Morch on the forum, but December has been just as much a dud with a few exceptions over the past 5 years.

Again, it's location, but I'd make an exception for Dec 2013, 31" of snow including two storms 10"+, my only -20 in 18 Decembers (actually -26) and my coldest Dec maximum at 5F on the 31st. Other than that nitpick, all is agreed. ;)

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know what I miss?  

 

2.8" of light snow and grains, flips over to light pellets and freezing drizzle/rain... glazes to about just less than a 10th of an inch, inconsequentially.

 

the winter weather advisory put up by KTAN appears in tact and verifying nicely, as temps then inch to 33.1 (save for some interior valley).  meanwhile, the forecast 18 hours of moderate rain in the mid 30s is still on the table...  until, the ageostrophic secondary unpredicted push starts a-tuckin' and the temp collapses to 31.9.  

 

i love the smell in the air when that happens.  the look of chimney smoke rising two foot off the elevation of the stack before turning due S below, and the smell of mid 30s with moderate rain burning into ashes.  

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know what I miss?  

 

2.8" of light snow and grains, flips over to light pellets and freezing drizzle/rain... glazes to about just less than a 10th of an inch, inconsequentially.

 

the winter weather advisory put up by KTAN appears in tact and verifying nicely, as temps then inch to 33.1 (save for some interior valley).  meanwhile, the forecast 18 hours of moderate rain in the mid 30s is still on the table...  until, the ageostrophic secondary unpredicted push starts a-tuckin' and the temp collapses to 31.9.  

 

i love the smell in the air when that happens.  the look of chimney smoke rising two foot off the elevation of the stack before turning due S below, and the smell of mid 30s with moderate rain burning into ashes.  

that's kinda romantic

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The chimney smoke was my weenie clue of an over-achiever. My neighbor was due north by a couple of hundred feet. In those episodes where we were supposed to change to rain and then remained stuck in the 20s......I couzkkd smell the smoke from his wood stove. When I smelled that..:I knew we busted cold lol.

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The chimney smoke was my weenie clue of an over-achiever. My neighbor was due north by a couple of hundred feet. In those episodes where we were supposed to change to rain and then remained stuck in the 20s......I couzkkd smell the smoke from his wood stove. When I smelled that..:I knew we busted cold lol.

 

Yeah its funny how back in the day, we used different clues without the real time data we have at our fingertips now.

 

Now, it's usually obvious when it's going to bust cold just by looking at the pressure field, ageostrophic flow, and temps/dews. We can see the CF making progress NW and then all of the sudden it sinks south and that's all she wrote for the warm air incursion at the surface.

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Yeah its funny how back in the day, we used different clues without the real time data we have at our fingertips now.

Now, it's usually obvious when it's going to bust cold just by looking at the pressure field, ageostrophic flow, and temps/dews. We can see the CF making progress NW and then all of the sudden it sinks south and that's all she wrote for the warm air incursion at the surface.

remember all the days in SRI watching the wind shift to SE knowing we were doomed lol, no need to consult a weatherman if you know which way the wind blows
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It's funny looking back though. I never knew about ageostrophic flow growing up. When we had those episodes of icing when we were wedged with north winds......I always wondered how the forecast could bust so badly. I remember thinking cold must be stubborn.

 

if we think about it purely in mathematical/physical sense of it there really is no such thing as ageostrophic flow. 

 

that's just a term invented when the apparent flow "appears" to violate the contours on a isobaric layout.  

 

in reality, it's just that the resolution in the lowest 100 to couple hundred millibars of the atmosphere is not discrete enough to define the orientation of the PGF's in those turbulant near-surface, "Ekman layers".   

 

what also adds to that fuzzy logic is that our unique topography of having a higher elevations W-N, while the oceanic boundary layer creates a kind of "virtual wall" that stops lateral mixing from the E ... all together creates a low level "channel" where cold conduits beneath the synoptic forcing. 

 

i kind of think of it like cave diving near the coasts, where fresh water and saline sea water stratify into layers based on their physical buoyancy. as a metaphor, when there is cold available to the 'conduit' and it is actively moving in that layer, that division in air mass separates the lower level from synoptic forcing... unless the synoptic forcing gets real large.  

 

i think i read in an AFD that ktan did local studies and found that in CAD, the interface between the top of the boundary layer and the free-gradient has to be 22 knots @ > 120 degs, or warm boundaries will have trouble.  my experience ... that's essentially true, but, i would add that if there is actually movement in the CAD layer in the sense of new cold mass being perpetually injected into the lower conduit... it takes more knots to off-set.  

 

i remember as an undergrad learning about Ekman enhanced inversions ... i remember on mornings when it was cool and misty in late April before finals, and everyone wanted that early warm spell back that seemed to cruelly vanish - so many forecast busted on warm frontal positions, seemingly like, 'up, another warm front set to fail'.   one thing i noticed, the flags had to be absolutely still or the warm front busted like every time.  interesting.

