sebastiaan1973

Latest EC, good for parts of the USA and Europe. Negative NAO. Jan-Feb-Ma

It reminds World Climate Service of the winter of 1878 The Year Without a Winter: 1877-78 | Minnesota DNR (state.mn.us)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/

El Nino and the positive IOD which last one can lead to positive NAO.

Glosea6.

Thanks Ray, this solves the problem. I asked this, not just for me, but I share the link for the weather freaks on the other side of the Atlantic Fortunately Ray does understand.

By double clicking at the date (which is at 12th of august) I get the latest of your thoughts of 24th of August. And now it fits. So there is a problem with the website. Which I wanted to make clear. Being not native English-speaker, it was more difficult than I thought to do. Edit. After trying again, it remains wrong. Another way to get the right article, is to go to 'Blog archive' on the right side. Than you get the latest!

Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 Perhaps, now people do understand. First you see Polar landscape, the second is extratropical which contains much more than polar. So the description of the link and what you get is not the same.

The link says preliminary analysis of extra tropical, I get don't get this but instead polar vortex analysis. So, the title says A, but I get to see B.

What I mean is this. Please the read the link.

Thanks a lot, seems to me, there is something wrong, because when I click on the link, the website shows your article of 12th of august about the polar vortex.

Global long-range model probability maps - Met Office

The Chinese and English seasonal models. Update.

Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming - Lockwood - Atmospheric Science Letters - Wiley Online Library In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link above.

Other form

Is this okay for you guys? For us, in western Europe this is terrible. Glosea (UK)

it's the forecast from August. The next one is coming in a couple of days. I guess around 12/13 of september.

How Do Stratospheric Perturbations Influence North American Weather Regime Predictions? in: Journal of Climate Volume 35 Issue 18 (2022) (ametsoc.org) The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime.

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions (springer.com) Combined Impacts of PDO and Two Types of La Niña on Climate Anomalies in Europe in: Journal of Climate Volume 30 Issue 9 (2017) (ametsoc.org) These studies might by of interested for coming winter.

You mean this one Different types of La Niña events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere | SpringerLink right?

I think this is an important research for this winter. Interannual climate anomalies in the Atlantic-European region associated with La-Nina types - IOPscience

Glosea5 for december till february

September vs October output of EC.

A weaker than normal stratosphere at 10 hPa. EC46.q