OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Was the airport closer to that band? I can't tell if it's a deformation band or not. Looks like a dryslot just SE of it. If u believe the COOPs...there was 12" in Paradise, 19.5" in both Mt. Pearl and the airport, 18" on the east end, and 8" or so on the east hills and downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Was the airport closer to that band? I can't tell if it's a deformation band or not. Looks like a dryslot just SE of it. definitely low level. There's a wind shift from NNE to NNW when that thing passes. The mesoscale models had 850s drop 5 degrees between 15 and 18z when the super band passed. Rates peaked at 2.5"/hr. during that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Scott, models had omega peaking around 850mb that morning. Not much lift above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 I hope I won't get yelled at for this but these archived weatherbell euro 850mb temp at 12z and 18z. Also, this cool shot, showing 900mb screaming out of the north and decreasing rapidly farther south across the Avalon Peninsula. Strongest 900 winds in the world, that day, btw lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 So I guess more friction than upslope? Is that result still the same in a way? The only pure upslope precip I've seen here is freezing drizzle. It's nagged me a bit in our last blizzard...the global models which had the synoptics right (GFS/Euro) only had qpf over the NE avalon of 0.8 to 1". The 06z nam and 12z nam from the day of the storm had approximately 1.6". Our WRF which uses the GFS as boundary conditions had 1.6" or so at 00z...the morning of....which continued through to 12z. Given this I was thinking it was a boundary layer non-hydrostatic issue. The airport recorded 1.8" of qpf during the blizzard. The boundary layer remarkably cooled a destabilized during the period from 12z to 00z. 850s were -3C at 12z nearly isolthermal to the surface...by 00z the boundary layer was nearly moist adiabatic with 850s cooling to -9c. There was also some kind of mesoscale cold front that passed through between 15z and 18z when the wind shift from nne to nnw. In my head reading this I can hear Will and Coastalwx saying QPF is the worst model variable out there as far as accuracy goes, lol. I feel like I've had these types of discussions before (i.e. models sucking in a significant way with QPF during strong or dynamic synoptic events) with them and Oceanstwx lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 In my head reading this I can hear Will and Coastalwx saying QPF is the worst model variable out there as far as accuracy goes, lol. I feel like I've had these types of discussions before (i.e. models sucking in a significant way with QPF during strong or dynamic synoptic events) with them and Oceanstwx lol. This system wasnt deepening but it was running into that high to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 started due east of us then ran up to the ne of us. image (2).gif Yeah that reminds me of the stuff you get when the thing starts occluding. It's not a normal CCB....almost like a lot of low level forcing with bands regenerating near the low center. My guess is that the soundings were probably a bit unstable too...especially below 700mb. We had a few of these in 2010 and 2011. Tough for me to really say without a loop of the event and seeing the progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Yeah that reminds me of the stuff you get when the thing starts occluding. It's not a normal CCB....almost like a lot of low level forcing with bands regenerating near the low center. My guess is that the soundings were probably a bit unstable too...especially below 700mb. We had a few of these in 2010 and 2011. Tough for me to really say without a loop of the event and seeing the progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 wrf precip output from 00z the night before showing enhanced precipitation over the land and less over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 It looks like a little bit of a coastal front/frictional effects. Is there usually a big temperature gradient there between just out over water and a couple miles inland? I know the Labrador Current cools everything down, but is there still some change? You also are in a really good location for deformation bands. You obviously see a lot of Nor'easters strengthen in that area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Great news for many winters to come as Atlantic goes into cold phase https://t.co/IfkYbuzvPk?ssr=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Great news for many winters to come as Atlantic goes into cold phase https://t.co/IfkYbuzvPk?ssr=true I don't know though. Looking at this graph on that page doesn't look too promising. The last couple of cold phases have some ratty winters like the 70s and 80s. We entered a warm phase after the mid-90s and winters have been much different. That is, of course, just a glance and I am not an expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 The correlation to the AMO is much less than say the PDO. Can anyone argue the winters we have had since 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I don't know though. Looking at this graph on that page doesn't look too promising. The last couple of cold phases have some ratty winters like the 70s and 80s. We entered a warm phase after the mid-90s and winters have been much different. That is, of course, just a glance and I am not an expert Pretty close to a no-effect for snowfall at the local co-op. In sequence, from the table (intervals may be a year or two off): Warm: 99.5" (Only 6 years, as records date back only to 1/1/1893) Cold: 89.8" 27 yr Warm: 86.5" 37 yr Cold: 90.7" 33 yr Warm: 88.5" 20 yr Discounting the brief 1890s record, the cold phase has averaged about 3" more snowfall per season, but the SDs for those periods run in the low-mid 20s, so the difference is essentially meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 The correlation to the AMO is much less than say the PDO. Can anyone argue the winters we have had since 2000? Thinly veiled anti-agw article? Hard to tell. The sea ice is all coming back! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I don't know though. Looking at this graph on that page doesn't look too promising. The last couple of cold phases have some ratty winters like the 70s and 80s. We entered a warm phase after the mid-90s and winters have been much different. That is, of course, just a glance and I am not an expert That is what I was looking at too. The last long term -AMO (cold) phase was from the 70's through the late 90's and the period from about 1979-2000 had a ton of winters that sucked. You can almost count all the good winters during that 21 year period on one hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Thinly veiled anti-agw article? Hard to tell. The sea ice is all coming back! LolBlaming the decline in sea ice on just the +AMO is ignorant at best. It may have a minimal effect but not what the writer suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Blaming the decline in sea ice on just the +AMO is ignorant at best. It may have a minimal effect but not what the writer suggests.I think it has more than a little effect. +AMO, warm North Atlantic Ocean, sea ice melt, it makes sense. The real test will be the new -AMO we are entering with a cold North Atlantic. If sea ice starts building up again, then the theory may not be so crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 How do we do in strong, hard ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 So how does SNE fare in a strong Niña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Why strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Why strong?As of now everything is modeling that from what I've read .. So curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 As of now everything is modeling that from what I've read .. So curious I haven't seen many models in the storng category. It's also a tough time of year to gauge because of the spring barrier as they call it. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Early Jamstec looking torched going with strong Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Doesn't look bad verbatim with cold pool NE of Maine. But that's like comparing how well a team will do for the season after like 2 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 11, 2016 Author Share Posted May 11, 2016 Doesn't look bad verbatim with cold pool NE of Maine. But that's like comparing how well a team will do for the season after like 2 games.we remember it's stellar forecast May 1 for this past winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 So Kevin must be going ratter again as he tries to find models to fit his thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 You still haven't answered my question. How do we fare in strong Ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 You still haven't answered my question. How do we fare in strong Ninas? Not very good...but definitely worse the further south you are though. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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