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remember all the days in SRI watching the wind shift to SE knowing we were doomed lol, no need to consult a weatherman if you know which way the wind blows

Having remembered the effects of wind direction changes since I began recording data in the early 1960s, I've noted regional differences in which directions meant what. In NNJ the wind had to be NE to N to have any hope, and even that didn't always work - the Jan 1967 storm that buried CHI gave us cold RA on NE winds. (And the weird New Year's Eve snow of 1967 brought 4" on SW winds.)

In Fort Kent, NE winds meant wide right; the big snows tended to come on SE winds, and it was the move to S that brought winter RA.

Where I am now, the smell of the Verso paper mill to our SW portends messy wx in winter. In clear wx, a SW wind mixes the aroma such that it's not often noticeable.

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Having remembered the effects of wind direction changes since I began recording data in the early 1960s, I've noted regional differences in which directions meant what. In NNJ the wind had to be NE to N to have any hope, and even that didn't always work - the Jan 1967 storm that buried CHI gave us cold RA on NE winds. (And the weird New Year's Eve snow of 1967 brought 4" on SW winds.)

In Fort Kent, NE winds meant wide right; the big snows tended to come on SE winds, and it was the move to S that brought winter RA.

Where I am now, the smell of the Verso paper mill to our SW portends messy wx in winter. In clear wx, a SW wind mixes the aroma such that it's not often noticeable.

yes, being just inland as a kid when tropical threats were talked about if I could smell the ocean it was certain we would be hit with something tropical.
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yes, being just inland as a kid when tropical threats were talked about if I could smell the ocean it was certain we would be hit with something tropical.

 

kind of wandering off topic ... but, even here about 35 mi W of Boston, when the wind turns a quick E because breeze boundaries penetrate this far inland (2 to 5pm), there is a subtle tint of seaweed in the smell of the air.  

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"Prolific" is a good word for 07-08.

 

Oh man, no doubt about that, what a fun winter up here in NNE.  Even though it was only about a half a foot ahead of 2010-2011, the 2007-2008 season still sets itself apart from the pack as the only one passing the 200” threshold for snowfall at our site.  PF will have to confirm, but in terms of NVT skiing, I think it might still set the standard for any season post 2000-2001.  I’d actually love to know how much snow fell at our location during that season though – if the valleys reaped the rewards like the mountains did, it should have been well in excess of 200”.

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Oh man, no doubt about that, what a fun winter up here in NNE.  Even though it was only about a half a foot ahead of 2010-2011, the 2007-2008 season still sets itself apart from the pack as the only one passing the 200” threshold for snowfall at our site.  PF will have to confirm, but in terms of NVT skiing, I think it might still set the standard for any season post 2000-2001.  I’d actually love to know how much snow fell at our location during that season though – if the valleys reaped the rewards like the mountains did, it should have been well in excess of 200”.

My most telling stat for how good 2007-08 was is snow depth days: 3,835 that winter, with 2013-14 in 2nd place with 2,837. Only 18 winters here, but it's still remarkable that #1 is 35% higher than #2.

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What was y'all deepest pack that winter?

48". With a solid 43" OG on 2/29 and a 10-14" "Manitoba Mauler" forecast for the next day, I figured 50s was in the bag, but the storm underperformed, with its 6" merely tying 3/31/2001 at exactly 4 feet. (Top depth came the next year on 2/23, when 24.5" atop a glacial 27" briefly had the pack at 50-51, settling to 49" by my 9 PM obs time.

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What was y'all deepest pack that winter?

 

The max snow depth I recorded at our site during the 2007-2008 season was 34”, which actually falls behind some other seasons, but it’s definitely above average.  The most impressive aspect of the snowpack that season was its consistency as judged by SDD as Tamarack noted – indeed that season represents the highest value I’ve recorded at my site as well, with over 2,500 SDD.

 

Looking up these seasonal max snow depth numbers in my data made me realize how poor the past five seasons have been in that department – none of the past five seasons have even exceeded a 25” snowpack for us, yet in the previous five seasons, 36” was exceeded multiple times, and only one season (2009-2010) didn’t get up to that 3-foot snowpack range.  I know snowfall has been below average these past five seasons, but to see how low the snowpack has been really highlights what a slump we’ve been in.  This past season topping out at a snow depth of just 11.5” seems almost unfathomable.  When valley snowpack is poor, that really hampers the potential for ski descents into the lower mountain valleys, and can also mean that the next elevation band in the 1,000’ to 2,000’ range isn’t doing all that well either.

 

Wow, and here’s a crazy stat I just saw in my data – this past season’s SDD was roughly one tenth of what it was in 2007-2008.

