dmillz25 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Can a brother get a little -NAO this winter?Please. Pretty please -NAO in the summer is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Can a brother get a little -NAO this winter? Haven't been able to buy one since 2013...except that one roughly 10 day block we had this past January. Doesn't mean this year won't have it though. We still don't really know what causes it to flip on a dime some years despite all the theories. A few years ago back in 2009-2013 it was low sea ice is causing Greenland blocking...we don't hear as much about that these days after the past 3 winters. I'm still wondering if there's something with the N ATL SSTs...we saw a notable drop in SSTs there back in the spring of 2013 and ever since then we've had trouble getting a sustained -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 It is amazing how quickly we went the other way since March 2013. We have had some blocking in the warmer seasons..just not in winter. At least this season has odds of being a more wintry start for New England as a whole (aka December), than previous years like 2014 and 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 My gut intuition tells me a moderate nina is en route....I'm beginning to get hungry again, so we'll probably start delving into things relatively shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2016 Author Share Posted June 17, 2016 Can a brother get a little -NAO this winter? like you need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 +5 / 5". New JAMSTEC indicates a 11/12 repeat. Alaskan / Bering Sea vortex. It has a mean peak of moderate La Nina, with some members weaker/stronger. I think a moderate event is a solid bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Certainly possible. If predicting ENSO isn't hard enough...predicting the hemispheric pattern is even more difficult. Who knows this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frosty Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Certainly possible. If predicting ENSO isn't hard enough...predicting the hemispheric pattern is even more difficult. Who knows this far out. Or nearer the time, although with some once they have applied their own spin on things they convince themselves (and only themselves) that they are far more accurate than they actually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 +5 / 5". New JAMSTEC indicates a 11/12 repeat. Alaskan / Bering Sea vortex. It has a mean peak of moderate La Nina, with some members weaker/stronger. I think a moderate event is a solid bet at this point. HM has been posting on twitter about how highly unusual the QBO behavior is this year. He said it's actually unprecedented right now. So maybe the -QBO everyone was guaranteeing for this upcoming winter isn't really set in stone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Cold Alaska and cold Greenland. Not at all cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Certainly possible. If predicting ENSO isn't hard enough...predicting the hemispheric pattern is even more difficult. Who knows this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Prelim snow guesses: NYC: 7 inches PVD: 19 inches BDL: 22 inches ORH: 39 inches BOS: 20 inches CON: 49 inches PWM: 54 inches I stand firm. It's early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I don't see a reason for that at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I don't see a reason for that at this time. It honestly can't get worse than last year for a lot of us, lol. It can only be better for the deep interior of SNE and all of NNE. Really doesn't matter to me what the progs say because I doubt we'll go down that same road again two winters in a row. Even 80% of normal would be twice as much snow as last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 It honestly can't get worse than last year for a lot of us, lol. It can only be better for the deep interior of SNE and all of NNE. Really doesn't matter to me what the progs say because I doubt we'll go down that same road again two winters in a row. Even 80% of normal would be twice as much snow as last winter. Potent Nina is usually bad for the mid-atlantic...some exceptions of course...but for up here, it's basically a crap shoot. Who knows at this point. Pretty safe to say that for areas that were historically bad last year, next winter is going to be better. But whether that means well above normal or well below normal is another question. Both would qualify as better than last winter up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Potent Nina is usually bad for the mid-atlantic...some exceptions of course...but for up here, it's basically a crap shoot. Who knows at this point. Pretty safe to say that for areas that were historically bad last year, next winter is going to be better. But whether that means well above normal or well below normal is another question. Both would qualify as better than last winter up there. Yeah, I'll take my chances with a La Nina... even a SWFE parade would be much appreciated. I know you said it at the end of last winter, but even like 3 SWFE of 4-8" in a row would feel like an epic period of snow, haha. Anyway, you're right... can never tell if its going to be 70% of normal or 120% or whatever, but chances are it won't be 35-45% of normal so most simulations would be a step up. Its an interesting spot to be in though...sort of like after 2011-2012 for a lot of posters here. You know going into the next winter, no matter what happens, the odds are for a better winter than the previous one. Certainly wouldn't go into it expecting a 07-08 or 10-11 though (I think those are our past two Ninas, right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yeah, I'll take my chances with a La Nina... even a SWFE parade would be much appreciated. I know you said it at the end of last winter, but even like 3 SWFE of 4-8" in a row would feel like an epic period of snow, haha. Anyway, you're right... can never tell if its going to be 70% of normal or 120% or whatever, but chances are it won't be 35-45% of normal so most simulations would be a step up. Its an interesting spot to be in though...sort of like after 2011-2012 for a lot of posters here. You know going into the next winter, no matter what happens, the odds are for a better winter than the previous one. Certainly wouldn't go into it expecting a 07-08 or 10-11 though (I think those are our past two Ninas, right?). 