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Wow, and here’s a crazy stat I just saw in my data – this past season’s SDD was roughly one tenth of what it was in 2007-2008.

Guess I should be happy that this past winter's SDDs came to one-fifth of 2007-08.

Going further on the subject, I've marveled at how much better snowpack lasts here compared to your snowier location. The "snowpack retention factor" (SDDs/snowfall) at my snowstake runs about twice that at your place. I'm in the CAD kingdom, but that can't be all of it. Do you calculate snow/LE ratios for your snows? My overall ratios here run just under 11-to-1 (10.8), with events under 4" at 9:1. This is surprisingly close to the milder Gardiner (10.2) and the much colder Fort Kent (11.6). If I were to filter out all IP/ZR, the average ratios for the three locations would probably be more widely separated.

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Guess I should be happy that this past winter's SDDs came to one-fifth of 2007-08.

Going further on the subject, I've marveled at how much better snowpack lasts here compared to your snowier location. The "snowpack retention factor" (SDDs/snowfall) at my snowstake runs about twice that at your place. I'm in the CAD kingdom, but that can't be all of it. Do you calculate snow/LE ratios for your snows? My overall ratios here run just under 11-to-1 (10.8), with events under 4" at 9:1. This is surprisingly close to the milder Gardiner (10.2) and the much colder Fort Kent (11.6). If I were to filter out all IP/ZR, the average ratios for the three locations would probably be more widely separated.

I think that's all of it...the CAD difference.

JSpin does get a fair share of QPF...he's usually one of the regional leaders and you'll see him top the VT CoCoRAHS quite a bit, or top 5. He also gets fluffy snow, but is high up there on the total liquid received too. I would bet his ratio will obviously be higher than yours because of upslope, but that he also gets a similar number of lower ratio snow to your place.

All you gotta do is figure out total winter liquid in snow/mixed events and compare as that'll give a better idea than just ratio. But rain and freezing rain also factor into snowpack too...the Champlain Valley is awful at retention and JSpin and I are on that boundary between better preservation east, worse west.

I usually look at snowfall in NNE as everyone seems to have a fairly equal shot at getting the same amount of synoptic density snows, though with a lean towards the Atlantic (especially lately) but it depends on the year. If it's all SWFE stuff it's usually pretty even. Then the upslope stuff is on top of that.

In this neck of the woods, I notice your snowpack generally is similar to what 1,500ft elevations run around here.

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I think that's all of it...the CAD difference.

JSpin does get a fair share of QPF...he's usually one of the regional leaders and you'll see him top the VT CoCoRAHS quite a bit, or top 5. He also gets fluffy snow, but is high up there on the total liquid received too. I would bet his ratio will obviously be higher than yours because of upslope, but that he also gets a similar number of lower ratio snow to your place.

All you gotta do is figure out total winter liquid in snow/mixed events and compare as that'll give a better idea than just ratio. But rain and freezing rain also factor into snowpack too...the Champlain Valley is awful at retention and JSpin and I are on that boundary between better preservation east, worse west.

I usually look at snowfall in NNE as everyone seems to have a fairly equal shot at getting the same amount of synoptic density snows, though with a lean towards the Atlantic (especially lately) but it depends on the year. If it's all SWFE stuff it's usually pretty even. Then the upslope stuff is on top of that.

In this neck of the woods, I notice your snowpack generally is similar to what 1,500ft elevations run around here.

 

That may be beyond the capability of my records, as I'm not sure how much ZR is captured in my current snow-water ratios, though all the IP is (I hope) included.  And there's cold RA on a dry pack, most of which is retained by the white sponge.  I just did a quick look at total qpf versus SDDs, and over my 18 winters there's not much to see for DJF precip.  The top SDDs see a bump when March is added, but that's only 3 winters, one of which included Farmington's snowiest March ever.  Anyway, here are the numbers:

 

SDDs.............DJF.....DJFM

<1,000..........10.03...12.80....5 yr

1K-1,499......10.58....14.23....5 yr

1.5K-1,999...10.69....13.99....3 yr

2K-2,499......11.99....14.02....2 yr

2,500+..........11.42....16.56....3 yr

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We gotta work on our Winter Storm Warning ratio... BOS has had 8 winter storm warning's issued since this area's last one. 

 

Crazy to think that come December it'll be two years since my last Winter Storm Warning event I believe? 

 

that's weird i was just musing about 'big weather event' quotas in that other thread.  heh - 

 

but in a way, we are still making up the the 1980s - i realize you were probably not old enough to have experienced that decade in full sentient glory but ... we, down here, either watched the Cape get bombed, or the mountains choke under a glacier, while enduring beige grass like 90 % of the time between 1981 and 1990... swear it seems so.   

 

in fact, you still owe  - stop bitchin'

ha!