2011-2012 was our most recent Nina. Before that was 2010-2011 and 2007-2008...though you could probably call 2008-2009 a weak Nina. It literally missed by one tenth in the 5th month...much like the "Weak Nino" of 2014-2015 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Wasn't the 2010-11 La Nina accompanied by a strong Greenland block December-early February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Wasn't the 2010-11 La Nina accompanied by a strong Greenland block December-early February? Yes. The big block actually kind of fell apart in mid-January around the time of the 1/12 storm, but the pattern remained good for the eastern U.S. into late January due to a large PNA ridge that developed. February had more of a typical gradient Nina pattern when the PNA went back negative with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 2011-2012 was our most recent Nina. Before that was 2010-2011 and 2007-2008...though you could probably call 2008-2009 a weak Nina. It literally missed by one tenth in the 5th month...much like the "Weak Nino" of 2014-2015 did. Ah interesting. Funny thing is if you take the last 10 years, the La Nina snow years destroy the El Nino ones up this way, even including 2011-2012 which wasn't completely atrocious up this way. Going to lead to some recent confirmation bias that we want Ninas, lol. Run the same numbers for SNE and its probably the years that lean towards the Nino side in the last decade average more than the Nina years, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yes. The big block actually kind of fell apart in mid-January around the time of the 1/12 storm, but the pattern remained good for the eastern U.S. into late January due to a large PNA ridge that developed. February had more of a typical gradient Nina pattern when the PNA went back negative with a +NAO. Funny as that February 2011 was huge up here... its actually BTV's snowiest February on record (130 years). We got into some of the SNE snows in January but that winter was just epic from like the January 12th storm through mid-March up here. Just constant snows and no rains, capped off with the 24-30" event on March 6-7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 2011-2012 was our most recent Nina. Before that was 2010-2011 and 2007-2008...though you could probably call 2008-2009 a weak Nina. It literally missed by one tenth in the 5th month...much like the "Weak Nino" of 2014-2015 did. Ah interesting. Funny thing is if you take the last 10 years, the La Nina snow years destroy the El Nino ones up this way, even including 2011-2012 which wasn't completely atrocious up this way. Going to lead to some recent confirmation bias that we want Ninas, lol. I knew the ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09 period was thought of as La Niña, but not that later one – boy what a subset of seasons to mention - ‘07-‘08, ‘08-‘09, and ‘10-‘11 are the three highest snowfall seasons in all of my records from the past decade. Even with ’11-‘12 coming in on the low side, the mean snowfall for the four seasons is 117% of average. I could see why one would be biased toward wanting La Niña around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I stand firm. It's early though. What makes you so pessimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I knew the ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09 period was thought of as La Niña, but not that later one – boy what a subset of seasons to mention - ‘07-‘08, ‘08-‘09, and ‘10-‘11 are the three highest snowfall seasons in all of my records from the past decade. Even with ’11-‘12 coming in on the low side, the mean snowfall for the four seasons is 117% of average. I could see why one would be biased toward wanting La Niña around here. Ha yeah, the El Nino (weak to strong, didn't seem to matter) southern stream producing coastal storms regime hasn't been overly favorable to us lately...the La Nina side of the curve seasons certainly stand out over the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Ha yeah, the El Nino (weak to strong, didn't seem to matter) southern stream producing coastal storms regime hasn't been overly favorable to us lately...the La Nina side of the curve seasons certainly stand out over the past decade. If we actually get a warning level snow this next winter I will consider that a win LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 What makes you so pessimistic? Moderate to strong nina is itself fine unless it is combined with: Positive NAO/EPO Above lends credence to JAMSTEC. But the bigger reason for my hunch is the fact that the past 15 winters (first half of the next 30 year normal) have averaged 20% higher than the long term mean for Boston. It seems highly unlikely that we go that much higher for a 30 year normal so I expect some hard regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Ha yeah, the El Nino (weak to strong, didn't seem to matter) southern stream producing coastal storms regime hasn't been overly favorable to us lately...the La Nina side of the curve seasons certainly stand out over the past decade. All good years here as well. 10-11 speaks for itself with nearly double my avg...but 08-09 wasn't far behind. I feel like 08-09 is underrated locally. One of my favorite winters. Snow from Dec-Mar. Big pack from New Years right into Feb. Pretty aweome OES CJ here on 12/20 which turned into a Ray coastal front CJ on 12/21. That December had 30-32" here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 All good years here as well. 10-11 speaks for itself with nearly double my avg...but 08-09 wasn't far behind. I feel like 08-09 is underrated locally. One of my favorite winters. Snow from Dec-Mar. Big pack from New Years right into Feb. Pretty aweome OES CJ here on 12/20 which turned into a Ray coastal front CJ on 12/21. That December had 30-32" here locally. '08-'09 didn't have a signature KU event and wasn't as prolific as '07-'08 in NNE (that winter also didn't have a KU), so it kind of gets overlooked around here. But '08-'09 was pretty impressive for a chunk of that winter...it had the big snows before Christmas, the absolutely epic ice storm in the interior N of the pike minus the CT Valley, and then January was very cold with a lot of snow events. Jan 2009 was like a -5 to -6 departure...it was damned cold. It also had almost no thaws either which helped the pack build up well. Feb 2009 kind of sucked, but we did have the decent storm on March 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 All good years here as well. 10-11 speaks for itself with nearly double my avg...but 08-09 wasn't far behind. I feel like 08-09 is underrated locally. One of my favorite winters. Snow from Dec-Mar. Big pack from New Years right into Feb. Pretty aweome OES CJ here on 12/20 which turned into a Ray coastal front CJ on 12/21. That December had 30-32" here locally. Ha true, not many years haven't been good down there since 2007-2008. I also liked 2008-2009...wasn't a banner winter but was serviceable and would be much appreciated after the past several winters. Did have one huge upslope period that winter too...Bolton Valley had 6 feet in 6 days. Weekly totals were in the 50-80" range in February 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 If we actually get a warning level snow this next winter I will consider that a win LOL. We gotta work on our Winter Storm Warning ratio... BOS has had 8 winter storm warning's issued since this area's last one. Crazy to think that come December it'll be two years since my last Winter Storm Warning event I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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