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that's weird i was just musing about 'big weather event' quotas in that other thread. heh -

but in a way, we are still making up the the 1980s - i realize you were probably not old enough to have experienced that decade in full sentient glory but ... we, down here, either watched the Cape get bombed, or the mountains choke under a glacier, while enduring beige grass like 90 % of the time between 1981 and 1990... swear it seems so.

in fact, you still owe - stop bitchin'

ha!

Haha I'm in my early 30s so yeah, my earliest weather memories are early 1990s. The Blizzard of 93 is really my first main snowstorm memory or at least the storm that got the snow obsession rolling with 4-5 foot drifts in the Albany, NY suburbs.

Just looking back on the 1980s, that was no picnic up here though either. The Mansfield Coop (for what it's worth because I don't trust their raw snowfall) had 5 straight sub-200" seasons in the 80s...the only other time in 62 years that's happened? 2011-2016.

We be living in the 1980s the past 5 winters, so at least I'm getting to experience it that way lol.

[gladwedontlivethere] [/gladwedontlivethere]

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Going further on the subject, I've marveled at how much better snowpack lasts here compared to your snowier location. The "snowpack retention factor" (SDDs/snowfall) at my snowstake runs about twice that at your place. I'm in the CAD kingdom, but that can't be all of it. Do you calculate snow/LE ratios for your snows? My overall ratios here run just under 11-to-1 (10.8), with events under 4" at 9:1. This is surprisingly close to the milder Gardiner (10.2) and the much colder Fort Kent (11.6). If I were to filter out all IP/ZR, the average ratios for the three locations would probably be more widely separated.

 

I calculate snowfall to liquid ratios in every analysis I perform, and I report total snowfall and total liquid for any storm with accumulation, but I don’t attempt to calculate snowfall ratios on a per-season basis.  That’s simply because there’s enough contamination from rain and mixed precipitation that weeding out the “snow only” collections is just too laborious.  I have to remove any observations with rain, freezing rain, or sleet.  Even with all my notes, it’s still a ton of work to sift through up to ~200 observations a season and determine which ones were pure snow.  The best route to take would certainly be to document this information throughout the season, parsing observations and collections according to changes in precipitation type.  I try to clear the boards whenever possible within my schedule and the 6-hour collection interval constraints, but I’m really not going to leave work in the middle of the day or get up in the middle of the night to try to catch the moment where rain changes to snow or vice versa.  That means that a number of observations still represent snow contaminated with mixed precipitation or rain.

 

With that said, I did suck it up once and go back through all my data to weed out storms and observations that weren’t pure snow.  I did it for the 2009-2010 season (which I think was one season with fewer storms and less contamination) as part of an extensive discussion on Eastern U.S. snow density that we were having at First Tracks!! Online.  There’s more detail in that thread, but the table below has the numbers that went into the calculation:

 

0910stormssnowdensitytable.jpg

 

There are really multiple ways to weight-average the numbers, such as 1) by storm, 2) by snowfall, or 3) by liquid content, but I averaged my data based on snowfall amount because that seemed appropriate, and came out with 7.5% H2O, or a 13.3 snow to water ratio.

 

That actually correlated fairly nicely with what was shown in the map from the 2005 Baxter et al study that was posted in our earlier snow ratio discussion, although I didn’t look into the exact methodology for their data inclusion and averaging.  I’ve added that map below:

 

Baxterussnowratios.jpg

 

That map would seem to put northwestern VT in the 13 to 14 ratio bracket – perhaps due in part to spillover of fluffy LES from the Great Lakes? – at least it looks like that could be the trend based on the way the snowfall ratios from the Great Lakes continue on that map.  If the map had fine enough detail, I have to think there would be some sort of higher ratio area mirroring the spine of the Greens to represent the loftier snow in the upslope zone, and I’m sure our location is in there, but it’s presumably too fine a detail to show up.

 

As for the difference between the SDD/snowfall for our locations, I assume it’s a combination of both the loftier snow and less preservation at our site.  As PF noted, snow preservation in our area isn’t horrible, and it’s also not the best, but somewhere in the middle.  I’d actually say PF does a bit better than my location being he’s farther east and even more protected by the spine, but as we know it just gets better and better the farther east you go into VT, NH, and ME (as long as you aren’t in the big valleys or whatever).  I wouldn’t think total liquid would be much of a factor in the SDD/snowfall difference though, since our site does have relatively high annual liquid to go with the high snowfall as PF said.  Annual precipitation here has averaged about 55” or so since I’ve been keeping records, and that’s got to be on the high side for relatively low elevation sites.  When I break that out for the liquid acquired during the accumulating snowfall season, it comes to a bit over 23”.  I haven’t broken that out by winter months, but I could do that.  Unfortunately I don’t have a great sense for what people on the board receive for total annual precipitation – there’s lots of talk about annual snowfall averages, but not about total liquid.

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